The parliamentary elections to be held this coming Sunday will be crucially important from three perspectives. First of all, the June 28th elections are expected to mark a turning point towards a finally free and fair electoral process in compliance with international standards. After a relatively long transition dominated by conflict that has often been incited by controversial electoral processes, free and fair elections leading to uncontested results are decisive for political stability, economic development and Albania’s EU integration ambitions.
Second, by virtue of their relationship with political stability and security, the outcome of these elections will determine the stability or instability of government. It remains to be seen if the elections will result in a weak or strong government. After the electoral process, the Albanian political elite might face another test of political maturity if the need arises for consensus in forming the next government. The test of political maturity will clearly emerge with the need for alliances to form the next government in a context where the logic of the zero-sum game has prevailed.
Third, the electoral process and results of political parties will have substantial effects on the reform processes within political parties, on their futures as well as on the further existence of some Albanian parties that have accessed parliament and governance despite insufficient support from the electorate. In simple terms, will Albania head towards political bipolarity or will small parties survive? In the latter case there is for the first time the possibility for small parties to determine the composition of the next government, and consequently, its stability.
Scenario 1: DP or SP gets 71 seats in parliament
Even though some forty parties, grouped in roughly four coalitions will compete on Sunday, it is clear that the real contest is between the DP, in power, and the SP in opposition. Claims of other parties aside, it is perfectly possible and the most likely scenario that one of the big parties, alone or together with their respective coalitions, wins 71 seats in parliament.
Such a result would translate into a strong and stable government. The victory of one of the big parties on its own, however, would have serious ramifications for the other big party and certainly for the future of small parties.
More concretely, if the DP of Premier Berisha wins 71 seats in parliament (it is doubtful that any of its allies will win any seats), radical changes would be upon the SP of Mayor Edi Rama. The first to be affected is Rama’s own future at the head of the Socialist Party. Losing the elections will make Rama more of an outsider to the SP than ever before. Edi Rama’s loss would foster favourable ground for the return of Ilir Meta and Fatos Nano at the lead of the Socialist Party. Even though Rama may be able to control a good part of the socialist parliamentary group that may emerge from these elections, his longevity at the head of the SP will be questioned.
On the contrary, if the Socialist Party wins 71 seats, the chances of former premier Fatos Nano to return to politics will be nearing zero. Likewise, the future of the other leftwing party, the Socialist Movement for Integration of Ilir Meta, will be put to doubt. Victory of the Socialist Party sends the incumbent Premier Berisha in opposition, but certainly not out of politics.
Scenario 2: None of the big parties wins 71 seats
Such a scenario would see a weak and generally unstable government come to power. In this case, which party gets the first say in forming the government is highly important. If the DP comes first with less than 71 seats, the natural coalition would be with the Pole of Liberty and/or the Party of Human Rights. If the necessary parliamentary majority is not reached with these two parties, it is perfectly possible for the solution to be “the market”. It has and can definitely happen again that some oppositional lawmakers are “sold” at the highest price possible and thus aid the formation of the new government. If these alliances and market operations still do not make the majority of 71 parliamentarians, the ball passes to the Socialist Party.
In case the Socialist Party is called in, be it because it comes first or because the DP fails to create a government, it will be difficult though possible for the SP and the SMI of former premier Ilir Meta to make up the new government. The success, stability and longevity of a common government between the SP and SMI will depend on Edi Rama’s will to share governance, to share power with Ilir Meta.
Scenario 3: Cross-spectrum coalition – DP and SMI
In case neither the SP nor the DP win a stable majority of seats in parliament, small parties are naturally granted a decisive role. The SMI leadership has already articulated its strength in its kingmaker potential. Though seemingly unthinkable, it is perfectly possible for SMI winning candidates to “betray” their party and join the DP ranks. A public rationale could be of all sorts. Albania’s integration ambitions, its political stability and whatnot could form the public face of this move.
As already argued, though, a DP-led government would set the SP leadership in crisis opening the path to the return of former leading figures. And this could indeed be the underlying rationale of this move. After accomplishing the destabilization of the SP, the digressing SMI faction could seek re-integration, destabilize government and lead the country to early elections.
Scenario 4: Grand governing coalition
No chance.
Scenario 5: Clear-cut evidence of violation of the integrity of the electoral process, and thus its legitimacy
No comment.
