ALBANIA’S REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Despite apparent increase in nationalist rhetoric, Albania won’t switch official policies, regardless of the election results, pushing forward its EU bid through a constructive regional role
By ANDI BALLA
Albania sees European integration as its top national priority. As a result, it views regional cooperation through the lenses of European integration, and it sees other countries of the Western Balkans as companions and partners in a joint journey toward membership in the European Union. In addition, as the only country in the Western Balkans that was not part of the former Yugoslavia, Albania views regional reconciliation through the prism of ethnic Albanians in the former Yugoslavia נchiefly through Kosovo נbut also though the rights of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia, southern Serbia and Montenegro.
At this time, Albania’s EU progress is being shaped by internal developments in the country, such as political competition related to the June 23, 2013 general parliamentary elections as well as a growing sense of unease with the economic effects of the European crisis, chiefly in Greece and Italy, are having in Albania.
The political climate for 2013 has seen its ups and downs, but it has been shaped primarily by the need to hold general parliamentary elections that meet the best international standards, a key requirement not only for furthering Albania’s EU bid, but also to end a prolonged transition to a well-established democracy. These elections are key to Albania’s progress toward the European Union, as the country has made little progress since it officially applied for membership in 2009, primarily because of a lack of political consensus among the key actors in government and opposition.
As Albania goes to the polls in June, the economic climate in the country is top of mind. The economy and jobs are the issues that Albanians overwhelmingly want the next government to address, leaving far behind as insignificant issues relating to nationalist rhetoric, which saw an increase during the celebrations of Albania’s 100 years of independence in late 2012 and the establishment of the country’s first modern nationalist party ahead of the 2013 parliamentary elections. Such increase was only temporary, however, and it did little to steer Albania away from its traditional constructive approach to regional issues.
Rhetoric aside, Albania continues constructive regional approach
On 28 November 2012, Albania marked 100 years since the declaration of independence from the Ottoman Empire. The centenary celebrations marked a rise in national pride and were celebrated across Albania as well as by ethnic Albanians in the region and in the Diaspora. However, in addition to congratulatory messages, there was also some concern in the region in regional, EU and U.S. circles due to rhetoric perceived as nationalistic among political actors in general and elected leaders in particular. There were fears that Albania would shift its policies toward a more aggressive nationalist stands, however, in the long run, those fears proved unfounded.
During the celebrations, Prime Minister Sali Berisha made remarks that angered the neighbors נreferring to “Albanian lands” in Greece, Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and southern Serbia. Greek and Macedonian top officials canceled visits to Tirana as a result, saying such comments do not help friendly ties in the region. Berisha’s spokeswoman later explained he was speaking in a historical context and the prime minister and other Albanian leaders, including President Bujar Nishani have reiterated Albania’s official policy of “uniting all Albanians inside the EU” not through border changes.1
One of the reasons the prime minister turned to nationalist rhetoric was largely for electoral purposes ahead of the parliamentary elections, after seeing a threat in the polls of the Red and Black Alliance, a new party set up as a classic protest movement with nationalist overtones to take votes from Berisha’s ruling Democratic Party and other established parties. As Albert Rakipi of the Albanian Institute for International Studies points out in a recent newspaper interview, “This increase in nationalist rhetoric should be seen in the context of the next parliamentary elections. For 20 years, the Democratic Party and Berisha himself have claimed a monopoly on the national cause. With the emergence of Red and Black Alliance, that perceived monopoly and the votes that come with it are no longer safe.”2
The alliance is a radical, centrist group of mostly young people who have not been involved in politics in the past and see nationalism as a means to show their anger at the political establishment. While it campaigns on a series of social issues, nationalism is at the alliance’s core, and it has sought to hold a referendum for joining Albania and Kosovo and offer citizenship of the Republic of Albania to any ethnic Albanian anywhere in the world who wants it – a move chiefly aimed to benefit ethnic Albanians in Kosovo who cannot travel to much of the European Union visa-free as can the rest of the region. Prime Minister Berisha made a similar proposal on the passport offer, leading some analysts to point out he was using the alliance’s ideas to get more votes.3 However, months after the prime minister made the remarks, it became clear there would be no official action on the matter, as it would hurt Albania’s own commitments to the EU.
It also appears that just one month ahead of the general elections, the RBA has lost much of its steam as there has been a departure of core leaders after coalition negotiations with the opposition Socialist Party failed.4 Though the Socialist and the RBA have incompatible political aims, the Socialists say they were hoping to create the largest opposition front possible. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the RBA was a new element is Albanian politics, and it made a mark by forcing some debate on what Albanians refer to as the national issue.
European and American officials have urged all Albanian political actors to shelve the nationalist talk in favor of the type of patriotism that aims to improve quality of life and development, pointing out that nationalism is inherently contrary to the EU project.5 In fact, Albania’s official policies never changed during the period in questions, and as the approach of the general elections, it appears the nationalist rhetoric has diminished, and Albania has in spirit, as well as on paper, returned to its previous position of a constructive role in the region, seeing the Albanian national issues in line with EU priorities. However, depending on the election results, the RBA and other parties such as those representing the Cham community6, will continue to create headlines on issues that might cause concern among Albania’s neighbors.
EU hopes shaped by political climate, elections outlook
Albania will hold parliamentary elections on June 23, 2013 in a process that marks the seventh consecutive general parliamentary elections since the fall of the communist regime. Despite implemented reforms and general progress the country has made over the years, these upcoming elections will be a test of the willingness and ability of the country’s political elite to leave behind a legacy of political conflict and accusations of rigged elections. The June parliamentary elections, which decide the composition of Albania’s 140-member parliament, will also be a test for the Albanian society in general, measuring the extent of its modernization and democratization. Moreover, the elections will be crucial for the country’s well being and economic development at a time when Albania is increasingly feeling the effects of the European economic crisis. 7
The outcomes of the elections will be very important for Albania in every aspect. However, having another problematic process would constitute a setback that would be very detrimental to the aspirations and expectations of Albanian society. On the other hand, if the elections process goes smoothly and its outcome is accepted by all actors, it would mean a new start for the country, which has been paralyzed for much of the past four years due to a political stalemate between the two major political parties.
Despite the concerns over the elections, Albania has come a long way in the past few years. The country became a NATO member in April 2009 and since 2010, along with the rest of the Western Balkans8, Albanians citizens have been able to travel without visitor visas to the Schengen Area, which encompasses most of the European Union and some allied states like Switzerland and Norway.
These successes notwithstanding, Albania’s EU bid has not moved forward as quickly as most Albanians would like.9 The country applied officially for membership in the European Union in 2009, but the European Commission has been reluctant to grant the country candidate status, a first step in this process, because of failing to meet criteria requiring political consensus. As a result, Albania has received three negative answers in a row on its application to advance the EU bid.
Albania’s government and opposition blame each other for failing to obtain candidate status. Both the ruling and opposition parties see European integration as a major objective for Albania, yet the government and opposition have failed to work together to speed up the process. The upcoming elections are now seen as a key test that can help advance the EU bid through holding consensual processes.10
Albania’s progress in preparing for EU membership also depends on the success of domestic reforms, starting with the normal functioning of the political system and institutions. In this context, a normal election process that is legitimate and based on the legal framework would be an investment that will help the country move in the right direction.
However, if there are problems during the 2013 elections, it would not merely mean that Albania would maintain the status quo. A controversial election process, in which the laws are not respected and international standards are not met, would actually constitute a setback that would be very detrimental to the aspirations and expectations of Albanian society. Unfortunately, consensus is rare commodity in the political life of post-communist Albania. A lack of will and an inability to assert legitimate power through democratic election processes is at the core of the ongoing deep political disagreements and a permanent clime of political conflict of the past two decades. 11 The next few weeks will show if Albania is ready to leave these negative trends behind.
Economy now the chief concern
Despite the political conflict and nationalist rhetoric, it is concern about the economy and jobs that actually lead Albanians’ list of worries as the country approaches general parliamentary elections, according a countrywide study recently released by the Albanian Institute for International Studies.12 The survey indicates that Albania is clearly at the height of its own economic crisis, so the findings are not surprising, as the country is feeling the worst effects of the European economic crisis.
Two thirds of the Albanian citizens asked described the economic situation in Albania as either bad or very bad followed by 22 percent which said it was average and a small group of 7 percent that said it was good. Virtually none described the economic situation as very good. As for future expectations the majority, 32 percent, expects no change in the economic outlook, 29 percent say that it will improve and 21 percent expect deterioration. Against this grim economic reality and picture of concerns, a staggering number of 61 percent of Albanians would leave their country if they had an opportunity to do so legally.
But the nearly one third of Albania’s citizens who have already immigrated in the past two decades are part of the equation as well. Albanian workers abroad and the remittances they send to their families play a huge role in the economic well-being of Albania. With many Albanians in Greece and Italy unemployed, the effects on those who rely on their financial support has been very hard in many cases. But beyond remittances, there are indications the migration flows themselves might be changing due to the crisis. About 1.1 million Albanians live in the EU, with Greece and Italy holding the lion’s share. These are also two countries that are suffering most from the crisis. Many Albanians migrants who have not been able to find work abroad are either returning home or thinking about doing so. 13 But they are also coming home to a place where unemployment is already very high and where the economic crisis is now at its highest point. Some of have been able to set up work for themselves in agriculture and small businesses, but the jury is still out on how well they will do reintegrating in the Albanian society and market.
In the past few years, Albania was showcased across Europe as an example of economic success, because the country appeared to weather the economic crisis better than the rest of the region. The different picture seen now is a result of Albania’s lack of integration with global markets and the low starting point of development. As a result, effectively, there is a lag from the time the crisis hit the rest of the continent to when it hit Albania, which is now seeing its worst effects, even as recovery is underway elsewhere.
With that backdrop, it is understandable, why economic concerns trump everything else – particularly nationalist causes, for which there appears to be little appetite in Albania. According to the same AIIS survey quoted above, nationalist agenda issues are being mentioned by only 2.2 percent of people in Albania who pick unifying Albania with Kosovo as a priority while only 1.8 percent speak about protecting the right of Albanians living outside the borders of Albania as top priority for the next government. To give a sense of how low that number is, 3 percent was the error margin of the survey.
The study’s authors point out that both these questions’ answers underline the fact that Albanians have pragmatic rather than high-cause nationalistic priorities and focus their interests in measures for economic development, fight against poverty and new job openings. Very few citizens seem to want the next legislative and executive undertaking nationalistic endeavors of any kind. However, despite the insignificant number of Albanians who saw nationalist issues as a key priority, when asked whether they would vote for unification with Kosovo would be a positive or negative thing, 60 percent say it would be positive.14
Back to the future
Despite the recent spike in nationalist rhetoric in Albania, which caused concern among its neighbors as well as Albania’s strategic partners – the European Union and the United States נthe country never shifted away from its policy of being a stabilizing factor in the region. Much of such rhetoric was related to the celebration of the 100 years of Albania’s independence and was done in the historical context – quickly subsiding in the following months. The general elections campaign also provided some of the fuel for Albania’s newly-found focus on the national cause, however there is clear evidence that there is very little support for nationalism in Albania, and the country continues to place EU integration ahead of any other philosophy.
Albania does care about and does support the well-being of ethnic Albanians in the former Yugoslavia, but it does so within the bounds of its EU perspective. Furthermore, as it pertains to reconciliation in the region, the relationship between an independent Kosovo and Serbia and good inter-ethnic relations in Macedonia are of particular interest to Albania, which has stated repeatedly its official policy of not seeking to enlarge Albania but rather aiming to have all Albanians come together as EU citizens when all countries of the region join the European Union. As a result the country’s role in the region should be seen as very constructive, as one of the companions in the joint Western Balkans path toward EU integration.
Beyond the regional outlook, Albania has a few critical months ahead as it hopes to organize free and fair elections free of irregularities and that are fully recognized by all parties involved. A success in the elections process and an end to deadlock would mean finally moving the stalled EU integration process forward and hopefully help the next government avoid any political turmoil as a calm political climate is needed to address rising economic concerns.
The 2013 parliamentary elections mark an opportunity to depart from the negative practices of the past and create a new, healthier climate with clear results and parties that accept each-other as winners and losers and then go on working together for a better country. If Albania goes to the elections with pending problems, such as a halved Central Elections Commission, it would delegitimize the process somewhat, and it could be used by the losers to perpetuate the trend of not accepting results and boycotting institutions. As such the key political actors must end the friction that is negatively affecting the work of the top official elections managing body or risk undermining the legitimacy of a process and live up to the country’s poor reputations with elections.
Despite the political situation, it is actually concerns about the economy and jobs that lead Albanians’ list of worries as the country approaches general parliamentary elections. The next Albanian government will have to work hard to bring the country back to strong economic growth. Albania’s should continue to focus on the achievements of the past decade – clear improvements in order and safety, infrastructure, energy supply and property rights – while making sure that the political climate assist in fostering a better business climate.
Last, but by far not least, the European Union needs to push harder and smarter in helping move Albania’s bid forward so the country can be granted official candidate status and start membership negotiations. While Albanians overwhelmingly support EU membership and the stalled bid has been so far billed to Albanian political actors not doing their homework, if EU membership keeps staying as far in the distance as it currently is, it cannot exert as much gravity as Albania’s society needs to affect the cultural and developmental shift needed for eventual membership.
1. Koha Ditore quoting President Nishani’s interview in a Kosovo radio station http://www.kohaditore.com/index.php/repository/docs/10FARUK.pdf?page=1,14,126467
2. “Newly nationalist prime minister stirs worry” Tirana Times, Dec. 6, 2012
3. “Albanian Passport Offer Makes Waves in Balkans” Balkan Insight, Dec. 10, 2012 http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/albanian-citizenships-stirs-regional-interest
4. Several privately-funded polls have shown the Red and Black Alliance might not get any seats in the Albanian parliament, however pre-elections survey polls in Albania have often been proven to be unreliable.
5. “Germany, U.S. tell Albania to shelve nationalist talk” Tirana Times, Feb. 22, 2013 http://tiranatimes.com/news.php?id=14822&cat=1
6. Chams are ethnic Albanians expelled from Greece after the end of the Second World War. Their party had two members in the 2009-2013 parliament and pushed for a resolution seeking property rights for the Cham Albanians who were forced to leave their lands and homes in northern Greece, accused of cooperation with Fascist forces during the war.
7. “Elections and political parties in Albania since 1991” 2013, Tirana Centre for Journalistic Excellence http://tcje.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Elections-2013-Executive-Briefing-ENGLISH.pdf
8. All of the Western Balkans have visa-free arrangements with the EU with the exception of Kosovo.
9. “The European Perspective of Albania: Perceptions and Realities” 2012 Albanian Institute for International Studies
10. “EU’s Fule: Elections are key to progress” May 5, 2013 Tirana Times, http://tiranatimes.com/news.php?id=15144&cat=1
11. “Elections and political parties in Albania since 1991” 2013, Tirana Centre for Journalistic Excellence http://tcje.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Elections-2013-Executive-Briefing-ENGLISH.pdf
12. “The State of the Albanian Democracy on the Eve of the 2013 General Elections” 2013 Albanian Institute for International Studies.
13. “Hard times in Greece prompt Albanians to return home” Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/06/01/us-albania-greece-migrants-idUSTRE6503WB20100601
14. AIIS experts presenting the findings noted that the discrepancy between the little interest in a union between Albania and Kosovo and the high number of those saying they would vote for one is likely a matter a those responding to the survey wanting to be “patriotically correct” in their answer rather than an indication of actual support.
