A mild positive growth of 1.4 percent of GDP is expected for the year as a whole thanks to large growth in the other two quarters, according to a recent EBRD forecast.
Tirana Times
TIRANA, June 15 – Albania could dip into a short-lived recession in the second and third quarters of 2010, as numbers predicted in a recent report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecast two quarters in a row of negative growth.
However, a mild positive growth of 1.4 percent of GDP is expected for the year as a whole thanks to large growth in the other two quarters, according to the EBRD forecast.
For the January to March period, the EBRD expects a 6.1 percent increase in GDP. The second quarter will see a low point, -2 percent, while the third quarter would be -0.7 percent of GDP. The fourth quarter will see high growth at 7 percent.
The bank had earlier projected and increase of 2 percent of GDP in 2010, but an EBRD report published recently says the bank thinks Albania’s GDP will now grow by only 1.4 percent of GDP.
“While Albania, a country that outperformed the region during 2009 with positive economic growth, is expected to have a more moderate growth for 2010, reflecting the impact of recent flooding, a reduction in income and capital in remittances and slow credit growth,” the report says.
Albanian officials have often disagreed with forecasts from international organizations, calling them too conservative. In 2009, the international organizations were indeed proven wrong as the final data came out to show Albanian saw growth as the rest of the region languished.
However, according to the EBRD, Albania is particularly vulnerable to the Greek crisis, because a lot of remittances come from Albanian emigrants living in the neighboring country, most of whom are seasonal. The slowdown of economic growth in Albania deals with a range of economic indicators.
For 2011, the EBRD expects a growth of 3.1 percent. But 2010 offers a lower forecast.
