The government and the opposition are entering into the elections in a tense climate of conflict. It would be a miracle to have an electoral process that is accepted by all and helps resolve the political conflict that has kept Albania deadlocked for two years.
TIRANA TIMES EDITORIAL STAFF
In two days, Albania will hold its local administrative elections. For a number of reasons, these elections have become a national political referendum in which Albanians are asked to choose between the center right government and the Socialist opposition.
The government and the opposition go into this electoral battle in a tense political climate and with deep mistrust that stems over disagreements about the parliamentary election results of 2009.
The opposition contested the ruling Democratic Party’s victory in these elections, which gave the Democrats a second mandate. The Socialists claim the elections were rigged, and have been asking for transparency ever since. The opposition boycotted parliament for a long time, and then returned to take its seats, but has had very limited and conditional relations with the government and the parliament, refusing to vote on any proposed legislation.
Socialist leader Edi Rama, who is seeking a fourth mandate this Sunday for Tirana mayor, has led the opposition’s non-stop protests.
The outcome of the parliamentary elections in 2009 was a narrow victory for Prime Minister Sali Berisha’s Democrats, and he has been forced to govern in his second term in a coalition with the Socialist Movement for Integration, known as LSI in Albanian. The LSI has roots in the Socialist Party, from where it split as a fraction. Led by former Socialist Prime Minister Ilir Meta, the LSI election campaign in 2009 was more radical than the Socialists’ against the center-right government of Dr. Berisha. Meta promised his supporters LSI would help them retire the historic leader of the Albanian right, who has dominated Albanian politics for over two decades, since the fall of communism.
The opposite happened, and it was Mr. Meta’s LSI that kept Dr. Berisha in power.
During the past two years, the opposition has never stopped asking for early elections. Good results for the opposition, a clear victory, would help it in its goal for early general elections.
On the other hand, the government is very interested in a clear defeat of its opponent. First, because a victory in the local elections means the government can confirm the results reached in the 2009 general election. So it would be both a moral and a political victory over the opposition’s claims of vote-rigging. Second, the government’s victory means a great investment in the future electoral confrontation at the national level for the next parliamentary elections. And in such circumstances, it is likely the prime minister will seek early elections to reconfirm support for his government.
Corruption and the killing of four protesters
The themes of corruption and the killing of four opposition protesters in January have been dominant for the opposition. They have been keys to the negative campaign the opposition has led in Tirana and everywhere else in Albania. It is clear the opposition has transformed the local elections into a political referendum on the government.
The Democrats’ candidate for Tirana, former Interior Minister Lulezim Basha, and former Deputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta, who was forced to resign after the publication of a video by the former economy minister that implicates Mr. Meta in corruption, have been at the center of attention for corruption accusations by the opposition. Mr. Meta has rejected the charges, but resigned to allow authorities to investigate him outside public office. The opposition has asked citizens not to vote for the government’s candidates, due to what it says is rampant corruption.
But most are most of attacks have focused on the Democrats’ candidate in Tirana, Mr. Basha. The opposition accuses him of being involved in killing four protesters on Jan. 21.
The Socialist Party failed to manage its protesters, and 200 to 300 people attacked with rocks and sticks police in front of the prime minister’s office. Meanwhile, media showed the protesters that were gunned down by the forces guarding the building were entirely peaceful and outside the perimeter of the government building.
The country was again on the verge of civil strife, but the opposition organized the next day an entirely peaceful rally to mourn the victims.
The prime minister made some outlandish claims, accusing the opposition leader, the President of the Republic, the chief prosecutor and the chief of the intelligence services of having colluded to attempt coup.
An opposition official says that if Tirana votes for Mr. Basha, it would legitimize the murders of Jan. 21, meaning that although this country is a NATO member, protesters would be killed again as if it were in the Middle East.
Former Minister Basha, on the other hand, has said the Guard of the Republic acted according to its rules and does not take orders from the minister, so he has no connection with the deaths of the protesters.
The worst case scenario: Tyranny of the status quo continues
Any clear cut victory either by the government or the opposition would be the most useful scenario and which Albanian desperately needs to take place as the country has been pinned down by political conflict.
During the past two years, political disputes and conflict almost froze local governance where it was controlled by the opposition.
In most cities where the opposition had the mayor, the municipals came under the control of the central ruling parties, following the alliance between the Democrats and LSI. So most municipal projects were delayed or canceled. Many municipalities were unable to approve annual budgets. There were conflicts within the municipal governments and between the local governments and the central government. It made local governance very difficult.
A victory by one side in the local elections Sunday could finally free the deadlock and allow local governments to function.
If a clear victory by one party is not achieved, it will mean that we will continue to live under the Tyranny of the Status Quo that we have seen it the past two years, which is caused by conflict and disagreement, and not in fact by the triangle proposed by Milton and Rose Friedman in their book.
Battle for Tirana or Battle of Stalingrad?
So what can be called a clear victory in the local elections? Four years ago, the opposition won in the capital and in almost all major cities, with the exception of Shkodra. Surprisingly, Prime Minister Berisha showed up with his famous speech of “Blue Albania” showing off a map of small towns and villages (which have been pretty much abandoned by the population.)
A clear victory would be seen on the side that takes Korca, Elbasan, Durres, and of course Tirana. Other cities are almost set for geographic split. Socialists get the South, Democrats the North.
However, the definitive victory will be set in what happens in Tirana. The battle for Tirana eclipses everything else and will be decisive in its political implications.
And the battle for Tirana will be one that is as hard fought as the famous WWII Battle of Stalingrad. That’s because its results have a lot of political implications for the political future not just of the candidates but the entire country.
The Democratic Party will fight for life and death to get back into Tirana City Hall, which has been ruled by the Socialists for almost a decade.
A Democratic Party victory in Tirana and perhaps in some of the other large cities that are now controlled by the Socialists would offer a confirmation of sorts for the result of the 2009 parliamentary elections and might virtually shut down the debate for the deformation of these results.
Also, a return of the Democrats in charge of Tirana City Hall would offer a good investment for the next parliamentary elections. Such a scenario could encourage the Democratic Party of Sali Berisha to go to parliamentary elections before the regularly scheduled time in 2013. A win by Basha in the local elections, would seal his fast rise within the Democratic Party. He has already held the foreign, economy and interior minister positions, and a win in Tirana would give more fuel to those who see Basha at the top of DP once Berisha retires. (Although Berisha, now in his 60s, says, perhaps jokingly, perhaps not, that he won’t retire for another 30 years, in the style of leader-for-life.)
But above all, as mentioned above, a victory of the former interior minister in Tirana would invalidate the accusations of the oppositions about his involvement in the killing of the four protesters on Jan. 21.
But the metaphor of Stalingrad is mostly associated with other capital contender in the race — Rama. He enters the race for the fourth time, but this is the first time that he is head of the SP. A loss in Tirana by Rama would have implications for his political future itself. In such a scenario, he might be unable to control his party. Critics of Mr. Rama in the SP would gain strength and try to seek his early departure following to two consecutive losses, in the parliamentary and local elections.
Campaigning in local elections with the national question in mind?
Few days before the local administrative elections are held, the PDIU party invited Albanians to attend a rally to express pride in the nation. The party, small and almost nonexistent in the past, was able to get a representative in parliament in the 2009 thanks to the new electoral law and support by the Democratic Party. It supporters are mainly members of the Cham community, Albanians expelled from their homes in northern Greece at the end of World War II. The party gained another member who separated from SP to joint because of his Cham identity. PDIU is in alliance with the Democrats DP in the government. PDIU is a minor party as most parties in Albania that are not the Democrat and the Socialists, so it is bit ridiculous that they are calling for a rally about national issues two days before the local elections in Tirana. There is no connection between the national issue and the local elections. The only reason for the rally is to galvanize the Cham community to vote for the governing coalition.
Talk about jobs is cheap. Adding a job is not
Five days before local elections, the current mayor of Tirana who is running for his fourth mandate publicly promised that in the next four years he will create 300,000 new jobs. What he calls “a pact with citizens” is package of promises that includes a giant tax cut, even the reduction of VAT and other things that can only be done through parliament and the central government – not the local government.
But let’s go back to the promise of the 300,000 jobs. If we keep in mind that 50 percent of the Albanian workforce today is in Greece and Italy, and more than 30 percent of the Albanian population of 4 million lives abroad, the promise of 300,000 jobs means Albania would become the first country in the world with zero unemployment. Experts note creating these jobs in a country like Albania would cost 1.2 billion euros with the country’s average salary of 280 euros a month. Talk about jobs is cheap. Creating a job is not.
The campaign has been spectacular in making promises. And in making promises the contest between the former government’s candidate Mr. Basha and the incumbent mayor, Mr. Rama, has been out of this world.
After the government’s candidate promises thousands of jobs, building a streetcar system for Tirana, removing all taxes, and performing all sorts of miracles, it is not a surprise that the mayor proposes a miracle of his own: creating 300,000 new jobs.
A final word about the international refs
The international community plays a vital role in Albania. But in the past six months its representatives have not been as united in their voices as they could have been. Certification of the elections is very important, and foreign observers will play a vital role. It is important that they offer a united, clear verdict for the elections that does not leave any room for interpretations.
Any stance that does not evaluate the process based on international standards is not beneficial and will be problematic. Any attempts to keep stability by sacrificing democratic standards would not be right – they would only create a negative stability.
One thing is for certain, the government and the opposition are entering into the elections in a tense climate of conflict. It will be a miracle to have an electoral process that is accepted by all and helps resolve the political conflict that has kept Albania deadlocked for two years.
At the end of the day, no matter how active the role of the international community is, the solution has to come from within Albania. But it is also important that, as seen immediately after the Jan. 21 events, the international representatives should speak with one voice, exert the same pressure everywhere so there is no perception among the Albanian parties that they can deal better with one actor than the other.
