As Albanians head to the polling stations on Sunday, there are several elements at stake for the health of Albania’s democracy and the future of the political actors involved.
A key aspect of these administrative elections is that despite aiming to elect local managers, they are also deeply political in the Albanian context. They serve as a political battle between the ruling Socialist Party – Socialist Movement for Integration coalition, in power at the national level, and a smaller coalition led by the opposition Democratic Party. And thus, often instead of programs and solutions, the campaign showed that these two coalitions see the elections as a political battle.
The Socialist-led coalition is looking to show that it has maintained the wide voters support it received in the 2013 general elections. These local elections come after two years full of reforms and measures by the central government which have affected large parts of society. Some of these actions have been controversial and/or tough and could have an effect about how certain portions of the electorate feel about the ruling coalition.
In addition, the governing coalition risks losing some of its support in the context of a prolonged economic unease, lack of new investments, lower than projected job numbers and an increase in taxes.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party-led opposition has publicly portrayed the elections as a referendum against the Socialist government. It sees that any positive results for the opposition would be able to create a suitable climate until the next election in 2017.
The electoral campaign showed that Prime Minister Edi Rama took personal control of the national campaign. And whether the results are positive or negative for the Socialists they will reflect on Rama’s own performance.
On the other hand the Democratic Party’s Lulzim Basha faces his first electoral test as leader of the opposition after transitioning into the post following the humiliating defeat the Democrats suffered in 2013, and the departure of their previous perennial chairman. As a result, how well the Democrats perform in these elections could have a strong impact on Basha’s political future at the helm of the party.
Inside the Socialist coalition’s too there are competing interests. The Socialist Party and the smaller Socialist Movement for Integration are looking to place as many of their own local council members as possible after reaching an agreement to split the mayoral candidate seats. This competition could determine the future leadership of the left in Albania. If SMI increases its reach, it would further progress its previous trend of slowly but surely eating away at the Socialist Party, from which the SMI and its leader Ilir Meta split ten years ago.
In addition, there have been some problems ahead of the elections. The first deals with the parties having fielded candidates with criminal pasts and a clear lack of will to fully engage in what has been dubbed the “decriminalization process.” This week, foreign diplomats leaked names and evidence to the media regarding three such candidates — a welcomed move. It is now up to voters to decide. Whether they win regardless, will offer a commentary on the state of Albanian society and democracy.
Second, there has been a lack of transparency on campaign funding. Millions have been spent without a clear declaration of who is paying and what they expect in return.
Third, problems that hurt the fairness of the election have been noted, including allegations of vote buying and last-minute registration of new voters from other areas in municipalities with tight races.
Whatever the outcome, there other elements of importance to note.
The voter turnout will be very important to measure the health of democracy and the legitimacy of the new local authorities.
Another predictor for the well-being of democracy will be the amount of support given to independent candidates, particularly in Tirana where there is a strong third-choice candidate for those fed up with Albania’s traditional political class.
Some conditions must be met to call these elections a success. The voting process must be normal and accepted by all parties, and observers must certify the elections as meeting international standards in order for the next municipal governments to have full legitimacy and stability of governance for the next four years.
If that process goes well, it will constitute an important step in the consolidation of the democratic system in Albania.
These local elections also mark the first time that Rama is in charge of the government as elections take place. Thus, despite having nominally independent election authorities, it will also serve to test his ability to oversee a free and fair process – something that he maintained his political rivals did not do for him when he was in opposition.
After the elections are over, and if the process is smooth and uncontested, the real challenge will be to see how local governance works following the drastic changes made under the country’s new territorial division.
