Elections, Battle in Tirana but not for Tirana

By Jerina Zaloshnja
The electoral campaign has barely started and it is already clear that the real battle will occur in Tirana. The political in these electionsءs opposed to the administrativeسtands particularly in the characteristics of the Tirana battlefield. The two competing coalitions led by the governing Democratic Party and the opposition Socialist Party must win Tirana. And this necessity does not derive from mathematical calculations or competing visions of governance, but from the way the two blocs have squared off against each other.
Leaving aside for a moment the final results in the municipality of Tirana, both parties will interpret the results in all the other muncipalities and communes as a victory. Given that the electoral race is too close to call, this will not be too difficult for the masters of spin. In other words, in popular perceptions as well as among the political class, it will be results in Tirana that will determine winners from losers in these elections.
Firstly, for the united opposition a victory in Tirana would announce a bounce back from the traumatic loss of elections of the last parliamentary elections in July 2005.
Secondly, such a victory would legitimize the “Rama model” as the most (and perhaps only) successful model of local governance in Tirana to have emerged in Albania in the post communist period. We say the “only” successful model because municipalities governed by the DP have not been able to perform comparably even after the DP-led coalition gained control of the executive thus putting the lie to previous claims that these municipalities were unsuccessful because of an obstructionist central government.
Thirdly, a victory in Tirana would immunise the opposition from potential losses elsewhere. Since the leader of the main opposition party and standard bearer of the electoral campaign would proclaim victory for himself, this would also appear as the victory of the opposition as a whole.
Fourthly, a victory in Tirana would buttress the opposition’s strategy for early elections by the time the election of the president of the Republic comes along. If the opposition fails in Tirana, it will lack faith in its own potential to trigger early elections.
Last but not least, a victory in Tirana would strengthen the position of Mr. Rama within the Socialist Party. A socialist victory in Tirana is Rama’s personal victory. That means that the chances for a shake-up within the party triggered by Mr. Nano or his supporters would decrease considerably. In other words, the presidential seats would be up for grabs again.
On the other hand, a victory in Traina by the governing coalition would reconfirm popular support for the executve lead by Mr. Berisha especially since the Prime Minister has made it his personal business to discredit Mr. Rama the Mayor.
Secondly, the government needs to devalue the “Rama model” in order to justify its own reason for competing for the popular vote in local government elections. For as long as it has not been able to find its own successful model of local governance, the center right will always be constrained to attack noisily because it has nothing to defend.
Thirdly, the governing coalition has put forward as candidate for mayor its most successful minister. The fact that the governing coalition whose numbers in parliament have already been weakened during the last year and a half gambled its rising star at the potential cost of a seat in parliament leaves no doubt that the DP intends to defeat its enemies at their strongest point.
Fourthly, Mr. Rama’s loss in Tirana would inevitably weaken the opposition even if it performs well in the rest of the Republic. Top SP insiders ever-circling the seat of the leader would spring forward the moment they smelled blood. It is difficult to see how Mr. Rama could fend off the sharks then.
All these reasons show that the battle of Tirana will be the Stalingrad of this war. But, this battle will happen in Tirana but not for Tirana. The campaign message of Mr. Rama so far has focused on his achievements in the last six years as mayor. On the other hand, Mr. Olldashi has focused on ad hominem attacks on his opponents. Both candidates lack a positive message for their voters. What will Rama’s Tirana look four years from now? How about Olldashi’s vision?