By Sabri Godo
Three questions arise on possible developments on the day after the proclamation of Independence. First, what kinds of pressure could Belgrade exert on Kosovo? Second, what will be the reaction of the Serbs in Kosovo, particularly the Serbs of Mitrovica and third, what will be Russia’s next move? No doubt Washington and Brussels have weighed up all the possible scenarios and developments. However, of the utmost importance is that the Albanians themselves are well prepared to cope with any possible situation. Let’s have a closer look and each expected development.
In relation to Kosovo being blocked by Serbia, there is talk, first of a cessation of all trade and a shut down of electric power and water supplies. Last year, Kosovo imported 190 million worth of food products and building materials from Serbia, equal to 16 per cent of Kosovo’s overall imports. Kosovo can purchase these items easily from other neighbouring countries. Electric power imported from Serbia and via Serbia is worth 30 million. The Albanian Energy Corporation Director Gjergj Bojaxh, says that if Serbia blocks power supply, this would cause a reaction of the countries in the region and of the UCTE, the Regulatory Center based in Switzerland. In any case, an electric power block of this kind would do nothing other than add an extra one hour of power cuts throughout Kosovo. As regards water supplies, reference is made here to the Gazivoda Spring, in the north of Kosovo which is under the jurisdiction of UNMIK, and beyond any possibility of Serbia blocking it. If Serbia closes its border to the movement of people, the people of Kosovo have always preferred other roads of reaching their destinations. The doors of Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro are wide open to the people of Kosovo.
Belgrade’s threats in the domain of the economy do not constitute any grave problem and are difficult to realize, because they would affect the Serbs of Kosovo first and foremost. Any concern of substance lies in another direction. For some time now, there has been talk that when independence is proclaimed, the radicals may realize a mass withdrawal of Serbs from Kosovo, to justify unrest caused by ethnic bands. It is difficult to imagine that the Serbs of Kosovo would submit en masse to such a move.
The real encumbrance is Mitrovica, which since the very beginning of the conflict remained a Serb zone, in contravention of Resolution 1224. It may happen that Serbia proclaims the area a tiny “Serbska Republika,” as it did in Bosnia, evil and unsuccessful offspring. Apart from nationalistic pride, such a move may also be dictated by the fact that once, the Mitrovica mines were European leaders in the production of led and zinc, and one of the closest kept secrets of the Yugoslav Government was always how much gold and silver were extracted from there. But, in Kosovo as it has always done, NATO will not allow the territorial integrity of Kosovo to be threatened.
Russia played the Kosovo card so strongly to yet again prove to the West that it was back, and a mighty power, and that absolutely nothing could be done without Russia rubber stamping it, particularly in Europe. However, with the very elegant move of transferring the issue of Kosovo from the UN Security Council to the European Community, Russia was left grappling with its frustration internally and no other option than to accept the “calamity” of Kosovo’s independence. Rumour has it that both Moscow and Belgrade have prepared a secret packet for Kosovo. Let’s see what’s inside when they’re opened. Russia may stall Kosovo’s admittance into different international Institutions for a certain time, that is not desirable, but neither is it any huge deal. By orientating the flow of oil and gas in the direction of Serbia and Bulgaria, it appears that Russia is falling back on the Slavo-Orthodox strategies of the past, but still this does not place Kosovo under unbearable pressure. Moves like this are spearheaded against the United States and Europe in regard to interests of another nature. Moscow’s screeching that Kosovo’s independence constitutes a precedent is far from convincing. Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, which have already broken away from Serbia, do not constitute any precedent. Even less so can Kosovo be a precedent, with the one nationality, with no links at all to the Slav-Orthodox peoples of the former bizarre Yugoslavia.
Perhaps the victory of Tadic may fail to moderate the malevolent stand of Belgrade towards Kosovo, because the reins of the state remain in the hands of Prime Minister Koshtunica, who threatens severance of relations with those states that acknowledge the new State of Kosovo. On 6 February, Kostunica’s indignation was more than evident when he refused to sign Serbia’s SAA with the European Community. Nonetheless, it cannot be said that Kostunica feels he stands on firm ground. The last elections revealed that at least half the Serbs finally understood what Milovan Gjilasi has been saying for a long time, that Serbia will only set out along its road of progress when it unloads itself of the burden that is Kosovo. If what I have said above coincides with reality, I could then say without hesitation that, externally, Kosovo has fully resolved the problem of independence. Nevertheless, if Serbia steps up pressure against Kosovo, Europe, in return, must step up pressure regarding Serbia’s integration to the same degree. Problems of the West with Russia, however, assume completely different proportions.
Over the last ten years, Kosovo has been one of the key issues of Europe and a head ache for the UN. Now, we face the complicated birth of the State of Kosovo. Europe is to send an expedition of two thousand personnel to await this new infant; legal experts, judiciary, employees and police to monitor the implementation of the “Ahtissari” Packet. The Leader of this expedition is Peter Feis from the Netherlands, a senior politician, well seasoned in crisis situations, who has the right to annul a decision of the Parliament of Kosovo, just in case this Parliament makes a faux pas. Kosovo is described as being multi-ethnic and this is a particular case, because no other state, with eight percent of its population made up of different minorities, has ever been described as multi-ethnic. The “Ahtissari” Packet grants the Serb minority in Kosovo extra-territorial rights, which no other minority in the region enjoys.
Why all these extraordinary measures for Kosovo; why such a difficult birth? Some believe that all of a sudden the door will be thrown open on the dark dungeon that has been imprisoning Kosovo for so long, and the infuriated crowds may rebel on emerging into the light of day. Understandable, if you take history and recent events into account. Reliable statistics reveal that in 100 years, Serb genocide, programmed and enshrined in platforms that have been made public, has massacred and liquidated 200 thousand people of Kosovo. This genocide reached a climax during two World Wars, and resurfaced with brute force in 1999. The graves of more than two thousand victims of this last war have still not been found. For the sake of the truth, perhaps it should be mentioned that in the more distant past, the Albanians have also undertaken the occasional incursion into Serb villages. This is the current historical foundation on which Kosovo is being born. But, if Kosovo has been groaning profusely for the last nine years, it is demonstrating, in all sincerity, that as far as Kosovo is concerned, the tragedies of the past will be nothing than historical memories that will never impede it from building its European future. Within 150 years, Germany and France waged three devastating wars against each other, but it was precisely these two countries that made up the axis of the European Community and which now live alongside each other without any borders. Kosovo stretched its hand out towards Serbia to follow the same example. Kosovo did this in resolute reconciliatory efforts to live in peace with 100 thousand Serbs who are in Kosovo, but also with the friendship treaty which the Serb State itself previously proposed. Kosovo wants to leave the past to the past and just get on with it. It is led by a political class that very rapidly picks up western culture and that of integration. Whoever views Kosovo’s independence with reserve, only sees shadows.
Surprisingly enough, foreigners visiting Tirana often very gingerly pose the question as to whether or not the Albanians dream of a Greater Albania. But it is beyond our abilities to secretly dream. We are more than ready to talk about one another and of course about Kosovo.
President Topi’s visit to Kosovo, particularly to Peja and Prizren, drew huge crowds. They were friendly and enthusiastic, but also showed excellent conduct. A foreigner could perhaps have jumped to the conclusion of the possibility of union with Albania, but because I understand the unspoken language of the people of Kosovo, I would say that all the cheering was nothing but gratitude that we have always been there for them and perhaps an indication that we can celebrate the much awaited independence together. There was not a single call for unification amongst those hundreds of people in the crowd. Not a single political force of any substance, either here or in Kosovo nurtures any such idea. We will be two Albanian states standing alongside each other and any union may be achieved only when we enter Europe. What more can we do to convince foreigners that there is no danger of a Greater Albania. But we will prove this in the months and years to come.
The Albanian State must draft a clear cut, long term program for cooperation with Kosovo. To begin the process we should open an embassy there, in conformity with the importance this cooperation has. There is a lot of poverty in Kosovo and high rates of unemployment. But Kosovo has huge human and material resources for rapid growth. Coal reserves are said to be about thirteen billion tons which could make Kosovo a source of energy for the whole region. Kosovo also has substantial resources of other minerals and ores. Kosovo could export bread grain and fruit, if the green light is given to agriculture on that very fertile land. Then why don’t we look at a program of economic cooperation in view of these developments. The same language, the history and the culture give us a huge advantage in communication in the fields of education, healthcare, justice etc. The major over-land route from Durres to Kukes should continue on down to Vlora. Kosovo has a vital need for access to the sea, just as we need a good motorway, with all its subsidiaries that will allow us to travel swiftly to Kosovo and further beyond. Our economic and social development must be reviewed in-depth, proceeding from the factor of an independent Kosovo. Are we working on this, are the right preparations being made for such an obligation?
We Albanians have a custom that we fire guns into the air at a wedding. Great Sunday, on 17 February, 2008, the letters of which will be embossed in gold alongside those of 28 November 1912; in other words this particular Sunday, every shot in the air will resound like a curse and the penalty will be five years imprisonment. First of all, on Great Sunday, which is almost here, let’s congratulate one another within our own families and then shake hands with whomever we encounter during the course of that day; let’s give one another a big hug and exchange bouquets of flowers in this very beautiful Spring of the Nation. The only sounds resembling gun shots on that day will be the fireworks filling the skies in the evening. Let’s hope that all Albanians, wherever they are, can raise a toast to the liberty of Kosovo, to peace in the region, and to a future within Europe as rapidly as possible. It is our right to celebrate.
Sabri Godo
