Economic crisis and new governments in Greece and Serbia mean Albania and the region face a new set of challenges.
TIRANA TIMES COVER STORY
TIRANA, July 05 – There are new leaders in Athens and Belgrade, and Tirana should watch with caution, because the changes could have big for Albania and Albanians as well as the wider region, foreign policy experts say.
Now that the Greek electoral drama is over, and the pro-EU bailout agreement parties have formed a government, there is a sense of political normalcy returning to the government south of the border. It is unclear what the new Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ center-right coalition government will mean for Albanians, but one thing is certain: whatever the Greek government does has strong implications related not only to Albanian immigrants in Greece but a full array of foreign policy issues that are vital to this country’s interests. As such Tirana should keep a careful watch.
Perhaps with fewer direct implications for Albania, but with plenty more for Kosovo and the wider region, there is also the return to power in Serbia of the Milosevic’s Socialist Party through the election of nationalist Tomislav Nikolic as president. This comes with a large set of challenges that could hurt the uneasy stability in Kosovo and Bosnia.
“It it could indicate a step backward in the region’s EU progress,” says Albert Rakipi of the Albanian Institute of International Studies. And that’s despite assurances by the new Serb leader that he wants to keep Serbia on the EU path. “The Serb election is part of a wider trend in the increase the influence of extremists in a number of Balkan and European countries.”
What is happening in Serbia and Greece should be seen in the context of economic crisis, Dr. Rakipi notes. But apart from the context of economic crisis or the European trend, the emergence of fascist parties in Greece and the return to power of the nationalists from the Milosevic era in Serbia show there are regional factors at stake.
Greece hurting, yet unbending
The economic crisis in Greece and its implications for the eurozone have dominated the global headlines for months. The country is hurting immensely, yet in the midst of the crisis, the Greek government have sent clear messages they will not change the policies or funding they see as promoting Greek interests in the region (some of which are seen as nationalist and populist in places like Tirana and Skopje).
For years, consecutive Greek governments ruled by the New Democracy and PASOK parties which are now in the governing coalition together have pushed hard to artificially increase the number of the Greek minority in Albania, for example, paying pensions and offering other funding.
And the nationalistic concerns are always there, bubbling under the surface. In news made public this week, for example, Albania’s main Greek minority organization, Omonia, is now conducting its own census of ethnic Greeks in Albania after it accused the official Albanian census authorities of failing to do a proper job. It’s unclear where the funding for this unofficial census came from, but it’s likely Athens involved.
Albanian experts note that often Greek parliamentary parties and individuals focus on what divides the two countries instead of creating a good neighborly relation and relations with Greece may continue to be problematic.
The status quo feels almost like a relationship gone cold, says Dr. Rakipi of AIIS. During the last two years, for example, no senior Greek official has visited Albania and vice-versa.
The friendship and cooperation treaty between the two countries in not being implemented, and there are serious problems unsolved, including that recently-scrapped agreement for the continental shelf and the marine border between the two countries.
“The truth is that Greek-Albanian relations are not ruled by reason and accountability, but rather by the logic of public statements, misinterpretations and anachronisms. Perception prevails over reality. 1912, 1913, 1914, 1919, 1941, 1945 are more attractive years of political reference compared to 1991, 1996 and definitely 2009 and 2012,” former Greek Ambassador Alexandros Mallias said in recent conference in Tirana. “The exact diagnosis of the state of the bilateral relationship at this point requires the skills of a psychiatrist, rather than those of a diplomat. My impression is that both Tirana and Athens feel comfortable with the current situation. Prolonging the present situation, however, is not in the best interest of Greece and Albania. It also erodes the possible albeit necessary political, parliamentarian and indeed public support for an eventual accord and deal.”
In relations to Serbia too, Greece often doesn’t follow it’s best interests, says a Greek diplomat.
“It would also be a good thing if Greece looked out for its own interests beyond the framework determined by Belgrade. Serbia is in a position to defend and promote its own interests regarding Albania and Kosovo and is already doing it behind the scenes in Brussels and in Tirana. Longstanding friendships are good, but safeguarding Greek interests with the Albanians is preferable,” Ambassador Mallias said in a speech was held in the international conference in Tirana in March.
Serbian nationalism returns under a new suit
The election of Mr. Nikolic in Serbia, and his predicted stances on Kosovo and the region are a big warning for the Balkans – and could also mean step backwards on security issues, experts at the Albanian Institute for International Studies warn.
First there was talk that the Serbian army should return Kosovo, which was later denied. Then Serb gendarmes rewrote their oath to swear on Kosovo as their motherland. This all happened as the international community officially ended supervision on Kosovo’s independence.
The new Serb president says he is a reformed nationalist who wants the country to become and EU member, but few can forget that Mr. Nikolic was also deputy prime minister under Mr. Milosevic when NATO bombed Belgrade in 1999 to stop the killings of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.
As such, Kosovo analysts expect an even more adversarial relationship between Prishtina and Belgrade in the coming months – and a regression in regional stability.
“The situation is unpredictable in Serbia and the return on the people of Miloshevic in power Šshows it was wrong to begin with to tie to future of Kosovo and its EU future with having a dialogue with Serbia,” writes journalist Agustin Paloka in a recent op/ed piece published in the Albanian media.
Albania’s foreign policies hurt by domestic problems
Albania meets this new regional reality as a NATO member caught in internal political conflicts of its own which have limited its ability to play and active role in foreign affairs and move forward its EU integration plans, according to experts at the Albanian Institute for International Studies.
As Tirana faces new challenges in the region, political conflict in Albania and the deep disagreement between government and opposition have eroded a lot of the strength needed to play a role in the Balkans and beyond.
“Success in Albania’s foreign affairs will largely depend on success in domestic affairs. However, it is also critical that Albania reviews its international relations, focusing on, but not being limited to, the Balkan states,” notes the report. “Albania does not seem to have a Balkan foreign policy and seems to shy away, if not fear having a foreign policy on the region. Regional cooperation in the Balkans cannot be successful unless there is first a healthy relationship between states at the bilateral level.”
Albania’s key goal has always been to play a constructive role in the region with active support for Western policy in the Balkans. The pursuit of an opposite course has mostly been an assumed concern of the western partners rather that something likely to materialize. And the problems between Albania and Greece need to be solved based on international law, the stock of international documents, and on European values, the experts note.
