Early elections as a problem and as a solution

By Tirana Times editorial Staff
The failure to achieve a consensus in the upcoming presidential elections due next month may bring Albania to early elections. Almost two years after the center-right coalition led by Dr. Berisha’s Democratic Party came to power, government and opposition do not exclude the possibility of early elections. Especially after the most recent vote leaks in the ruling majority’s parliamentary group, it has become impossible for the majority to marshal the three fifths of the votes necessary to elect the President.
Local analysts believe that early elections would constitute a highly undesirable development for two main reasons. First, it is doubtful that they would produce what they set out to doء three fifth majority in parliament that can agree on a single candidate for President. Since the main actors which are the current parties’ leaders would remain the same irrespective of electoral performance, there is no reason to believe that different numbers in parliament would change the terms under which each actor enters in the presidential negotiations.
Second, the country is not ready to hold free and fair elections. The legal infrastructure, elections administration and the electoral system itself are in urgent need of reform but such reform has been postponed due to the more urgent need to elect the country’s new President.
Although both sides know that the country is not ready for early elections and, anyway such elections would not produce the necessary majority, in a typical game of brinkmanship they are threatening each otherءs well as their own MPsطith the possibility of losing seats in parliament.
Prime Minister Berisha expressed his readiness to achieve a consensus with the opposition while at the same time threatening early elections. Yet, it is unlikely that the government is truly interested to go to the ballots at least for two reasons. First, although reliable polls are lacking, it is possible that the government is in its lowest quotas of support to date. A number of reforms undertaken this year have alarmed social and interest groups. Just a few days ago, after the great furor raised by business groups, the President vetoed the latest “law on fines” as it has come to be known popularly. A number of other proposals such as the minimum wage have also run into staunch opposition.
Further, the government’s achievements are few and far between. A number of infrastructure projects have either been postponed, started after a two year hiatus or are proceeding very slowly.
Albeit for other reasons, the opposition is also not convinced of the need for early elections. Despite the convincing performance of Mr. Rama as SP chairman in the last local elections in February 2007, he still requires further time and more stormy congresses to consolidate his leadership within SP
It seems that all paths do not lead to early elections. The government does not need them, the opposition does not want them, and the country is not ready for them.
And if there is consensus for the Presidentſ
However, it is not only the issue of the President that may bring the country to early elections. Developments within the majority have brought into questions the capacity of the government to weather successfully any non-confidence votes in parliament. Last week, a MP of the ruling DP lost his life in a tragic traffic accident, while another MP became independent from the DP group. This is the second time a DP member of parliament willingly quits party membership after the notorious case of Mr. Spartak Ngjela. Furthermore, Bujar Leskaj, previous Minister of Culture, has lately voted against the DP in a number of controversial draft laws.
The ever-increasing Christian Democrat parliamentary group is also slowly encroaching on DP territory threatening the security of Mr. Berisha’s government. At the moment, the CDP has 8 seats in parliament while its leader, Nard Ndoka, Minister of Health, declared that the CDP will double its seats in a practice that has been followed successfully by Mr. Ndoka. This is the first time that a party wins parliamentary seats from backstage negotiations rather than the polls.
Proportional to their ever increasing weight, the CDP has requrested other posts beyond what it already posseses in the current government and public administration. However, the DP has already given away most of the important posts that bring the state and society in daily contact with each other: health, education, environment and even defense. That is, while the CDP gets increasingly hungrier, the DP has increasingly less to dole out.
In such a circumstance where small untested parties control the governing majority, eearly elections may be a way out for the frustrated DP. That is, early elections are dependent not only on the election of the President, but also on the functioning of Albanian democracy and the legitimacy of political parties.
This Albanian Pandora’s box was opened in the elections of 2001 when the Socialist Party included its minor allies in parliament through the Dushk phenomenon whereشhrough a cunning mathematical calculation that broke the spirit but not the letter of the lawشwenty deputies entered parliament from the single Dushk village. In the 2005 elections the DP managed its own Dushk better than the SP and managed to get 11 members of the allied Republican Party elected. What would happen if the RP demands a second post in government? More importantly, why should it not in the face of the demands of the CDP?
It would not be surprising if the Prime Minister tries to cut through the trap in which he has fallenء web of alliances he spawned himself. And the only way out are early elections.