There has been a lot of discussion in the Western Balkans this week on the potential impact on the region as President Donald Trump moves into the White House.
The major worry is that the United States might shift its focus inward and abruptly end its decades-long investment in peace and prosperity in the region, an investment that has paid dividends by moving these societies from ethnic conflict to stability”Š—”Šand on the path to membership in the European Union.
The United States had already started to hand over to the European Union the leading role in the region, particularly in areas where ethnic hostilities continue to be a cause of concern”Š—”Šin countries like Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina. But, with perhaps the exception of Germany, a European Union in crisis lately has been a weak leader to force transformation, and the Western Balkan states are not moving fast enough to become full members of the bloc, creating a worrying vacuum, where Russia can step in to claim its lost geopolitical ground.
This is no longer a theory. The latest train provocation by Serbia in Kosovo and following statements by the Russia-backed Serb President Tomislav Nikolic that the army would be sent in next, are the latest examples of Russia flexing its influence in the Western Balkans, testing Washington during the presidential transition period, says Janusz Bugajski, a long-time expert on the region.
The one thing we know for sure is that Trump did not comment directly on the Western Balkans during the electoral campaign, which is better than receiving negative comments. However, his pledge for an America that is less interested on what happens beyond its shores are of general concern, and such an approach would have an impact in the Western Balkans as well.
Trump has clarified his NATO comments, and for alliance members that still remain outside the European Union, places like Albania, there is unlikely to be any proxy-war worries from Russia. There is also a sprint to make Montenegro a full member, which is likely to succeed. But places like Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Macedonia”Š—”Šall countries with potential ethnic conflicts”Š—”Šremain uncovered by the NATO umbrella and thus open to the type of Russian influence seen in Ukraine.
The best outcome from President Trump would be for the United States to keep its full attention on the Western Balkans, working together with the European Union, making sure a negative momentum does not take hold in the region and that Russia is not allowed to make the region part of its geopolitical games.
With the present geopolitical threat, a good solution is to fast-track EU membership for all six countries in the Western Balkans that have not joined yet. Fast-tracking Serbia’s membership on the condition that it accepts Kosovo’s independence and making sure all the countries enter as a group will do a lot to ease tensions lingering from the conflicts of the 1990s. With EU open borders and guaranteed movement of people and capital, liberal and progressive voices in the region can overcome nationalist sentiments and outside influences.
– Andi Balla / twitter.com/andiballa
