Unresolved issues of 2010 will haunt Albania in 2011, as political deadlock could put the local elections at risk and further hamper EU integration efforts in an unfavorable economic climate.
TIRANA TIMES
Albania’s 2011 agenda will be defined by the issues the country faced in 2010. In politics, the ongoing conflict over the results of the last elections meant parliament did not function normally. In 2010, the main opposition Socialist Party built is political platform almost solely on a single issue: transparency in the results of parliamentary elections. Politics in Albania in 2010 continued to point to a fundamental characteristic of the Albanian transition — political conflict and disputes over the functioning of the most basic institution of democracy — the electoral process. That included relying on the addiction to the intervention of the international factor – which in fact was unsuccessful in finding a compromise and resolving the conflict.
It is with this problematic legacy of the 2010 that Albania will go to the local elections in the spring. Stuck in a political conflict, there is pressure for the opposition to and the government to reach an agreement or otherwise face a situation in which local governments to stop functioning too.
The year also marked a long-awaited event for Albanians. In the 20th anniversary of the collapse of the communist regime, the so-called Visa Wall fell. Starting on Dec. 15, Albanian citizens have the right to free movement in European Schengen area. The ugly and offensive cues in front of European embassies and consular offices are now a bitter memory that belongs to history.
A great achievement indeed, but despite the great desire of Albanians to be part of the Europe, it takes more than visa-free movement. Albania’s application to become an official EU candidate was been further postponed due to the problems mentioned above with the political functioning of the country. And as long as the political conflict continues, Albania’s European agenda may be delayed at a time when it seems that there is not a lot of desire within the EU for further enlargement.
From the economic standpoint, Albania remains generally not very integrated to the larger European economy, and it managed to dodge the global economic crisis’ immediate effects as a result. However, local experts warn that 2011 could offer a real test for the economy.
As 2010 comes to an end, Albania closes two decades of political transition which has filled with tedious steps forward and back, and which somehow continues with no end in sight.
Could a last minute deal end political deadlock?
Experience has shown political parties in Albania in most cases go toward a compromise at the last minute. They bend only when they are under pressure from a third party, or under urgent pressure to prepare for an electoral race – or a combination of the two. And it seems that all these elements are now coming together.
There is now a scenario that sees the opposition refusing to enter into the local elections without an investigation of the last parliamentary elections. Although this can not be excluded, it is unlikely to happen. Edi Rama and leadership of the SP would not find it easy to order a boycott of the local elections, particularly were the Socialists are in power and local leaders think they might have a good chance at reelection.
Likewise, the government, which leads a NATO country at this point, would not be willing to go toward that scenario. The most likely thing to happen is a last-minute deal that will complicate things in terms of not allowing for time to improve the electoral law and the administration of the local elections – which will result in a yet another contested process.
Battle for Tirana as Battle of Stalingrad?
Despite the political conflict and disputes for the 2009 parliamentary elections, one can clearly see that the campaigning for the local elections has already started, particularly in the country’s capital, Tirana. The two main parties have now all but chosen their candidates. Incumbent Mayor Edi Rama’s will try to extend his decade-old rule of Tirana for another term, while the Democratic Party seems to have picked Lulzim Basha, one of its most successful politicians since 2005.
And the battle for Tirana will be one that is as hard fought as the famous WWII Battle of Stalingrad. That’s because its results have a lot of political implications for the political future not just of the candidates but the entire country.
The Democratic Party will fight for life and death to get back into Tirana City Hall, which has been ruled by the Socialists for almost a decade.
A Democratic Party victory in Tirana and perhaps in some of the other large cities that are now controlled by the Socialists would offer a confirmation of sorts for the result of the 2009 parliamentary elections and might virtually shut down the debate for the deformation of these results.
Also, a return of the Democrats in charge of Tirana City Hall would offer a good investment for the next parliamentary elections. Such a scenario could encourage the Democratic Party of Sali Berisha to go to parliamentary elections before the regularly scheduled time in 2013. A win by Basha in the local elections, would seal his fast rise within the Democratic Party. He has already held the foreign, economy and interior minister positions, and a win in Tirana would give more fuel to those who see Basha at the top of DP once Berisha retires. (Although Berisha, now in his 60s, says he won’t retire for another 30 years in the style of leader-for-life that is so common in modern democracies Albania should try to emulate.)
But the metaphor of Stalingrad is mostly associated with other capital contender in the race — Rama. He enters the race for the fourth time, but this is the first time that he is head of the SP. A loss in Tirana by Rama would have implications for his political future itself. In such a scenario, he might be unable to control his party. Critics of Mr. Rama in the SP would gain strength and try to seek his early departure following to two consecutive losses, in the parliamentary and local elections.
Governance like “state of nature”
Four or five years ago, Albania was like a noisy ferry going nowhere, all engines on full power, yet it never left the port. That’s an observation by a Western diplomat Albania made a few years ago. The metaphor of the ferry was probably the most accurate description of the streets of Tirana and other cities which echoed with the noise of the generators through which Albanians had to provide electricity to their small businesses. That noise is now history. Albania currently not only meets its energy needs but also exports what it has extra. So what happened? The solution has come from above. Albania’s energy sector, which is dominated by hydro-electric sources, is going on full power thanks to the huge amount of rainfall.
Four five years ago it did not rain much, so there was an energy crisis, now it is raining a lot so there is plenty of electricity – and the floods are back, in particular in the northwestern part of Albania, which for a time became entirely flooded.
Solving the energy crisis by depending on God to make it rain is no solution at all however. This ad hoc understanding of governance is seen in a number of issues Albania faces, not just in the energy sector.
Let’s hope that the incredible amount of flooding in 2010 at least serves to wake up government officials to build solutions that work not only in the short term but far longer.
Visa-free travel is a bitter sweet achievement
As the much-awaited decision on visa liberalization arrived for Albania, it marked an end to barriers on free travel that have plagued this country for too long.
Visa liberalization was overdue, but an important step nonetheless. Much of this is psychological though. Albanians are still likely to face issues of being turned back at the border over requirements that can be subjective in nature. But beyond visa liberalization, there are more important steps ahead. The government is focusing a lot on visa liberalization, because it wants to look good in the eyes of voters.
However, brewing in the background is an EU membership bid that seems to be going nowhere soon. Albania was denied candidate status, while Montenegro, which is barely a few years old, just became an official candidate.
The decision on the candidate status is no doubt related to Albania’s political crisis and the government’s failure to fight corruption.
While the news did not come as a surprise, it is none the less disappointing. The EU could have simply chosen to give a token nod to Albania’s population. It could have given a carrot of sorts and simply delayed opening the negotiations for when the political situation was more suitable, showing it also has big stick to use.
But, in a way, the EU’s response is also understandable as a means of pressure on Albania’s political leaders — the government and the opposition — to evolve beyond their current attitudes and try to move Albania beyond a perpetual political crisis into a normal parliamentary democracy.
Do not covet thy neighbor’s economy
In 2010, Albania’s government liked to boast about a growing economy in the middle of a global recession, while the opposition kept insisting the country was in economic crisis. The truth is somewhere in between. Albania’s economy grew in 2010, but at a slower pace than before. We are likely to see more of the same in 2011. Just this last week, Adrian Fullani, the Bank of Albania governor, warned that the economy will continue to be sluggish in 2011, despite the rosy picture painted by the government.
What happens within the county is not the problem as much as what is happening just outside its borders. Greece is going bankrupt, Italy is not doing great either, and the hundreds of thousands of Albanian immigrants that live there could lose their jobs – which means they will stop sending money home to feed economic growth in Albania and return home in droves. The story of this global recession is not over in Albania, and 2011 might still have more in store.
In the worst case scenario Albania will experience the global recession in delayed fashion. There are some negative signs at the end of the year: a dead construction sector, a weaker local currency, fewer remittances and destruction from flooding might create a perfect storm that could drag down the economy. In the end only time will tell, but let’s hope for the best as the New Year arrives.
