Importance Of Black Sea For Allied Security

By Janusz Bugajski
There are four reasons why the Black Sea region is important for the security of Europe and the Atlantic Alliance: state integrity, military security, economic cohesion, and international cooperation.
First, with regard to state integrity, weak states, divided states, and authoritarian states along the Black Sea rim are a threat to their own security and that of their neighbors. Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and potentially Ukraine are divided states where the absence of state integrity and elite consensus corrupts state institutions, fosters organized crime, undermines economic development, discourages foreign investment, and prevents regional cooperation.
These states are also susceptible to Russian political manipulation and economic blackmail precisely because they remain weak and divided. Russia and Belarus are authoritarian states seeking to limit Euro-Atlantic expansion. Belarus may prove a danger to its neighbors if it becomes fully dominated by Moscow and serves as an outpost of anti-Westernism in Central Europe. Russia itself is intent on constructing a sphere of control in the Black Sea region and a separate “Eurasian pole” to split America from Europe.
Second, regarding military security, a variety of violent threats challenge the Black Sea region, including a spillover of armed conflict from the separatist entities in Moldova and Georgia; Russian incursions among neighbors, and Russia’s military build-up. A potential escalation of armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan or between Georgia and the two Russian proxy regimes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia may also precipitate a wider conflict by drawing in neighboring powers into the conflict.
Third, in terms of economic cohesion, major energy supplies to Europe from the Caspian Basin will increasingly traverse the Black Sea region. Their transit needs to be secured from potential disruption, whether political blockages by suppliers or transit countries or deliberate sabotage by sub-state actors. Supply transit needs to be assured to all consumers and such guarantees are best served by diversifying suppliers and routes in case of blackmail or sabotage.
And fourth, regarding international cooperation, the Black Sea region connects the EU with the Middle East, the Caspian zone, and Central Asia – three areas that will be critical for U.S. and EU security interests over the coming decade. The region will remain a battleground between Atlanticism and Eurasianism, between the West and Russia as both will seek to expand and project their influences.
A multitude of other security threats challenge the region, including international jihadist terrorism, weapons proliferation, international organized crime, and potential natural disasters. As a result, a coherent strategy for sustainable security needs to be devised by the EU and U.S. working in tandem with states in the region, especially those seeking Euro-Atlantic inclusion.
Unfortunately, the EU has treated the Black Sea states beyond Romania and Bulgaria differently from the western Balkans, which have been offered the prospect of EU accession provided that they fulfill the required membership criteria. By contrast, the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) has not offered the prospect of entry to the remaining East European states. Without more effective incentives for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus, especially the prospect of eventual EU membership, the ENP is in danger of lacking sufficient momentum and incentive to promote structural reforms and substantial foreign investments.
Meanwhile, NATO may be willing to enlarge eastward but two factors will need to be determined before decisions on including any of the other Black Sea countries is finalized. First, there must be a commitment by candidate states, their political elites and publics to NATO membership. And second, there must be a commitment by the Alliance that Black Sea inclusion is in the strategic interests of all NATO and EU allies regardless of Russia’s opposition. In the long-term Black Sea inclusion in both NATO and the EU will be an important strategy for protection against expansive Russian policies that challenge and undermine Euro-Atlantic interests.