The enigma of the Albanian parliamentary elections continues unresolved. In fact, Sunday’s elections are heading towards the new enigma of neither of the coalitions being able to form the new government. After a drawn-out, controversial counting process, contested by the opposition in several districts, none of the coalitions is likely to reach the necessary parliamentary majority to form a government. The DP-led coalition has assured 70 seats in the next parliament. The other 70 seats are shared between the two opposition coalitions. The coalition led by the Socialist Party has won 66 seats while the one led by the Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI) has won 4.
As the counting process continues, two issues are of crucial importance. First, what do these elections mean in terms of the international standards of free and fair elections? Second, what kind of governance will the results of these elections produce if indeed the final results will enable the formation of a government?
On the first issue, it can be safely asserted that these parliamentary elections marked admirable progress in comparison to the rather conflictual and controversial electoral past. Indeed, local and international observers affirmed a series of achievements. They likewise pointed to a serious problematique, though, that continues to hold Albania back, and far from international standards of electoral conduct. Furthermore, as if the problems that marked the campaigns and the voting process were not to suffice, the counting process and the administration of results is almost going by the old Albanian book, the book of conflicts, disputes, extreme politicization and ultimately of contested election results. The reaction of the opposition and that of international observers to this phase of the process remains to be seen. And so does the full and detailed evaluation of the successes or failures that accompanied these elections.
On the second issue, once the results of these elections are declared by the Central Election Commission, as expected to happen soon, that the biggest opposition party, the Socialist Party has lost the elections will be safely affirmed. Of equal certainty is the affirmation that the Democratic Party of incumbent Premier Berisha has not won the elections. It may seem absurd to state that while one main party has lost, its main rival has not won. The loss of the SP can be first and foremost read in figures. Altogether, the coalition the SP leads has won only 66 seats in parliament vis-ஶis the 70 seats assured by the DP-led coalition. On a national scale, the SP popular vote, or rather the popular vote of both leftwing coalitions has failed to translate into a parliamentary majority, even though it is bigger compared to that of the DP-led coalition. The SP loss is evident from another perspective too. With a young leader propagating a new political vision at the helm, the SP has lost the contest with the Democratic Party led by Sali Berisha who belongs to the generation that toppled communism and who has been central to ‘old’ politics.
The immediate question still remains unclear – where are these elections taking the country? Can the draw between the government coalition and the two leftwing ones produce a stable government? It is both theoretically and practically possible for the coalition of Premier Berisha to look beyond itself to form the necessary majority in parliament. The institutional path would be an invitation to the Union for Human Rights Party (PBDNJ) which has won one seat in parliament. This would be no surprise. A government supported by only 71 seats in parliament, however, would not be stable. The risk of going to early elections would haunt its every step, action and decision. In terms of numbers, sharing governance with the leftwing SMI would enhance stability. Is SMI willing to take such a step, however? Premier Berisha has already announced the idea of enlarging the coalition. The primary matter is whether there will be a formal agreement with the Union for Human Rights Party and with SMI that would assure 76 seats for DP’s government? Or whether enlarging the coalition presumes invitations to specific deputies willing to offer themselves in the market? And in this latter case, can such an enlargement of the coalition of Premier Berisha be legitimate and enduring?
Last but not least, according to local experts, the possibility of Albania heading to the ballot box again is not to be excluded.
