UN reports on Albania’s progress in millennium

TIRANA, Sep. 20 – The United Nations on Monday issued the latest report on Albania’s progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDG).
With only five years to the target date of 2015, the United Nations is leading a global review of the MDGs, including the process of Albania.
“The results are to be presented at a High-Level Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly on MDGs in the
fall of 2010. As such, it will be a defining moment to galvanize new political commitment globally and to spur collective action and the effort needed over the final few years,” the UN said in the report.
The report was prepared through close collaboration between the Department of Strategy
and Donor Coordination (DSDC), line ministries of the government of Albania and the UN Country Team in Albania.
In July 2003, the Albanian Parliament passed a resolution in support of the Millennium Declaration: “Šencouraging all stakeholders to track progress in achieving the [Millennium Development Goals] MDGs on a regular basis through national monitoring and evaluation systems and the preparation of annual progress reports that encourage public debate and offer recommendations on ways to improve national Šdevelopment policies.”
The report will also be used as input to the updating of the Albania One UN Program.
In some of the future challenges the report said that achievement of the MDGs by 2015 is dependent on the ability of the Albanian economy to maintain an adequate level of growth and sustainable levels of government investments in social and human development. However, in view of the many financial and economic uncertainties in the global economic and regional environments — expected to continue
for some time, forecasting and managing Albania’s economic growth, its fiscal capacities or achievement of the MDGs are among the major challenges. It is, therefore, prudent to base forecasts of growth and MDG achievement on at least a couple of scenarios.
The government’s baseline scenario for average annual economic growth over the medium term (2010-2013) is 6.4 per cent, which may be seen as a fairly rapid return to the strong growth rates experienced in the past. This anticipated level is well above the growth projections for other countries in the Western Balkans, and even for Europe as a whole.
A somewhat more conservative forecast of average annual GDP growth in Albania over the same period is estimated by the IMF to be in the order of 3.3 per cent. The lower projections of growth are seen by the IMF to be at the limit of Albania’s potential, given both the uncertainties in the external environment and vulnerabilities in the internal environment, such as continuing high deficits and faltering confidence of households and enterprises, that could dampen consumption and investment.
A second major challenge is keeping the national debt below 60 per cent of GDP, within the limit established by the organic budget law and Maastricht threshold. Government has also committed to reducing the annual deficit to below three per cent and controlling the current account and trade deficits. Such actions will limit the fiscal policy space of government with possible tightening of expenditures. Although the government has committed itself to maintaining current health and education expenditure levels, other areas may see reductions (e.g. budget freezes and reduction in some areas, such as forestry). Increasing demands may also be made on the government and
the economy with an expected large entry of young people into the labor force over the next several years combined with returning migrants.
Perhaps one of the major challenges is developing the needed system-wide capacities in public administration, according to the report.