Kosovo’s Independence: Now You See It, Now You Don’t

It would be a safe guess to assume that the word patience has lost a lot in popularity in Kosovo nowadays. “Be patient” pretty much sums up the message they have been receiving from years now from those powers of the West that support the Albanian’s drive for independence, but it is probably hard for outsiders to understand how exhausting and nerve-racking the waiting has been for Kosovo’s population. Negotiations have followed negotiations, months and years have gone by, but independence which has at times seemed like a done deal has remained elusive. Now there is finally some light at the end of the tunnel and that is just as well because patience was indeed beginning to wear thin.
Following the expected failure of the 120 days of negotiations, the US and most of the EU have finally recognized the impossibility of ever reaching any agreement between Serbs and Albanians on the issue of status. What is more important to Kosovar Albanians though is that most in the EU seem to have finally made up their minds that some form of independence is unavoidable. Indeed there seems to be a new momentum now in the drive to secure independence and a recognition and acceptance of the fact that even unilateral independence, without a Security Council resolution is preferable to an untenable status quo.
The reasons behind this apparent determination to bring things to a conclusion are manifold. On the one hand there is the realization that the belief that Kosovo could yet again revert to Serb rule was based much more on na෥ wishful thinking than a rational analysis of the situation. Such a move would indeed cause a whole new round of conflicts and instability that could very quickly envelop the whole region.
Then there was the Russian factor. Indeed Russia has done far more to guarantee EU unity on the independence of Kosovo than the Albanians could ever have hoped for. At a time when relations between Russia and the West are at their worse since the end of the Cold War, Russian attempt to divide the EU and show its weakness were bound to be a wake up call for unity for most EU capitals. Not that such a result was guaranteed. Objections to the independence of Kosovo were many and for a time it seemed the Russians were indeed being successful in sowing discord. Yet in the end these attempts seem to have had the opposite effect of what the Russians had planned and by relying exclusively on the Russians the Serbs had shot themselves in the foot. Faced with their failure to secure support for their position on Kosovo Serbia now seems determined to make life as difficult as possible for the new state and it does indeed have the potential to do so. An economic blockade seems a real possibility and no one yet seems to know with any certainty how the situation will develop in the Serb controlled North of Kosovo and the potential for violence there is very real.
In any case although by now it has become apparent that Kosovo will in one way or another become independent sometime in next year, it is far from clear how the situation will develop. An additional postponement for however valid a reason, a minor confrontation could all have disastrous consequences. Indeed it would take a minor spark for the situation to get out of control. People in Kosovo need to know with certainty how independence will come and when as it is the uncertainty and not the actual waiting that causes the tensions. There have already been some worrying signals of small paramilitary groups emerging in Serbia, Kosovo and Macedonia and the longer the situation goes unsolved the more they are going to gain in appeal and sympathy from the local populations and the more are the International Community and the political establishment going to lose their support and legitimacy.