By Alba à‡ela
2016 is a pre-electoral year in Albania when most of the developments create the framework for the overall conduct of the elections. The Electoral Code is expected to change reflecting some of the laws adopted last year but also calculations of political actors based on their updated strategies.
This year will see the justice reform process testing not only the patience of the internationals but also the durability of the main political coalitions. The state of the European Union will determine whether Albania reaches any other important milestones this year much more than internal reforms and so far the picture looks complex. The Union seem rightly preoccupied with its internal crisis and increasing disunity to risk anything amore with the enlargement discourse. However surprises cannot be excluded.
The state of the economy is the key variable that will be monitored after the simultaneous reforms of 2015 which did not yield the estimated and durable results. The cuts in spending are the classic double edged sword which on one side aim for positive fiscal consolidation and on the other side don’t help GDP growth through hampering consumption.
An interesting registration of Albanian migrants, the first ever in history, is supposed to commence in 2016 which would then pave the way for important developments such as the right to vote from abroad. In the longer term this will reshape the political life in Albania.
Last but not least this summer will have most of us watching the beautiful game since the Albanian National Soccer team gets to kick the ball in the European Championship after a much sought after qualification.
Let’s take a closer look:
Justice reform
The justice reform will dominate most of the public and political discourse and actions especially in the first half of 2016. Described by the current American Ambassador in Albania as the most important reform to have happened since the fall of the communist regime, the justice reform seeks to address one of the most difficult impediments of a functional state and democracy in Albania: a corrupt judicial system hated and distrusted by citizens and regularly manipulated by the political class. The first days of the year have already shown that consensus on the reform is very fragile with the opposition and the majority clashing frequently on its design and on the way decisions will be taken. Expect international actors to continue playing a decisive role in guaranteeing not only the consensus but also upholding work on the most challenging pillars of the reform. However the process is expected to have ups and downs and even short bursts of gridlock.
Another expectation is more information to the public about the effectiveness of the new designations in the draft of the reform, something that has been lacking so far.
The implications of the justice reform as well as those of the process of drafting and approving the relevant legislative package are several. In the short term the implications are mostly political with the consensus between ruling coalition parties as well as between opposition and majority depending on the developments. Given that this is a pre-electoral year these dynamics will shape also the climate in which the electoral campaign shall start. In the long term the positive scenario would see the track record of prosecuted and convicted corrupt high officials including those from the system itself rise.
However even if everything falls into place and the reform goes along the predicted timeline its real effects would be evident in the medium term, after 2-3 years when the process of evaluation and monitoring of the judges and prosecutors, predicted in the reform, would be complete. The positive scenario would be that optimal progress in the reform steps would give a good impetus to the European integration of Albania. Legitimizing the request to get an official date for the opening of the negotiations.
The implementation of decriminalization- the first clues
The law addressing decriminalization of elected and appointed public officials in Albania was passed in the Assembly after many political frictions and disagreements and with major international backing. Its ultimate implementation testing ground will be the lists of candidates for MPs that will be drawn in the first half of 2017 for the general elections. However there will be clues already in 2016 about the attitude of the parties themselves about doing the homework that this law requires. These clues will also appear in the changes in the Electoral Code. On both sides of the political spectrum there exist individuals with problematic pasts but with extensive influence as vote-generators in their local communities. So far leaders have been keen on removing them away from the limelight of public attention but still keeping them well integrated within the party internal administration.
The potential implications of the full implementation of the decriminalization process will not only shape the quality of the debate in the Parliament. They will ultimately determine what role models for success Albanian youth has. Albania needs to do away with the model of tough rich criminals making it up to the law-making seats in order to inspire young people to achieve their success through hard honest work.
Electoral legislation- let the calculations begin
Albania will hold its next round of General Elections in 2017 and there are clear moves that indicate that there will be changes to the Electoral Code (yes again!). The Speaker of the Parliament and head of the Socialist Movement for Integration, currently the kingmaker party of political coalitions, Ilir Meta has requested such changes in a letter sent to other political parties. Already both SP and DP have spoken in favor of sitting down to decide how to change the Electoral Code. The basis for this changes is officially the recommendations list provided by the OSCE- ODHIR mission after the Local elections last year, but one should not rule out the calculations of the political actors especially in the context of the territorial reform which has redrawn the map in Albania.
Changes would need to reflect the content of the decriminalization law ultimately barring certain profiles from making it into the candidate lists. The administration of elections on the ground, so far made up by people appointed by political parties, might be another element up to change. Civil society has often argued that the administration needs to be independent and professional. The first step will be the creation of the relevant Parliamentary Commission for the Reform.
Another major change that is popular with the public is the opening up of candidates list, with voters being able to determine the preferred candidates rather than choosing a fixed order list) Currently the fact that the lists are closed vests party leader with an almost authoritarian mandate on shaping the composition of the Assembly.
Start of accession negotiations or (more likely) lack of thereof
Although European integration is the umbrella that covers all the other objectives of the Albanian executive and legitimized most of the major reforms, the situation inside the European Union does not seem very favorable for Albania to take the next step: be assigned a date for the start of negotiations. One optimistic scenario is that should considerable success be achieved in the justice reform the Union might grant a date to reward the efforts and revitalize its enlargement process at the same time. However the Union for the moment I deeply involved in the handling of the refugee crisis as well as security threats. The Dutch presidency which shall cover the first six months of the year does not mention enlargement as one of its priorities. The Slovak presidency which will follow is not expected to act otherwise.
The dynamics of integration will have implications on the popular perceptions and expectations vis-à -vis the integration process. Surveys have shown that the initial overboard enthusiasm in Albania has stabilized into more normal support figures which are nevertheless still high. However should the process not register any milestones this year it will send fatigue signals in the public which in turn might react with slightly higher skepticism about the EU.
Registration of immigrants
The Albanian government last month unveiled an ambitious plan to register all the Albanians living abroad. The registration will start immediately in 2016 with the first six months of providing an online voluntary registration option. The process according to the Prime Minister will eventually guarantee the right of Albanian immigrants to vote while for the Foreign Minister it will be the basis of drafting an Action Plan for the Diaspora.
Although almost half of the Albanian citizens reside abroad and contribute to a great extent to the domestic economy through remittances, most of the administrations so far have not had any strategic approach to have systemic knowledge about their number, location and profile in order to then sue the diaspora as a true asset for the advancement of Albania’s political and economic goals.
Economy- everything is changing
GDP growth is expected to pick up some pace arriving at up to 3.5 % while some key developments place fiscal consolidation at the helm of priorities. Fiscal deficit is expected to be at a historical low of 2.2 % of GDP according to the last official estimations. Both improvements in the Eurozone which affect Albania to a large extent as well as fiscal consolidation are expected to boost confidence in the economic actors. Coupled with the current monetary policy a modest rise in the easiness of financing consumption and investment is expected.
Despite the optimistic official predictions about GDP growth in Albania, many experts believe that they will be revisited leading to lower figures during the year, as it has been the case several times before.
One positive step is that of dealing with the non-performing loans, undertaken rigorously under the lead of the Central Bank and which is something to watch for its first results in 2016. Overall a high level of insecurity and upheaval is in place which affects the decisions of economic players including the much sought-after foreign investors. The tax environment in Albania is not competitive in the regional context. Major concessions are being revisited. Economic regulation decisions last year were changed many times shifting from sticks to carrots in the hope of achieving a higher degree of formality in the economy.
On the aspect of infrastructure investments and energy projects, works related to the TAP pipeline is expected to intensify with major procurement contracts to be announced early and groundwork in relation to the tubes placement to start in the middle of the year. Also work in the Devolli hydropower plant, has been going on with other advancements expected in 2016.
The start of regional infrastructure and connectivity projects submitted in the Summits of Vienna and Berlin could provide another good boost to the economy in Albania and in the region.
More airports, more flights
The negotiations to remove the monopolistic concession given to the Tirana Rinas airport operating company are well under way and so are the specific plans to open other smaller airports in places where at least some of the infrastructure is in place such as Kukes. This year low cost air companies which are already very present in other countries of the region could make their debut in Albania.
One potential implications would be favorable to Albanian consumers is the lowering of flights mainly due to lower airport taxes. Another positive effect would be the encouraging of tourism though providing location specific gateways in the north and south of Albania which hold also the most attractive tourist spots. Should the airport in Kukes become functional the effects will reverberate throughout several other countries in the region such as Kosovo, Macedonia and even Serbia.
The beautiful game
Despite the challenges and portrayed in the previous lines, Albanians will have a reason to celebrate come June this year when the national soccer team joins the European Championship in France. It has been a historical sports classification for Albanians achieved after many difficulties and even unprecedented struggles. Hence many fans will set and watch the players kick the ball in the first match against Romania and hope with all their heart to get past the first qualifications round. So as the famous saying from one of the best classics of cinema goes:
We will always have Paris!
