Tirana Times
Editorial Staff
TIRANA, May 17 – Almost a year prior to the general parliamentary elections of Summer 2013 two new political parties with serious claims are entering the Albanian political scene: Red and Black Alliance and New Democratic Spirit Party. The first one is led by the former deputy chairman of the High Council of Justice and the latter will certainly have as its leader the current President of the Republic, who is currently still in office.
Usually the emergence and registration of a new political party in Albania is not news. Since the fall of the communist regime, nearly two decades ago, a dozen political parties have appeared in the political scene where a few of them have managed to be represented in the one chamber parliament composed of 140 seats. Nevertheless, even with the existence of such a great number of political parties in comparison to the diminishing population size, the Albanian political scene has so far remained dominated almost entirely by two parties. Throughout this relatively long period they have replaced one another in power, thus consolidating a political system controlled entirely by them. Under the conditions of a weak civil society, the domination of the big parties has been and still is absolute, at least until the 2009 general elections.
Yet, the entry of the Red and Black Alliance and New Democratic Spirit into the political scene is not merely an added number to the inflated registry of political parties. In fact, the two new political parties might shock and perhaps bring an end to the bipolar political system in Albania, dominated by the Democratic Party and Socialist Party, currently in opposition.
Breaking this dominance might have important implications first and foremost regarding domestic politics but to a certain extent foreign policy as well or at least for some of its components.
In a sense, the domination of politics by two actors has provided the country with certain stability. The entry of these new players will probably hamper negotiations and consensus, an area where Albanian political parties are not particularly distinguished.
Will the new political parties retain a specific ideology, or will populism be enough for themנas in the case of the Red and Black Allianceנto mobilize supporters?
What will the consequences be for the main political parties, especially their leadership and specifically for Sali Berisha, the leader of the Democratic Party?
If there is a recognizable pattern of the way the political system works in Albania it would be: The winner takes all so: a Zero Sum Game. In case of five or more players in the “field” will this logic continue?
Even though there is no doubt that democracy will remain the only game in town does this mean that the quality of democracy and its future in the country will be safe?
Despite being too early to answer the above questions, the following analysis aims at offering a new and clear understanding of the trends and possible political implications:
The novelty of the Red and Black Alliance
The Alliance initially emerged as a civil movement but as time has passed it has started building gradually a more political profile, and finally transformed itself into a political party. While Albania has seen other populist leaders emerge these past 20 years, this marks the first time that a populist movement transforms into a political party. Still, though the current leader of the Alliance appears charismatic and has a growing populist profile, it is still hard for him to compete with a leader such as Sali Berisha, the head of the Democratic Party since its creation.
In the meantime we need to accept the fact that the Alliance has other populist figures such as Myslim Pasha, a retired colonel, who two years ago led the public action against the deal over the maritime border with Greece that had been signed by the government.1
The Red and Black Alliance has every characteristic to be considered a populist movement/political party. This is one way to analyze the party. But most importantly the Alliance as a movement or political party is essentially a result of society’s discontent with the current political establishment in Albania. The leaders of this movement have a great opportunity to use this level of frustration and discontent that both political parties have caused during the long transition. It is trying to mobilize supporters and raise its quotas as a political party by nourishing a patriotic spirit.
So far one cannot see clearly the party’s ideological profile. It is even harder though to understand what social class it represents. This becomes more difficult if we keep in mind that the left and right wing in Albania have nothing to do with ideology and platforms, which are viewed as a legacy of the past, where the communists were left and the others represented the right wing.
Nevertheless, regarding domestic politics, the Alliance is raising concerns over sensitive and essential issues for the Albanian society such as corruption, government failure, the level of poverty, and the deformation of democracy. The Alliance is promising an economic social and democratic recovery through– as it always claims– recovering the country’s national identity.
As for foreign policy and international relations the Red and Black Alliance talks about national unification and its activists have established branches in Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo. Nevertheless according to the Alliance, national unification should come after joining the EU.
The nationalist rhetoric of the Alliance is visible especially when it comes to Albania’s relations with neighboring countries like Greece and Serbia. In terms of this aspect of foreign policy, the new party appears to seek only partnerships with these countries on the basis of eliminating the reportedly inferior and humiliating position that Albania has had until now.
Several theses of the alliance regarding the functioning of the political system, political parties, elections etc., have increased public attention towards this new political party. The Alliance proposes the implementation of western standards in the organization and functioning of the party. As Kreshnik Spahiu, the head of the party, declared in an interview for Voice of America: “If the Americans had had an Albanian political standard, there would have never been Clinton, Bush Jr., or Obama.” In other words, with an Albanian-style political rotation, Bush Senior would still be the American president.
It is not a matter of allusion but a straightforward fact that the lack of new politics is a critical problem to the country. The current political elite are the same as one or two decades ago.
The President’s Party: the center right that pretends to represent the middle class
What has been warned for 4-5 months now finally happened. A new central right political party seems to have the current president, whose mandate expires this July, as its leader. The establishment of the new party was made public by an initiating commission headed by Gazmend Oketa, a parliament member currently detached from the DP parliamentary group. Previously he held the position of Minister of Defense and vice Prime minister (2005-2009). Apparently other distinguished figures and former officials of the Democratic Party are becoming members of this new political party. We can include here former members of parliament and new individuals not engaged in politics. The former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Besnik Mustafaj, one of the founding fathers of the Democratic Party seems to be close to this party but so far without any formal engagement. A number of renowned political personalities detached from the Democratic Party might also join the New Democratic Spirit Party. Local media has frequently warned that Eduart Selami, former head of the Democratic Party, who fled to the US in 1995 after an agreement with the current party leader, Mr. Sali Berisha, will join the leadership of the party.
Bamir Topi, one of the prominent leaders of the Democratic Party was elected to the presidential office in 2007. The Democratic Party, who supported his candidacy in 2007, has declared for some time now that it won’t support a second mandate of Mr. Topi in the presidency.
Independent observers affirm a balancing role of Mr. Topi’s power as President of the Republic, but the Democratic Party that previously supported his election, aggressively attacked him as one-sided and even accused him of supporting the socialist opposition in order to gain a second mandate.
Topi himself declared he won’t run for a second mandate but his declarations clearly assume he will be active in the political scene, even after his mandate as head of state expires. The party, whose creation became public this week, will be a central right wing party that will reportedly represent the middle class.
Yet, before representing the middle class it should contribute in creating it. Indeed, the twenty years of post communist transition have produced an extreme polarization, an extremely rich minority and a poor majority.
All at sea
If the parliamentary elections were to be held on May 15 of this year, there would be at least three significant political parties. Alongside the Democratic and Socialist parties, the Red and Black Alliance would have about the same number of seats in the Parliament, while the party of Abstention would have secured the majority of places. Meanwhile, the Socialist Movement for Integration, which in 2009 won 4 seatsנenough to play the role of king makerנwould not win any seats at all. The small parties, which all these years have failed to grow, also wouldn’t have any seats. But this parliament, although not imagined, is not real. This parliament, lead by the party of the Abstentions and followed by three equal parties, PD, PS, Red and Black Alliance, was based only on the results of a national poll that the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS), conducted on March 15. This poll suggests some trends in the future political development, which, if they get stronger, they would bring major changes to the parliamentary elections of 2013 and as a result in politics and Albanian ruling.
First of all the Red and Black Alliance, is being perceived as a very competitive alternative.
Second, the two largest parties, PD and PS, and their policies have created numerous disappointments and frustration.
Third, that a party like LSI, which isn’t based on any principals, ideology and doesn’t represent any group/political segment or social strata, is unlikely to have a successful future.
Regardless of the results of these trends there are some question marks and developments that make the future of the parliament not as clear, including who is going to control it?
First of all in the upcoming electoral battle it is clear that besides the Red and Black Alliance the New Democratic Spirit will enter the game with Bamir Topi as its leader a few months from now.
Secondly, within the next two months the current parliament will have to elect a new president, who will largely influence future political developments, including the results of the upcoming general elections.
Thirdly, the nature of the electoral system, which political parties are still discussing, may have important implications for some of the small political parties starting with LSI, the party identifying itself with the Cam community and the one representing the Greek community in Albania.
Last but not least, in the next year’s electoral battle the current economic crisis will also have a significant influence. It goes without saying that its effects are becoming more and more visible in Albania.
Without neglecting the level of influence of these three factors this analysis will focus on the possible implications of the Albanian politics in the upcoming months as a result of the appearance of the two new political parties, the Red and Black Alliance and the New Democratic Spirit Party.
The emergence of the Red and Black Alliance has troubled the two main political parties. In the beginning, the Democratic Party was more concerned but lately, there is a sign of alarm even within the Socialist Party.
The Alliance is slowly extending itself into the Democratic Party’s terrain, albeit perhaps not obviously. According to local observers the majority of people joining the Alliance are mainly supporters of the Democratic Party. Yet, the Alliance is not only taking supporters from the Democratic Party, but also causes and issues considered up until now exclusive to Democratic Party and specifically, Mr. Berisha. Such issues include: patriotism, the national cause, national interests, and anticommunism, among others. The Alliance is accusing Mr. Berisha’s government of ignoring national interests for the sake of power. The Alliance’s fight against the continental shelf agreement with Greece, which was later unanimously opposed by the Constitutional Court, has served to make heroes of the Alliance.
Despite the issues regarding international relations and foreign policy, where the Alliance is attacking the current party in power and the Prime Minister Sali Berisha, there are also several issues regarding domestic politics such as: corruption, the functioning of rule of law, democracy and other issues that the Alliance is accusing the Democratic Party of having failed in a spectacular way.
The government under Mr. Berisha has responded severely to these allegations. The parliamentary majority opened an investigation process for the deputy chairman of the High Council of Justice. The aim was clearؤe-legitimizing the leader of the Alliance.
The fact that attacks against the Alliance are coming from the right doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the only one feeling threatened by AKZ, it only means that the Democratic Party in power is much more vulnerable compared to the Socialist Party at the moment.
Seemingly the appearance of this political party has troubled the SP as well. The socialists seem frightened by the idea that they might not be able to create a government even if they come first in 2013. This might be the case if Mr. Berisha’s party makes an alliance with AK in order to control the parliament emerging from next year’s elections.
The creation of the New Democratic Spirit Party makes the political equation of 2013 even more difficult. A center right political party led by the President poses a threat to the monopoly of the Democratic Party, a monopoly it has tried to keep for the last 20 years. The socialists on the other hand are hoping that the emergence of a center right party will undermine the DP’s position and will increase their chances of returning to power. However this reasoning is based on the results of the parliamentary elections of four and even eight years ago respectively. It seems that everyone still follows the logic of the two main political parties resorting to coalitions to maintain power. In the current circumstances something like this is unrealistic. The Red and Black Alliance and the New Democratic Spirit Party have true potential to shake things up and put an end to the bipolar system that dominated the political scene throughout these 20 years of transition.
During the last elections the DP and SP were significantly close in percentage. It was in the hands of the LSI to keep Mr. Bersha and his party in power via a coalition.
It is quite likely that the first victim to suffer from the appearance of the two new political parties will be LSI, not only for reasons related to its image its political behavior and scandals, but more importantly due to the fact that with the new circumstances neither LSI nor any other small party will have the opportunity to play the King maker role2.
However, everything will depend on the performance of these two new parties. During all these years small parties have had a hard time and were never able to grow. Albania has inherited a division from the past, and to a certain extent the two main parties DP and SPA have reflected this great social division. So far it appeared that small political parties were destined to remain small in the sense that they represented small ethnic communities (e.g. the Greek minority), the Cam community or previous traditional right parties created during the Second World War such as Balli Kombetar, Legaliteti which failed to have either relevance or legitimacy.
The Red and Black Alliance and the New Democratic Spirit will either grow to be medium powers in the parliament or they will be forced to disappear. None of them represents distinguished ethnic or social communities as is the case Human Rights Party- which mostly represent Greek minority, or Cham ‘s Party .
1 The Constitutional Court of Albania voted unanimously against this agreement , something that increased the Colonel ‘s profile
2 This is the reason why LSI is appearing active in its negotiations for the presidency. It is the last chance for LSI to be an important player.
