Albania’s population to decline by 52% until 2100, study says
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TIRANA, July 20 - Albania's population is expected to drop to 1.32 million inhabitants in 2100, shrinking by 52 percent compared to 2017, based on the scenario that Sustainable Development Goals on universal access to secondary education and contraception by 2030 are met.
The report published by medical journal 'the Lancet', shows that Albania's population is disadvantaged due to a low fertility rate, expected to drop to 1.17 by 2100, as well as high migration. According to a European Agency for Asylum (EASO) report in February this year, Albania continued to be among the top ten countries with the highest number of asylum seekers in Europe in 2019.
Furthermore, even in the reference scenario, the population of Albania is expected to drop to 1.97 million inhabitants in 2011, with a contraction of almost 30 percent compared to 2017.
In the global aspect, the world's population is likely to shrink after mid-century, forecasting major shifts in global population and economic power - The Lancet forecasts global, regional, and national populations, mortality, fertility, and migration for 195 countries worldwide.
The USA is projected to have population growth until just after mid-century (364 million in 2062), followed by a moderate decline of less than 10% to 336 million by 2100--the world's fourth most populous country.
The USA's total fertility rate--which represents the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime--is predicted to steadily decline from 1.8 in 2017 to 1.5 in 2100; well below the minimum birth rate (2.1) considered necessary to maintain existing population levels long-term without immigration.
The study suggests that population decline could be offset by immigration, with countries that promote liberal immigration better able to maintain their population size and support economic growth, even in the face of declining fertility rates.
The model predicts that some countries with fertility lower than replacement level, such as the USA, Australia, and Canada, will probably maintain their working-age populations through net immigration. Although the authors note that there is considerable uncertainty about these future trends.
