By Janusz Bugajski
In its determination to re-establish Russia’s great power status, the Kremlin oligarchy has launched a series of policy thrusts against Western interests. According to state propaganda, the West is intent on weakening Russia and capturing its neighbors under the cover of democracy building. The West has thereby become Russia’s principal adversary.
Moscow has launched several offensives to undercut Alliance unity and effectiveness. In the military sphere it has unilaterally placed a moratorium on compliance with the CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) treaty, asserting that there should be no ceilings on Russian deployments. At the same time, the Kremlin has condemned Washington’s planned anti-missile defense system, claiming that it is intended to neutralize Russia’s nuclear capabilities and dominate Europe.
Russian leaders allege that the defensive network to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic, together with U.S. military basing in Bulgaria and Romania, constitutes a direct threat to Russia. To counter such American “encirclement,” Russia develops alliances with regional powers that can challenge U.S. interests, including China and Iran.
Other diplomatic moves are intended to undermine Western leadership and unity. In denying Kosova’s statehood by vetoing the Western plan for independence in the UN Security Council, the Kremlin asserts that Russia is the primary defender of multilateralism and international legality. Kosova now forms part of a broader strategic agenda enabling Russia to elevate its international position by claiming to counterbalance alleged U.S. hegemony.
Russia has pumped its substantial oil and gas revenues into prestige military projects designed to demonstrate its muscular revival. These include deploying new RS-24 long-range ballistic missiles, threatening to target countries that host U.S. troops, planning to locate nuclear weapons in Belarus and Kaliningrad, restoring its long-range strategic air squadron to challenge NATO preponderance in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and raising the importance of the Collective Security Organization (CSO) as a counter-balance to NATO.
On the economic front, Russia continues to manipulate energy as a strategic weapon, whether by using subsidization to promote political dependence or purchasing energy infrastructure in neighboring countries to increase political influence. Even Germany has been targeted by the Kremlin. The recent cutback of scheduled oil deliveries from Russia is intended to extract higher prices from Berlin and enable Lukoil, the major supplier, to acquire stakes in German refineries
Russia monopolizes gas and oil supplies from Central Asia to European customers, thus keeping Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in a colonial stranglehold by paying below market prices for their resources. It also pursues control over the Arctic shelf claiming the region’s vast energy resources as Russian property. This policy will bring Moscow into collision with the U.S., Norway, Denmark, and Canada.
In the Balkan arena, Moscow wants a string of weak or neutral states through which it can exert influence and counter the American and NATO presence – including Moldova, Serbia, Kosova, Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Montenegro. A major role in the Balkan economies will benefit Moscow in three ways: financial profit, political influence, and strategic advantage by either stifling each country’s qualifications for NATO and the EU or weakening their position in both organizations.
Each of the “front-line” state in Russia’s European strategy face serious challenges to their independence and national interests. If Moscow cannot use countries such as Bulgaria or Hungary as proxies within both NATO and the EU then it will seek to neutralize and marginalize them so they do not join Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states in an “anti-Russian bloc.”
However, as members of both the Alliance and the Union, the Central European now possess stronger options than during the Cold War when they were susceptible to Russian control. In order to uphold their interests they must form strong alliances with governments who understand and resist Russia’s strategy. They must closely monitor Russian investment in their economies and prevent political interference. And they must maintain a strong relationship with the U.S. in order to protect their security.
