The next 12 months could reshape Albania’s political and economical scenes and affect the country’s domestic and international policies for years to come.
Tirana Times
Tirana, May 31 – The next twelve months will be crucially important for Albania. Domestic policies will be largely influenced by several political factors that will take full shape in the near-term future. Some of these factors have the potential to affect foreign policies too. In addition, economic factors will perhaps be equally important to political ones in shaping such policies.
The presidential election
Parliament must elect a new president in early June. A failure to come up with a candidate that has the support of the opposition as well as the governing parties – a missing consensual head of state נcan have serious consequences on domestic policies, primarily by keeping alive the spirit of conflict and disagreement between the two major political parties.
Not getting a consensual president will also have consequences for Albania’s relations with the European Union. In autumn, Albania hopes to get the official candidate status for EU membership, which will elevate the country to the level of Balkan neighbors like Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia – which are all officially EU candidate countries.
In addition to all this, general electoral reform is also strongly tied to how the president will be elected.
Possible scenarios
There are three possible scenarios in the election of the next Albanian president.
Option A: The president is elected by consensus between the government and opposition. This scenario would increase Albania’s chances of becoming an official EU candidate for membership in September. In addition, internal political tension would also ease and allow political parties to work on the electoral reforms for the next general elections נcoming up with a better system and improving the functioning of the Central Electoral Commission. Electoral reform necessitates an agreement among the parties and perhaps selecting a different type of electoral system, something that is important to the Socialist Movement for Integration, the third party – as well as other small parties נin particular, but is also desired by the main opposition Socialist Party.
Option B: The president is elected by the governing majority alone – the Democratic Party and SMI – and is someone with a low political profile or even an apolitical person.
Option C: The president is elected only by the Democratic Party with the help of rebel members of parliament from the SP or even SMI, producing a head of state that lacks legitimacy. (This how the current president was elected, though beyond the initial election, President Bamir Topi tried to keep a balance between the opposition and the government, and was accused by the current prime minister of trying to stage a coup in cooperation with the opposition.)
Option D: Early elections are called as a collision between the major parties is unable to select a president. Such scenario cannot be excluded, as both major parties might be interested in it.
The future of the governing coalition
A very important factor for Albania’s political stability is the future of the current governing coalition between the DP and SMI. The rapprochement on the left could bring into question the governing parliamentary majority and early elections are one possible outcome that can’t be excluded. (Please see our extended analysis on this topic on page 8 for more.)
EU status decision
Albania’s success or failure in becoming an EU candidate in autumn will also play a role.
Brussels’ decision on whether to grant official candidate status to Albania will largely depend on the next political developments outlined above. An absence of political consensus and conflict over the election of the next president would only make it easier for the EU to reject Albania’s application for the third time. This will have negative effects domestically and will weaken Albania’s position in the region.
As such, NATO member Albania would fail again to take the next important step, remaining behind in the region with Bosnia and Herzegovina, which isn’t even a unitary state, and the new country of Kosovo, which still faces limited sovereignty.
Albania’s relationship with Europe goes beyond the political scope, a failure to get candidate status would also discourage potential investors and perpetuate negative perceptions about the country’s stability and security.
New parties could reshape political scene
Looking at long-term political factors that could also have a short-term impact on the next general elections, there is the establishment of two new parties. The latest addition is the New Democratic Spirit Party which joins the Black and Red Alliance in offering new political contenders. NDS already has a confirmed member of parliament with former minister of defense and former deputy prime minister Gazmend Oketa among its ranks.
Almost a year before the regularly scheduled parliamentary elections of summer 2013, two parties with serious potential are entering the Albanian political scene.
The BRA is led by the former deputy head of the High Council of Justice, Kreshnik Spahiu, and the NDS will almost certainly be headed by the current President of the Republic, Bamir Topi, once he leaves the constitutionally-mandated nonpolitical post he currently holds as head of state.
The registration of a new political party in Albania is usually not news in itself. Since the collapse of communism two decades ago, tens of parties have been created, while about a dozen or so have been able to gain representation in parliament and local governments.
However, despite the existence of a growing number of registered parties in comparison to the declining population, Albania’s political scene over the past twenty years has been dominated almost entirely by two parties – the Democrats and the Socialists.
These two parties have taken turns at governing the country and been able to consolidate power in a political system that is controlled almost exclusively by them. And in the absence of a strong civil society, they have absolutely dominated the Albanian political agenda – at least until the 2009 general elections.
The entry into the political scene of the Red and Black Alliance and the New Democratic Spirit is different – because these two forces likely won’t simply add to the inflated number of registered political parties.
They have the potential to affect and perhaps end the bipolar political system that has dominated Albania since the fall of communism.
Partnership versus inferiority in foreign relations
Ending that 20-year domination may have important implications primarily for domestic politics, but to a certain extent it will affect foreign policy as well.
That’s the case particularly with the Red and Black Alliance, which wants Albanian national unity. Its activists have set up branches and have been organizing activities in Macedonia, Kosovo and Montenegro. However, despite the overt nationalist tone, the alliance says Albanian national unity should happen as part of the European Union. However, the alliance’s nationalistic rhetoric is particularly evident when it comes to relations with neighboring countries, particularly Greece and Serbia.
But at the end of the day, the alliance’s foreign policy proposals go no further than establishing a relationship of partnership instead one of inferiority, according to local observers נor one of humiliation for Albania, according to the alliance.
Refreshing the political class
Also, some of alliance statements on the functioning of the political system, political parties and elections have hit the right tone with an increasingly larger public in Albania.
One of the RBA’s goals is to implement western standards in the organization and functioning of the party.
“If Americans would use Albanian standards,” RBA leader Spahiu told the Voice of America recently, “the Americans would not have had President Obama, or George W. Bush or even Bill Clinton – but Bush Senior.” He was referring to a fundamental problem in Albania: The political elite today is exactly that of two decades ago.
Economic factors to play major role
Of course, just as important as the political factors, there are strong economic current events that will impact Albania’s domestic and foreign policies.
It is now clear the impact of the wider economic crisis on Albania will continue to grow beyond its effects up to this moment. And the Greek crisis in particular will affect Albania and can potentially have large negative effects on this country.
These include the ongoing decline in remittances and the fact that a number of Greek or Greek-Albanian companies operating near the southern border are shutting down at an alarming rate, increasing rate of unemployment in Albania
Furthermore, the return of Albanian immigrants in Greece, which number about 700,000, could potentially also increase the level of unemployment in Albania.
The home country is also unprepared to incorporate these returning Albanians into its basic services such as school and healthcare.
In addition, Albania’s banking system has a large Greek presence, with Greek-owned banks running 30 percent of the banking sector in Albania. These are Albanian subsidiaries, ruled under Albanian laws, but question remains on how these Greek-owned Albanian banks would fare should their parent companies collapse.
Relations with a Greece in crisis
If Greece is forced out of the Eurozone, the implications for Albanians in Greece, but Albania as well, will be entirely negative. It will probably affect the financial stability of Albania at a time when Albania is already feeling the effects of a wider European economic crisis.
To make matters worse, the crisis itself and the end product in Greec could also hurt Greek-Albanian bilateral relations. Even without the economic crisis, Greek-Albanian relations have been for years in a quiet cool-down – without any high-level visits in either country – particularly after the Albanian Constitutional Court scraped the continental shelve agreement between the two countries.
But the appearance of the extreme parties in Greece – including the fascists of Golden Dawn, can further deteriorate relations.
A weak Greece under the current circumstances is not in the best interest of Albania, especially since no one knows what government Greece will have after two weeks when they hold elections again – but one thing is certain – the lure of the extreme forces is increasing, and among other things, the extremists are clearly anti-Albanian in rhetoric.
Bilateral troubles with Greece can only further complicate Albania’s relations with the European Union.
Albania hopes to get EU candidate status in autumn, and this must be approved by all EU member countries, including Greece.
The economics of an electoral year
Last but not least, another economic factor driven by a politics is the fact that Albania has entered an electoral year. This year is extremely important for Albania and its internal and external policies. It will likely decide the future of the country’s political leadership and both large parties.
Working for political gain, the government has started many infrastructure projects, such as the highway tunnel between Tirana and Elbasan, but also other infrastructure projects which it will try to complete before the elections, consuming a lot of public funding out of the already empty coffers of Albanian finance.
