By Jerina Zaloshnja
On Wednesday, Albania’s President Bamir Topi decreed 28 June, 2009 as the day on which the next parliamentary elections are to be held. These elections, the fifth since the collapse of communism, will constitute a crucial test for the still fragile Albanian democracy. A questionable electoral process that falls short of international standards, (something which unfortunately has been routine over these last twenty years in Albania), is entirely out of the question now and unacceptable.
When parliamentary elections come around on 28 June this year, Albania will have become a member of NATO. Likewise, when Election Day comes around Albania will have submitted its application for EU membership. A member country of the North Atlantic Alliance, and also a country applying for EU membership cannot possibly hold anything other than free and fair general elections. However, the fear is still poignant. This is based on the highly problematic experience of past electoral processes in Albania, which have led to the destabilization of the country. In this sense, the upcoming 28 June parliamentary elections will constitute a real test for Albanian democracy and its maturity. A free and fair round of elections that meet international standards would mark a turning point in Albanian politics. The opposite, a failure of the electoral process, would have a very adverse effect on efforts to join the EU, irrevocably damage the country’s image, while, as regards internal consequences it goes without saying that the failure of these elections would seriously jeopardize internal stability.
The upcoming elections are, first and foremost, a test for the government and, in particular for Prime Minister Berisha. Berisha, the former leader of the anti-communist movement at the end of the eighties’ led the first non-communist party of Albania to victory in the parliamentary elections of 22 March, 1992. For five years on end, Berisha, the first President in a post-communist Albania, led the world’s most self-isolated country towards deep-going reforms. However, the 1996 elections raised serious question-marks regarding his democratic credentials. These parliamentary elections, the results of which were not accepted by the Opposition, were accompanied later on by the devastating crisis of the collapse of the pyramid schemes and the country plunged into anarchy.
The socialists, who came to office after this crisis, kept Mr. Berisha and his party in the opposition for eight years. During two lots of electoral processes Berisha and his Democratic Party in opposition claimed the elections had been rigged. Irrespective of this, in the parliamentary elections of 2005 the socialists in office managed to realize an electoral process for which the Opposition and its leader Sali Berisha had no complaints. Perhaps this was also because the DP and Berisha won the elections and returned to office thanks to the schism in the ranks of the Albanian socialists. But, no matter how the 2005 general elections were, in the final account, they enabled a rotation of the power from the Left wing Government to the Opposition. Now Mr. Berisha faces the test of organizing and administering a free and fair electoral process that meets the standards of a NATO member country, and also a process that could see his return to the Opposition or continuation with a second term in office.
The Socialist Party faces the second test, the biggest Opposition party, together with its leader Edi Rama. A free and fair round of elections is not only dependent on the Ruling Majority and its government, on their conduct, but also on the Opposition’s performance. Edi Rama Tirana’s successful but controversial Mayor for three consecutive terms will find himself before a very difficult test on 28 June this year. Elected to the head of the socialists, still considered by a part of them, if not an anarchist, at least an outsider, Edi Rama will find himself faced with a major test – Will he be able to bring the Left wing back into office or not? If Mr. Rama, as Chairperson of the SP fails in his attempt to bring the Left back into power, will he resign from the head of the SP? This is a test that has to happen in Albanian democracy and the occasion is on 28 June.
The upcoming parliamentary elections will also test the smaller Albanian parties. A handful of smaller parties which fail to get into parliament under their own steam will find it even more difficult this time because of the implementation of the new regional proportional electoral system, which does not permit “donations” from the bigger parties, as has happened over the past twenty years. If the leaders of the smaller parties wish to survive, they must merge in coalitions with the two bigger parties.
The other test that will have to be faced in the upcoming elections is for the Albanian Left, in particular for the SMI, a faction of the former PM Ilir Meta in the SP. Even though there is a growing chorus of voices within the left wing for a unification of the socialists, that is of Ilir Meta and Edi Rama, the two leaders of the SMI and SP respectively, at this moment in time there is very little chance that the Left will go into these elections together.
A loss by Ilir Meta in the upcoming elections would cut back to a maximum any ambitions or chances he may have of taking over the leadership of the three Left wing parties.
If none of the three parties, DP, SP or SMI manage to win enough seats to create a government, the equation of Albanian politics will become most interesting. Would, for example the SMI accept to create a government with the DP of Mr. Berisha? Albanian parliamentary elections are most important for Albanian society. But, unfortunately, the importance of elections in Albania is still linked with the fate of individuals. A top Western diplomat commented that elections will be interesting in Albania, but let’s hope, not THAT interesting!
