EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Level of Support is Declining
The most important finding of this survey is that 80.7 percent of Albanian favour Albania’s integration into the big European family of the EU, while 10.5 percent are against it. A significant percentage of respondents, 8.8 percent say that they don’t know, signalling indecision. This presents a dive from last year’s much more positive support numbers that stood at 93.4 percent and a more approximate figure of the results in 2009 (88.7 percent). Both numbers of people who are against entry to the EU and the number of people who have not made up their mind about this choice have gone up. Last year only 3.6 percent of respondents answered ‘No’ to this hypothetical referendum while this year a full 10.5 percent say so. The number of those who didn’t know what to say last year was a mere 2.9 percent while this year it has jumped to 8.8 percent.
Unlike previous years when there was an observable distinction of supporters and opponents in terms of education, this year the distinction is invalid. The people who would vote against European integration are roughly divided in equal numbers between those with a university degree and those who have finished only their secondary schools.
The importance attributed to the integration itself has taken a plunge from last year. Whereas last year a full 72.6 percent of the interviewed people deemed integration as very important, this year only 16.5 percent do so, with the majority of 63.3 percent saying that integration is important but not a key priority. Last year those who thought integration was important yet not a priority was only 23 percent. This jump in the numbers of those who have downgraded European integration from “priority” to just “important” is a very strong signal as well as the result of several things in action.
These include political instability, pessimism and confusion about the entry date, fatigue with the long timing of the process but most importantly an overall severe lack of local ownership and falling enthusiasm about integration as a driving source of reform and progress. This becomes even clearer once we factor in the analysis a stunning 20 percent of Albanians who do not attribute any significant importance to this process. Compared to 2010 when this category took only 2.2 percent we have a ten fold increase of people whom the integration process makes no difference whatsoever.
The Reasons for supporting Integration have Changed
With Albanians finally getting rid of the visa requirements, many believed that a strong impetus would be removed from people’s desire to join the European Union. AIIS asked citizens specifically why they supported integration now that the decades-long dream of free movement had been realized. The most frequent answer was the expectation that integration would strengthen democracy. More than 40 percent of Albanians cited the contribution to democracy as their main reason of support, and only 19 percent of them leaned on the side of economic benefits, mentioning rising standards of life as their driving motive. This answer requires some explanation in that functioning strong democracy is a requirement for entrance. The fact that Albanians consider it an afterwards effect can be considered a reflection upon the trials of the EU officials to temper the crisis and ask accountability and consensus from the Albanian political class.
However the difference between this political motive and the normally expected economic one is larger than last year when only 17.1 percent believed it would consolidate democracy and 29.3 supported integration for hope of better living standards. There is a flip between political reasons and economic ones, with political stability taking the place of economic prosperity as a priority for Albanian citizens.
Similarly there is a considerable segment of people, more than 15 percent, that expect integration to bring more ‘rule of law’ and even more justice to Albania, once again forgoing the fact that rule of law and a functioning judicial system are also firm requirements for accession rather than expected outcomes post EU entry.
EU Sceptics are Silent over their Reasons
Almost half of the Albanians that declare to be opposite of Albania’s accession to the EU cite no reason for such an approach, signalling perplexity or confusion. There is a sharp decrease in those that mention rising prices from last year, from 44 percent to 26 percent. Also the number of those who are concerned about the loss or deformation of national identity within this group is halved compared to last year. In 2010 more than 20 percent of the respondent had this in mind when saying ‘No’ to integration, while this year only 10.5 percent seem to do so. A similar number of respondents oppose integration based on the worry that local business might incur significant and deterring losses.
The Confusing Knowledge Gap Persists
Albanians are confused about the current state of Albania vis a vis the European Union. The majority of the interviewed people, a considerable 47 percent, believe that Albania has already acquired the candidate status. Another 10 percent actually think that Albania is a current member. This is perplexing given that during the last months the media has been flooded by reports and interviews that explain why Albania is not a candidate country and will possibly continue to be refused the candidate status due to the lack of political consensus and reforms. Only 40 percent of the people have the correct information, with another 3 percent lacking any knowledge whatsoever.
It is despairing to note that young people do not stand out as having better information, while common sense would indicate so. About 30 percent of those who gave the wrong answers fall in the age group of 18-24 years old. Out of those that correctly defined the status of Albania vis a vis the European Union only 9 percent were in the same age group (18-24 years old).
The results show the persistence of lack of adequate information and media coverage regarding the process itself which is discouraging given the considerable lapse of time since Albania has embarked on the integration project as well as several efforts to disseminate information.
Readiness and the Dynamics of Pessimism
Albanians are perplexed about their country’s readiness and fulfilment of European standards and more pessimistic about the timing of the accession to the European Union than before. Compared to last year as far as Albanians evaluation of the country’s progress the figures remain almost constant and with slight alterations. 42 percent of the respondents believe that somewhat of a progress has been achieved, while 23 percent believe that little has been done. 13.3 percent see no progress at all compared to 11 percent of last year. 50.3 percent believe that Albania is ready to join while the rest is divided between those that don’t think the country is ready yet (28.7 %) and those who simply don’t know (21 %). It is rather perplexing that half of the respondents say that the country is in the condition to join the EU. One way to interpret this figure is to assume that it derives as a function of a strong desire of integration that distorts their real evaluation of the country readiness. Another potential explanation can be found in the confusion created by media coverage, which lacks both quality and neutrality, about the requirements, recommendations and work done so far to meet them.
Given a constant progress being perceived, the change in expectations about EU accession date presents a curios dilemma. An impressive 34 percent of Albanians believe that Albania shall not make it into the EU until 2020. This is followed by a large group of even more pessimistic respondents who think that accession shall happen after 2020. 9 percent of the respondents question the possibility of accession, hinting that according to them Albania will never become an EU member. The optimists or maybe the ones, who have unrealistic expectations, are a minority. 18 percent think the country shall join the European family in 2014.
Albanians according to these figures have tuned their expectations, overcoming what the past reports of similar AIIS surveys deemed as ‘outlandish’ expectations. Falling optimism, especially when it is coupled with falling support, however is a signal of weaker acceptance of necessary reforms hence should be treated with caution and should not be welcomed as a mere realistic awakening.
Albanians are slightly more responsible than in the past when considering the integration process as the consequence of their country’s fulfilment of necessary standards. Last year, 42 percent of those interviewed agreed that the EU should open the doors to Albania before it was ready. This year the change in these figures is drastic. 9.2 percent of Albanians think the EU should admit Albania even before it fulfils the requirements outlined for accession. An impressive decline like this should be definitely accounted for and factors such as the political crisis and the integration leverage to pull political actors together in a potential compromise should be definitely weighted in.
More than half of the respondents, 51 percent answered that the EU should not open its doors for Albania before the country fulfils necessary conditions.
Factors and institutions at work: politics at the limelight
The conclusion of the electoral season despite its shortcomings and complex developments seems to have alleviated Albanians worries about free and fair elections and their impact on the EU integration process. Only 37 percent, compared to a full 54 percent in 2010, of Albanians believe that free and fair elections are the main factor that influences the ongoing of the integration process. Citizens have shifted their focus somewhere else as far as factors influencing the integration process are concerned.
A majority of Albanians this year place politics and role of law at the top of the important factors list. This is also reflected in Albanians assessment of the importance of the institutions vis a vis the EU integration. 34 percent of citizens believe that political parties are the most important institutions that shape the Albanian integration agenda followed by the government chosen by another 30 percent. Despite media focus on the parliamentary boycott and the stalling of the approval of integration related legislation, only 12 percent of Albanians deem the parliament as a key institution for integration. This percentage offers a clue of Albanians general perceptions of power sharing in the political scene. Only 10 percent of the respondents see the society in itself as the main actor responsible for integration.
Consistent evaluation for the importance of EU and US Partnerships
The European Union is still Albanians’ primary desired partner and the relation between Albanian government and the European Union just as last year enjoys the support of 82 percent of the respondents, unlike any other international body, organization or single foreign country. The other very important partners present no surprises: NATO with 79%, the UN with 77 percent and the United States of America with 81 percent (almost reaching the EU and experiencing a significant increase from the 77 percent mentioned last year).
As far as neighbourly relation and the importance attributed to them the figures present predictable patterns with few surprises. Italy retains its role as favourite Western partner while problematic view of Serbia and Greece prevails. 69 percent of Albania’s believe relations with Italy are of foremost importance. Only a fifth of Albanians think the government should have a strong relation with Greece, down from 58 percent in 2010. A stunning 36 percent of Albanians don’t think the relations between Albania and Serbia matter at all, followed by another 11 percent who think they matter only a little. Asked for the first time this year, a large part of Albanians consider Turkey to be important partner and ally of their country. Albanians seem to have come easily to accept Kosovo’s ongoing maturity as a state: compared to last year 75 percent that deemed relations with Kosovo to be paramount this year only 62 percent continue to do so.
Free movement: Centrality and misperceptions
The lifting of visa requirements has definitely changed the life of ordinary Albanians and has offered numerous opportunities to the citizens to accomplish long desired trips to visit loved ones abroad. However, despite lifting of the visa as obstacles to travel, another significant obstacle seems to retain its weight: the economic situation. 52 percent of Albanians travelled during the last six months to an EU member state, most of them to meet their relatives as well as for tourism. 43 percent did not travel, and the reason is quite the expected one, they could simply not afford it. 50 percent of the Albanians that did not travel abroad cited economic reasons as their obstacle. A small 2.6 percent reported that they were rejected entrance at the border points. Last year when Albanians had still to obtain visas 40 percent of them again mentioned economic reasons for not travelling. The financial capacity of Albanians to afford abroad trips remains very limited, a sign of the country’s lingering economic issues.
Out of the countries of the EU, the major host of the temporary visits was Italy with leading 26.7 percent of those that had travelled followed by Germany 17 percent and Greece 16 percent.
The most interesting results are those affiliated with Albanians assessment of the importance of free movement. First and foremost, 22 percent cite the well known reason of being able to visit family, an expected motive for a society where most families have loved ones residing abroad. Perhaps one of the most interesting results is that 12.4 percent of Albanians feel good when travelling freely, they mention that they feel equal to other European citizens, a dignified state of mind that has been lacking for a very long time period where Albanians felt not only isolated but often humiliated when presented with suspicion and mistrust by the foreign authorities at the check points. This dimension of dignity and fraternity with fellow Europeans is one of the key positive effects of the liberalization of visas worth mentioning.
Misperceptions, though at small levels persist in the Albanian public opinion about the lifting of visa requirements. 5 percent of the people who had travelled answered that their reason was to seek work. 6 percent of Albanians still believe that now there is a chance to be employed in EU countries and another 6 percent believe that they can take up residence abroad, both opportunities that shall be available only after full accession. Again one large segment, 16 percent seems to be unclear about the link between free movement and education opportunities. Students still need to obtain long time student visas (covering the full academic year) in order to be able to study in an EU member country.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Revive the enthusiasm, promote local ownership
“The European Union has lost its magic but not its importance”, the conclusion drawn last year by the Balkan monitor that gauges the perceptions of Balkan citizens seems to have overarching value this year as well. While still judging that integration is the key path for better life and a better future Albanians seem to have lost some of that unique enthusiasm that characterized them for years. Despite accepting this still marginal loss as a normal development over time, Albania and the EU can not afford to lose the enthusiasm and popular support of the citizens related to the EU integration process. Despite the fact that the level of support is quite high still, there is an appearance of scepticism and more specifically there are more people that don’t consider the Europeanization project as a priority. If this trend is to continue the level of indifference might easily lead to opposition for necessary reforms and estrangement of the society at the grassroots level with the EU itself. There is a specific role here for the EU delegation in Albania, European donors and civil society to work with Albanian education sector and media to revive the interest especially the enthusiasm of young people about the EU and about the benefits associated with the integration process itself. EU needs to be seen as more than a tool for tempering the political crisis. AIIS has argued over and over again throughout these surveys that serious intervention is needed to encourage initiatives that promote the local ownership of the integration process, through raising transparency and involvement of society groups in the integration activities.
Invest in quality of media reporting
The donor agencies including the European Commission should devote focus to projects and initiatives that aim at qualitative media reporting as well as training programs that improve journalists capacities to report and analyze EU related issues and relevant concepts. Both media and civil society organizations should be engaged in this process. Efforts to boost experience sharing visits and joint projects between Albanian and European media outlets should be promoted.
Political accountability
The results of this survey are clear ringing bells for those who wish to hear. The Albanian citizens hold the political class and their power mongering as the primary responsible factor for the considerable difficulties Albania is currently facing in its integration path. Political accountability and vision are need or otherwise, as stated in an economist interview by AIIS executive director Albert Rakipi, “we will continue to live under the tyranny of the status quo that we have seen in the past two years.” This status quo offers no hope for Albanian citizens and should be overcome as soon as possible in order to realize the dream that lingers on for many years, that of joining the large European Union family.
