By Alan Andoni*
Two days ago, a British-born friend of mine admitted that he had voted Brexit, in part because ‘there were too many foreigners in the UK.’ His wife is not British and his own parents had come to live in Britain from abroad after WW2. One of his children is married to an overseas citizen. He said that his was a protest vote, a signal of discontent to the government and that he didn’t expect a majority to vote to leave Europe. He was genuinely shocked when the results were announced. He’s now worried for the future.
His is not an isolated case. Voices are being raised in the media from those who claim that they were voting in protest and didn’t want a Brexit to happen or that they were misled by claims from the Brexit leaders. An estimated 10% still hadn’t made up their minds on the day of the election perhaps voting at the last minute on the basis of who shouted the loudest with the best headline grabbing slogans. A survey in the London Evening Standard on 22nd June suggested that, based on circulation figures, just under 50% of the newspapers was in favour of leaving the EU and just under 33% against, with the remainder undecided.
Some say that the pro European campaigners were perhaps a little complacent and didn’t state their case as powerfully as they could have done. Others claim that the anti-European campaign was confusing and misleading. They relied on sound-bites which heavily focused on ‘stop immigration’ and ‘£350 million pounds of British money lost to the EU every week.’ The trouble was, that this latter figure was unverifiable and, when pressed, one of the leading proponents of Brexit stated that this figure was ‘ a mistake’. This ‘mistake’, however, was give widespread currency during the campaign, not least by the media.
Immigration was another pull to Brexit. Many, like my friend, feel Britain has too many immigrants already and doesn’t want any more. This fear was taken up by the pro Brexit campaigners. However, they were not explicit in saying how they could reduce or stop immigration other than making a vague reference to an ‘Australian points system’ Over the last few days, the pro-Brexit leaders have admitted that it would be impossible to stop immigration altogether and they should still allow foreigners to come to the UK if they had jobs. This was not what many pro Brexit voters wanted to hear. Indeed a large number hoped that by leaving the EU, some of the immigrants already here would have to return to their countries. Although the pro Brexit lobby had never suggested this, they did little to disavow voters of this belief.
There is now a dawning realisation in the UK that the referendum has greater long-term consequences than an X factor vote. Within a short period the pound lost its value by 10% and the Euro took a plunge with it. This short sharp knock is a sobering reminder that the world’s financial markets don’t like the uncertainty that change brings. The two main political parties are in turmoil as the prime-minister has resigned and the leader of the opposition is under pressure to go.
In addition, those Pro Brexit leaders who proclaimed that ‘Britain would be great again’ are now faced with a Scottish referendum and the potential break-up of the United Kingdom Thus, while waving the British Union Jack flag which is composed of the English, Scottish and Irish crosses, there is the possibility that in a few years time UK citizens may only be able to raise the flag of England with just the George Cross on it. While it might be good to do at a football match, it’s less appropriate at the diplomatic table or the United Nations. The Brexiters may have to explain exactly how a truncated United kingdom composed of an independent England and Wales, and possibly Northern Ireland, on their own, surrounded by tariff barriers of their immediate neighbours and other regional economic blocs across the globe, could become great again.
Some claim that another reason for the Brexit success is that the younger voters stayed away, or those most likely to vote for Europe. There is now a growing anger amongst younger people as they feel that their future has been ‘hijacked’ by their elders who do not understand modern life and do not understand the EU. Those in favour of leaving Europe claim that those voters who stayed away should have voted in the first place, and that they shouldn’t be allowed a second chance just because the result didn’t go their way.
If there is another referendum, as some people have asked for, the result could swing the other way for a number of reasons This time the younger generation are more likely to vote, thus increasing the ‘remain’ vote. Secondly, those who made their protest the first time round have felt that they have made their point and may then vote for ‘remain’. Thirdly, the ‘Make Britain Great Again’ lobby have realised that the alternative to EU membership could be international isolation, which is not what they voted for. To some there is the thought that exiting is not going to be so easy, and that the consequences may be a completely disunited Europe with a potential for interstate conflict, thus unravelling 70 years hard work in Europe the wake of World War 2 .
In addition, The campaigners for Brexit have lost their main planks for leaving, namely to ‘reduce immigration’ and ‘recover money lost to the EU’. It is possible that those who enthusiastically voted to leave Europe are now confused and demoralised and are more likely not to vote a second time. Finally, it is possible that some of the older generation may well come to the conclusion that it is not for them to decide the fate of Britain of the next 30 years. If all these factors are taken into account, a second referendum could yield radically different results from the first.
From a European standpoint, a second referendum and a pro-European vote would send a strong signal to would-be Euro-sceptics in other countries that if the sceptical British realise that their future is in Europe, then perhaps they should accept that their future is too. This is also a warning to European leaders who want a Federal Europe that they should perhaps slow the process down a little. This is exactly what many British wanted in the first place and through a rather roundabout, tortuous and difficult process, they may well get what they wanted, in other words a United, but not a Federal -Europe.
However, at time of writing, a second referendum seems unlikely and political and economic changes will continue to unfold both within Britain and outside akin to the final act of a Shakespearian play.
*The author is British and Alan Andoni is the pen name.
