TIRANA, Oct. 7 – The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Albania’s GDP growth on lower international oil prices affecting exports and spillover impacts from the Greek debt crisis.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects Albania to grow by 2.7 percent in 2015, down from an initial 3 percent, in line with the government’s expectation which it is assisting with a three-year Euro 330 million loan.
Growth prospects for the next five years have also been slightly revised downward to 3.4 percent in 2016, 4 percent in 2017 and 4.25 percent from 2018 to 2020.
The IMF expects Albania’s inflation rate to accelerate to 2.2 percent in 2015, up from 1.6 percent in 2014, yet remaining below the central bank’s 3 percent target estimated to have a positive impact on the economy.
The inflation rate is further expected to accelerate to 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2.8 percent in 2017 before reaching the central bank’s target of 3 percent from 2018 to 2020.
Affected by a sharp cut in international oil prices with a strong impact on Albania’s key oil exports, the annual volume of exports is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2015 and drop to a mere 0.7 percent in 2016 before recovering to 6.8 percent in 2017.
The IMF expects Albania’s unemployment rate to remain at about 17 percent from 2015 to 2017. Government revenue is expected to remain at 27 percent of the GDP, one of the lowest in the region along with Kosovo.
Albania’s GDP per capita based on purchasing-power-parity is expected to slightly rise to $11,827 in 2015.
At 2.7 percent in 2015, Albania’s growth in 2015 will be higher only compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2 percent, Bulgaria’s 1.7 percent, Croatia’s 0.8 percent and Serbia’s 0.5 percent in the 12 emerging and developing Europe economies examined in the region.
The report covers the emerging and developing European economies of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania,, Serbia and Turkey.
