When President Bush lost his watch in Tirana, he may have also lost the timetable for Kosova’s independence. While the Americans waver and the Europeans sleep, the Russians are gaining maximum benefits for their veto diplomacy designed to split the West and pose as the protectors of international legality.
The EU remains divided and has failed to develop a coherent foreign or security policy. Germany did not display leadership during its presidency and Portugal is likely to prove even less impressive. Meanwhile, the White House seems unwilling to act without EU unity and Russian acquiescence, both of which do not exist.
This is not a problem of diplomacy or mathematics, but a matter of rationality and logic. When you have two completely opposite positions — independence or non-independence — there is no room for compromise. Anything short of independence will be non-independence and unacceptable to the vast majority of Kosova’s population.
The government and people of Kosova cannot sit quietly and watch the KGB in the Kremlin decide on their fate. If Kosova’s friends fail to deliver on their promises then a plan of action needs to be implemented. In politics, patience can be a virtue but it may also be a vice. Any democratically elected government is answerable primarily to its citizens and not to international agencies.
The government in Prishtina can undertake a five-step strategy to maintain credibility and prevent public unrest. First, it must decide on its own timetable of action and spell out to the internationals that patience expires on a particular day. If no decisions regarding the Ahtisaari plan are taken by the U.S. and EU by Day X, then a plan of democratic action will be implemented.
Second, preparations must be made for a vote in Kosova’s national assembly on declaring outright independence, irrespective of the interference of the UNMIK mission. As a creature of the UN Security Council, beholden to Russian KGB decisions, UNMIK should be formally deligitimized by Prishtina.
Moreover, it is highly misleading to call Kosova’s declaration of independence “unilateral” as every country declares its statehood unilaterally, including the United States in 1776 despite vehement opposition from colonial Britain. Fortunately, there was no UN at that time to veto U.S. independence.
Third, the national assembly needs to pass a constitution and adopt all the symbols of statehood while declaring any blocking moves by UNMIK officials as undemocratic and illegitimate. At the same time, UNMIK should be asked to leave the territory as noone in Kosova sanctioned the mission or elected any of its representatives.
Fourth, the EU should be formally asked to dispatch a mission to Prishtina in line with the Ahtisaari plan and NATO must be welcomed as an essential component of Kosova’s security. However, if the EU fails to respond by a certain date and does not assume responsibility, then Prishtina should announce that the Ahtisaari plan for supervised independence will be put to a parliamentary vote. If it is rejected, then the authorities will revisit the extensive rights granted to Kosova’s Serbian minority.
Fifth, Prishtina should begin to canvass for international recognition. This strategy must contain several elements, including the recognition of all existing borders with neighboring states and the promotion of economic, political, and social ties.
The alternative to a firm governmental plan would mean surrendering Kosova’s fate to militancy and insurgency. Such a strategy would play into the hands of Belgrade and Moscow. The problem with insurgency is that you need a credible target for combat, and neither NATO nor the EU are adversaries but institutions that Kosova eventually hopes to join.
Kosova’s most credible strategy is to allow the international process to continue until a certain date and then take resolute political action to ensure independence in a democratic context. Although Kosova’s international recognition will require resolve and determination, the alternative is unacceptable, as it will mean remaining a pawn of Russia’s imperial ambitions.
