The EBRD expects the Albanian economy to grow by 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2012 after shrinking by 0.2 percent in the first quarter year-on-year
TIRANA, July 25 – London-based EBRD has kept Albania’s 2012 growth unchanged at 1.2 percent but downgraded the 2013 growth by 0.4 percent to 1.4 percent, according to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report published this week. While Albania’s 2012 growth is 0.5 percent above the South-eastern Europe region of seven countries, the 2013 growth at 1.4 percent will be 0.3 percent below the regional average. In 2013, Albania’s growth will be higher only compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania, while Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are expected to have growth rates between 1.7 to 2 percent, says the report. The EBRD expects the Albanian economy to grow by 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2012 after shrinking by 0.2 percent in the first quarter year-on-year.
“Albania continued to grow faster than other countries in the region in 2011 but it experienced a slowdown in economic activity in the second half of 2011 and in early 2012 largely due to the weak performance of its key EU markets, Greece and Italy. Albania’s strong trade, investment and remittance ties to these countries are likely to continue to constrain growth in the coming year, while public debt is close to the statutory limit of 60 per cent of GDP, limiting the room for fiscal manoeuvre,” says the EBRD. The EBRD forecast remains among the most pessimistic for Albania, better only compared to IMF’s 0.5 percent for 2012. The World Bank has forecast a 1.6 percent growth rate for 2012 while the Vienna Institute expects the Albanian economy to grow by 2.2 percent.
The EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects report now sees economies across the countries where the Bank invests growing more slowly in 2012 and 2013 than envisaged in May, mainly because of a downgrade of projections for growth in Russia. It also said growth remained very sluggish in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region.
South-eastern Europe remains particularly vulnerable to events in the single currency zone, says the report.
