In a publication delayed by more than two months, INSTAT reveals that retail sales continued dropping for the fifth quarter in a row, registering a 6.9 percent fall in the second quarter of this year
By Ervin Lisaku
TIRANA, Nov. 23 – With public debt standing at the legal ceiling of 60 percent of the GDP, bad loans at 18 percent of the total credit portfolio, and remittances on a falling trend since the 2008 global crisis, the ongoing drop in retail sales is another sign of the crisis impacts Albania is facing. In a publication delayed by more than two months, INSTAT reveals that retail sales continued dropping for the fifth quarter in a row, registering a 6.9 percent fall in the second quarter of this year. Employment in this sector shaped by mostly small independent shops and open markets of self-grown products dropped by 1.1 percent compared to the second quarter of 2010.
However, compared to the previous first quarter INSTAT reports a 1.9 percent in the volume of retail sales. During the first quarter of 2011 retail sales dropped by 5.9 percent year-on-year and 12.3 percent compared to the final quarter of 2010.
The INSTAT data confirm the pessimistic expectations by both businesses and consumers. According to a recent survey by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the economic crisis affected a majority of households in Albania. Around 60 per cent of respondents say that their households have been significantly affected, compared to a transition region average of about 50 per cent, says the report which surveyed almost 39,000 households in 34 countries. “This is despite the fact that Albania was one of the few countries to maintain positive growth during the crisis. There is little variation across age groups, although the upper-income category have been less affected than those lower down the income scale,” added the report.
Detailed INSTAT data show retail sales suffered the biggest shrink in May 2011 when they dropped by 8.7 percent year-on-year. Sales in non-specialized stores trading mixed articles mainly food, beverages, tobacco dropped by 4 percent y-o-y in June 2011. A shrink was also reported in household equipment with sales dropping by 15 to 21 percent from April to June 2011.
Books, newspapers, stationery also suffered negative annual growth rates ranging from 17.5 percent to 28 percent in the second quarter of 2011.
INSTAT reports an annual average of a 4.8 percent rise in ‘food, beverages, and tobacco’ in specialized stores in the second quarter, an 8.7 percent growth in medicines and cosmetics, and a 24.6 percent increase in the trade, repair of cars and motorcycles.
INSTAT, which has been engaged in conducting and processing the population and housing census recently, has also delayed the publication of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2011, scheduled for Sept. 30
In its latest country report on Albania, the International Monetary Fund says that despite progress INSTAT still faces problems with respect to the reliability of the annual and quarterly national account estimates. In particular, the consistency between quarterly and annual data has not yet been secured.
The quality of source data also remains a major concern. “Collection, processing and use of the data from all three main sources, namely, the annual structural business survey, the financial statements of enterprises, and VAT returns to the tax authorities, need to be improved,” says the IMF.
