Albania's workforce expected to decline by 24% in 2050, according to wiiw

Tirana Times
By Tirana Times April 17, 2020 15:41

Albania's workforce expected to decline by 24% in 2050, according to wiiw

April 17 - Based on a natural population development scenario, Albania's working-age population is expected to decline by 24 percent by 2050, according to a recent report by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Based on UN projections, wiiw developed two scenarios for the UN population projections: the first case scenario involves a constant natural population development while the second include zero migration case.

In both models, the working-age population aged 15-64 will shrink in all countries of the region. The birth rate remains constant in all countries and corresponds to the 2010-2015 level.

The Vienna Institute reported that, in the first scenario, however, the population decline will be more pronounced, ranging from 17 percent in Montenegro to 35 percent in Ukraine. In the second scenario, which assumes that there will be no outward migration, the decline would be less pronounced; for Albania, such a scenario would be very advantageous as without migration, the population would shrink by only 9 percent, instead of 24 percent as in the first scenario. For the other Western Balkan countries with currently high emigration rates, the result would be similar.

Overall, wiiw concludes, there have been significant demographic losses in the Western Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine, due to both the natural population development and the high outward migration. Migration will continue so long as the push and pull factors persist, so that the population of these countries is expected to shrink further in the coming few decades. In the short term, migration has positive effects, as it leads to higher private remittances from abroad and eases the domestic labour markets, benefiting the growth of wages. In the long run, however, demographic losses may affect the convergence prospects of these countries, including in terms of wages.

Tirana Times
By Tirana Times April 17, 2020 15:41