By HAMDI FIRAT BàœYàœK*
After five months of political turmoil, repeated acts terror and the loss of hundreds of lives following the June 7 elections, Turks took to the polls to vote on their country’s future, ultimately voicing their preference for ‘stability’ under single party rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
According to preliminary results released by the Supreme Election Board (YSK), the AKP has achieved the ability to extend its 13 years of single party rule after an earlier defeat in the June 7 elections stripped it of its parliamentary majority and forced it into coalition negotiations which failed to bear fruit.
The AKP’s success was a big surprise, even for the AKP, because nearly all analyses and polls predicted that the elections would not result in any party achieving a majority large enough to form a single party government. Even the pro-AKP research institution, A&G, forecast that the AKP would acquire a maximum 47% of the vote. Nonetheless, the AKP surpassed all expectations.
– Turkey’s new political scene
The Turkish Parliament will maintain its four-party structure, however, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) have lost a significant number of seats compared to the outcome of the June 7 elections.
According to the YSK figures, the AKP received 49.4% of the total vote, followed by the main opposition social-democrat Republican People’s Party (CHP) with 25.3%. The MHP and HDP have received 11.9% and 10.7% of the vote, respectively.
According the results, the distribution of the overall 550 seats in the parliament is as follows: AKP 317, CHP 134, MHP 40 and HDP 59. In June 7 elections, the AKP remained the most represented party in the parliament with 258 seats. The CHP came second with 132 seats while the MHP and HDP won 80 seats each.
The HDP passed the 10% threshold by a slight margin. While it was reported that uncounted votes might push the HDP under the threshold, it appears that this was avoided thanks to votes from abroad. As political analysts predicted, the HDP attained representation in the parliament, albeit by only a few hundred thousand votes.
Additionally, the MHP saw the sharpest decline in its share of the vote among all parties: decreasing from 17% (80 seats) in the June 7 elections to 11.9% (40 seats) on Sunday. For sure this is an obvious consequence of the MHP’s policies of saying “NO” during the coalition negotiations. For the first time, the MHP even lost its main stronghold, the traditionalist Central Anatolian city of Osmaniye that is the hometown and electoral district of the party’s leader Devlet Bahà§eli, to the AKP.
It seems that opposition parties’ votes flowed to the AKP and thus helped it to achieve Sunday’s historic success. According to the figures, the AKP was able to win a good chunk of both the Kurdish vote in Turkey’s eastern provinces that previously went to the HDP and the nationalist vote in Turkey’s coastal regions and central Anatolia, where the MHP constituency is strongest.
The CHP is the only opposition party to have increased its share of the vote. However, this 1% increase is of no significant consequence, and the party’s leader, Kemal Kılıà§daroÄŸlu, declared that the AKP’s attainment of single party rule means that the CHP does not see the election results as a success.
Voter turnout has been estimated at around 85%, which is far less than what was expected in addition to being unusual for Turkey in general.
– Turks chose ‘the stability’
Late on election night, Ahmet DavutoÄŸlu (aka ‘Hoca’), the leader of the AKP, delivered the so-called “balcony speech” – the AKP’s traditional victory speech held at the AKP’s headquarters in Ankara – to thousands of supporters, during which he promised stability and peace. Here he called for fraternity and solidarity among all Turkish citizens for the next four years.
In addition to referring to the people and cities of modern day Turkey, he also hailed post-Ottoman cities such as Sarajevo, Prizren, Jerusalem, and many others; cities located in Turkic republics including Baku, Astana, and Bishkek; as well as people all around the world whose hearts beat in Turkey. As was expected, his speech was dominated by quotes from and accolades of the Ottoman and the Seljuk Empires.
In spite of obvious violations of freedom of press, lack of rule of law, serious corruption allegations, deterioration in democratic practices, economic alarm bells and terror in the East, Turkish citizens voted for a single party government under the AKP, keeping in mind the unpleasant coalition experiences of the 1990s and the overall desire for stability.
It now seems clear that Turks have prioritized security and economic stability over rule of law and democratic values after the five-month-long political stalemate and outbursts of terror that characterized the period after the June 7 election. As is known, just weeks before the election on October 10, an attack claimed by ISIS took 102 lives in Ankara.
President ErdoÄŸan, who is the former prime minister and founder of the AKP, welcomed the election results and stated that the formation of a new constitution should take first place on the new government’s priority list. As is known, ErdoÄŸan strongly defends single party rule, having asked the Turkish people before the elections to vote for a party which could rule the country under a single party government.
It is no secret that ErdoÄŸan desires a presidential system and now the AKP is in a better position to implement such a change under a single party government. However, the AKP will still have to deal with other parties when it comes to creating a new constitution because 376 votes are needed to unilaterally ratify such a change or 330 votes would be needed to send the bill to a referendum; the AKP has only 317 seats.
– Challenges for the new government at home and abroad
With the elections, the AKP received permission from the people to rule the county for next four years, but nothing will be easy for PM DavutoÄŸlu. At home, renewed acts of terror perpetrated by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the internal fight with the clandestine Gà¼len Movement (or ‘parallel state’), and recent economic stagnation after years of record growth will feature heavily on the AKP’s agenda.
Abroad, it is obvious that the war in Syria and the refugee problem will take centre stage. Moreover, the AKP might try to improve its relations with the West and revive negotiations on its accession to the EU.
Additionally, the new AKP government will need to work to repair its image, which has been severely tarnished by mass protests, like those seen in Gezi Park, and state intervention in and physical seizure of critical media outlets. Otherwise, authoritarianism and undemocratic policies might become attached to popular perceptions of Turkey in the western world.
While the AKP did secure a clear victory in last Sunday’s elections, it now stands face to face with difficult tasks that are still awaiting a resolution, the realization of which would be the real victory beyond the election results. Those who voted for the AKP will expect the government to handle these issues, and the manner in which it does so will undeniably impact on the future of the country.
*Editor in Chief of the Journal of Turkish Weekly and Researcher at the Ankara-based think-tank the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK) and a Tirana Times contributor.
