Serbia’s Radicalism Helps Kosova

By Janusz Bugajski
The fragility of the newly formed Serbian government and the rising power of the ultra-nationalist Radical Party underscore why Kosova needs to be permanently separated from an unstable Serbian state.
Although a last minute government coalition was stitched together by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and President Boris Tadic shortly before the election deadline, there is major uncertainty on how long this agreement will last. Even more importantly, the Radicals will be waiting on the wings seeking to capitalize on coalition conflicts and the imminent independence of Kosova.
If there are new elections, the Radicals look set to increase their share of the vote and even form the next administration. This will have serious implications for Kosova and for Serbia’s relations with the outside world.
Negotiations on a Western-oriented government have dragged on for over three months primarily because of disputes over the allocation of key security posts. The President was outraged by Kostunica’s demands that his party control the country’s defense, police, and security services.
The more moderate Tadic democrats are willing to cooperate with The Hague tribunal by delivering General Ratko Mladic to the tribunal and reforming the security sector in preparation for future NATO entry. As a result, Kostunica has accused Tadic of being a puppet of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).
Kostunica’s stubbornness on the ICTY and the immaturity of much of the Serbian elite has damaged Belgrade’s credibility as an international partner. With regard to Kosova, Serbian officialdom are committing at least three self-damaging errors.
First, by placing their hopes in a Russian veto at the UN Security Council, Belgrade is viewed as the capital of diplomatic cowardice. By heating up the Russian question Kostunica and company are viewed as willing to endanger European unity for their own historical myths.
Second, by failing to form a government for three months, no major Serbian politician seemed willing to assume power when key decisions are made over Kosova. Each leader is more concerned how they will look in history books instead of focusing on improving the lives of ordinary Serbian voters.
Third, the rise of the Radicals will place the final seal on international decisions over Kosova. A government that includes aggressive nationalists with claims to neighboring territories and whose leader is on trial in The Hague, will severely damage Serbia’s relations with the EU.
If the Radicals enter government, Serbia will slip even further behind its neighbors in terms of European integration, economic reform, and national security. Clearly, all the former Yugoslav republics and Kosova itself made the right decision by leaving a sinking ship in which the navigators themselves continue to punch holes in the hull. Tethered to Serbia, Kosova’s chances of economic progress and Europeanization would look bleak.
The prospect of an ultra-nationalist government compounds the concerns of international powers over Belgrade’s response to Kosova’s independence. The Radicals were at the forefront of organizing death squads, which targeted unarmed civilians in Bosnia and Croatia. Such exercises could be repeated for the alleged glory of Serbia.
There are indications that Radicals and veterans of previous ethnic massacres are beginning to regroup. Rallies have been held in Serbia by an openly anti-Albanian group, styling itself as the Guard of St. Tsar Lazar. For them any form of independence for Kosova will trigger the operations of Christian militia against the “Albanian Al-Qaeda.”
A Radical administration would certainly provide paramilitaries with greater scope for action, through enhanced state funding and logistical support. The revival of Serbian paramilitaries could provoke widespread ethnic violence in Kosova. Rather than returning Kosova to Serbia, it will lead to the evacuation or expulsion of the remaining Serb minority. With the internationals having pledged to stand firm against territorial partition, the dream of a multi-ethnic Kosova could contain one less minority in the newly independent state.