Finances forecast a growth rate of 4.8% in 2009

TIRANA, July 6؉n its latest analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the Ministry of Finance (MF)forecasted economic growth of 4.8% in 2009 and declared that growth in 2010 will return to its normal level of around 6%.
According to the MF, despite the ongoing crisis in international markets, the performance of the Albanian economy is relatively good. Preservation of macroeconomic stability, such holding inflation at around 3%, lowering the public debt according to Maastricht requirements and improvement of the current account deficit will help Albania keep the same growth rate of 6% throughout 2010-2012.
Based on normal climate conditions, agriculture production is projected to grow around 3-3.5%, which is its historic yearly average.
Industrial production, including the mining industry, could grow by 8.4% in real terms in 2009 compared to the previous year. An average growth rate of 4% has been forecasted for the 2010-2012 period.
The construction sector should experience an average growth of 6.4% in 2010-2012 yet only 2.3% in 2009, the lowest since 1999.
The service industry will grow by 5% in 2009 to follow with an average rate of 6.6% in 2010-2012. Main contributors in this sector should be commerce, transport, and telecommunications.
Public investments should experience a slight growth of 1.4% in 2009 and private investments will increase by 5% this year compared to 13% and 8% in 2008 and 2007 respectively. The analysis points to the tightened credit by banks as the main reason for the slowdown in investment growth rate.
Lastly, according to the MF analysis, consumption in 2009 will grow by only 1.1% in real terms in 2009, but the average growth rate for the following 2010-12 period is predicted at 4.8%. The slight increase in 2009 was forecasted by taking into consideration possible effects of the global crisis in key variables for the calculation of final consumption.
GDP growth in the next four years is forecasted to be 4.8% in 2009, 6% in 2010, 6.9% in 2011, and 6.7% in 2012.