TIRANA, March 3 – Due to the increasing trend of immigration, about 1.112 million inhabitants, or 38.8 percent of the total Albanian population, live abroad. The demographic decline in Albania has been going on for three decades, due to massive immigration and a 65 percent decline in the fertility rate since the fall of the communist regime in 1990. However, officials are not concerned about immigration as they claim that they are trying to establish an economic zone in the region which will enable the movement of capital goods and people. Experts on the other hand, criticize the deficiencies in the job markets which the youth is faced with and the departure of professionals from the country.
According to the recent UN Population Prospects 2019 report, the Albanian population is expected to decrease to only 512 thousand by 2100 in the worst-case scenario, equivalent to 18 percent of the current population and to no more than 1.9 million inhabitants in the best-case scenario.
However, some experts claimed that the UN forecast is limited in accuracy and that, there is no room for concern in the long run. Instat’s prospects for the Albanian population in 2061 foresee a 73 percent increase in the population. “Predictions are made taking into account past birth rates, past mortality rates and immigration trend. These predictions are based on the scenario that levels of these three phenomena remain the same. Therefore they come up with some scary, unrealistic figures in the long run, ” said Arjan Gjonçaj, professor of demography at London School of Economics in England, for VOA.
During the 1970s-’80s, Albania accounted for the highest population growth in Europe, by 2 percent on an annual basis, but since then,\ figures have changed for the worse; The current growth is at -0.35 percent. According to data, Albania’s population has decreased by 15 percent since 1989, when it had about 3,300,000 inhabitants. The factors that affected the population are births, deaths,and immigration. In the case of Albania imigration is the main factor of contraction, as experts claim that Albania ranks first in Europe for mass immigration. Director of the Center for Economic and Social Studies, Ilir Gedeshi says that their recent study noted the tendency of young people and qualified people to leave the country.
“Our study showed that highly qualified people with higher education are more prone to emigrate to other countries, whereas in 2007 those that wanted to emigrate consisted mostly of the unemployed, the poor, the unskilled and the uneducated. “
Experts believe that immigration will continue as long as the country’s economic and social development is unstable as shown by the number of Albanian asylum seekers in the European Union countries, which totaled about 178 thousand during the 2010 – 2018 period, according to Eurostat.
However, Prime Minister Edi Rama does not consider the demographic decline and emigration of Albanians as a high concern. “Albanians have left and will leave and they will come and go. According to Eurostat, 155,000 Albanians have returned during the last four years,” he said.
However, Arjan Gjonçaj stated that “population growth policies should focus primarily on improving women’s emancipation in Albania, on improving working conditions, on policies related to workplace and family equality.”
Additionally, the decline of the fertility rate is a concern for all countries in the EU and the Balkan region, as it is below the 2.1 replacement level. Precisely, Albania is below the EU average by 1.55 percent.
Another worrying phenomenon is related to the natural population growth or otherwise known as the birth to death ratio, which dropped by 89 percent compared to 1990 when the population grew by 64,000 people on an annual. Although Albania is marked by a positive natural growth rate, immigration is much more dominant and therefore population growth is negative.
The issue of population decline is a phenomenon that has also affected the countries of Central Europe and the Balkans as many leaders have embraced and stepped up efforts to increase birth rates and implement national employment policies. This year, Albania will hold the third census since the fall of communism and experts see it as an opportunity to study demographic issues and develop the necessary policies in this regard.
