IMF: Albania Leads Europe In Economic Growth in Q1 2009

TIRANA, May 12؄espite the global economic crisis, Albania has experienced a positive economic growth in the first quarter of 2009. Cyprus is the only other country Europe that also has a positive growth for the period.
IMF announced the data in its latest report where Albania and Cyprus had a respective growth of 0.4% and 0.3% in Q1 of 2009.
The report, also includes corrections of economic growth evaluations for the past years. According to the latest data, economic growth of Albania in 2007 and 2008 has been 6.3% and 6.8% respectively. Yet, the 2008 evaluation differs from the official data posted by INSTAT for a growth of 8%.
Regarding the forecast in 2009, , given the first quarter performance, IMF predicts a positive growth through the year, while the rest of Europe’s economy is thought to stagnate or evens shrink. As earlier as last month, IMF forecasted only a growth between 0-0.1% for Albania but improved data collection and analysis report a more realistic future. INSTAT reports that, unless of freak developments in the next 9 months, a growth of 4.5-5% for the whole year.
The game of forecasting remains an unpredictable and unreliable effort. Many forecasts have been publish in the last month with conclusion varying greatly. No institution, local or international, has the certainty of what is to happen and the crisis itself has shown many times to be far more reaching than expected. However, part of the analysis remains substantial to prevent possible break downs. On many occasions institutions like IMF, WB, and BoA have urged the Albanian government to cut its budget deficit and have warned on possible side effects deriving from shrinking trade volume and diminished remittances. In addition, this an election year, making the situation, politically or economically, more fragile.