With the beginning of a new year, the question arises as to what 2011’s legacy will be, and how 2012 will unfold. With this in mind, experts from around the country shared with Tirana Times their thoughts on the past year and hopes (and skepticism) for what’s to come.
For the majority of Albanians the year that we have left behind
will be remembered, above all, as the year of lost chances to take perhaps the decisive step toward EU integration. It will also be remembered for the egotistical irresponsibility of our political class, which brought disorder throughout the country’s life, the long conflict of extreme politics, and above all, the dramatic and shocking events of January 21st. This year will be remembered for the disappointing electoral race for Tirana’s municipality, which showed that إven 20 years after the call of communismطe once again find it impossible to hold honest elections. But what I think is our worst inheritance is the fact that the year symbolizes a total loss of trust in our justice system, and consequently, the very foundations on which rule of law is established.
The only light standing out from this negative-enough year, is without a doubt the liberalization of visas, which fulfilled the old dreams of Albanians to travel freely in Europe.
Now, what will 2012 bring? It’s very difficult to predict, especially when the policies are quite controversial. On the one hand, the situation seems calmer and there appears to be a normalization of communication between the two sides. But on the other hand, nothing important has changed in the mentality that brought the crisisسomething that will make it yet more difficult to face the intense political competitions ahead of us this year. What’s more is that there does not appear to be any political will to carry out real reform to what constitutes the Achilles heel of the entire system and without which one cannot imagine a return of Albanian democracy to normality. This applies to the justice system and, of course, the unexpected that awaits us in the economy.
Piro Misha
Director
Institute of Dialogue and Communication
As a rule, Albania is an unpredictable place; which is why
attempts to forecast the upcoming year seem like an adventure of the mind. If 2011 was a lost year, 2012 hopes to be a normal year. In fact, we will live 2012 (not the end of the world), but in our mind it will be 2013. We will have a new president that is likely to be older than the current one. We will also have new parties, which will also be older than the ones we have.
Our iliberal democratic trend will be reinforced further. The government will continue its proceduralist approach, while the opposition will continue its moralist approach. “Client-ocracy” will prepare for 2013, making its money, slogans, prices, project declarations (without forgetting its alibis) and everything needed to emerge victorious from the future elections.
In the fall, Albania will be a candidate country of the European Union, something that will at least make us equal to our neighbors. After this the road is long; and we have time for long roads.
At the end of 2011, we were informed that the rates of economic growth were among the highest on the continent, second only to Germany. While, in fact, Germany itself said that it was third, after Estonia (8 percent) and Poland (4.2 percent). Hopefully this ranking will be resolved this year; because, in the end, one cannot be sustained merely with propaganda.
Remzi Lani
Executive Director
Albanian Media Institute
I hope very much that the positive trend of the last months
can be mantained and become sustainable in 2012. For that to happen, we need real reforms, not only window-dressing efforts.
The ruling coalition and the government will have to respond positively to the offers made by the opposition regarding some major reform projects, like the parliamentary reform and the electorial reform, preparing the road of the country towards its Europeanization. The establishment of commissions is a first important step, but,concrete results are needed – and they are needed soon.
The rather gloomy economic perspectives of 2012 require more than ever a political leadeship in which each side has its responsibilities and its share. In my opinion, the opposition has done a significant step to move into the right direction; but, as the proverb says, ũt needs two to dance tango”.
There has to be consensus in politics on the rules of the game and the long term objectives of development – otherwise this country and its citizens will remain marginalized and left Ŭost in transition”. With the economic challenges in front and with the parliamentary elections coming up in 2013, the fundament for further progress has to be laid already in the first part of 2012.
Michael Weichert
Director
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Albania
The year that we have left behind was a year of controversies,
mostly a negative year. Many bad things happened, such a January 21st when freedom of protest was severely hampered with the killing of four Albanian citizens. October 12th when our candidate status for the EU was once again denied was another expected yet sad day. The local elections results dragged on painfully. Few good things happened as well. The political crisis ended and the opposition took its place in the Parliament starting life in politics as usual. Chances are that 2012 will be a better year, even though the upcoming challenges are huge. Albania shall celebrate its 100th year of existence as an independent state. Albanians shall be glued to TV screens; the mandates of many institutions’ leaders including the President are due to be renewed. The Greek crisis will keep urging the return of the immigrants in droves. And once again we will seat at the EU exam desk, this time hoping to get a passing grade. Politicians have one more opportunity to show responsibility. Hopefully they will do just that.
Alba Cela
Deputy Director, House of Europe
After a two-year political stalemate, Albania entered 2012
politically more relaxed, economically weaker, and numerically smaller (per the census results).
Albania waits to achieve candidate country status from the EU in the fall of this year, but in order for this to happen, it must fulfil the 12 criteria. At the moment, only one of them stands completed (the election of an ombudsman).
The most favorable period for Albania to do its homework assigned by Brussels is the first six months of this year. After this, come the presidential elections. Debates over his election have begun, and the truce between the parties may be ruined in Julyحaking it difficult for the Parliamentary consensus needed for the reforms to be reached.
After that, there will be the election of the new Attorney General, the election of the vice president of the High Council of JusticeŠand we will move on to the electoral year.
In the meantime, the new parties have been informed that the key topic will be electoral reformsشo which the two main parties have agreed, though the other 60 parties have not.
In 2012, we are not expecting good economic news from neighboring countries where we have the largest numbers of emigrants (Greece, Italy) and as a result we will have lower remittances. Albania has faced some powerful waves from the global financial crisis, but it cannot endure for long the granite stone of the Adriatic coast. Consequently, the economic deterioration will help 2012 (20 years after the change of systems) to understand that first and foremost is the economy.
Lutfi Dervishi
Director, Transparency International Albania
