In 2003, the Albanian Institute for International Studies carried out its first study into the levels of support and understanding of the EU integration process amongst Albanians. The study, which was initially based on a survey of selected target groups amongst Albania’s elite groups such as politicians, entrepreneurs, media professionals and public administration workers, grew to include the opinions, levels of information and expectations on the integration process of the Albanian public as a whole, regardless of status, age and education. By the time of this current, seventh, study the data and conclusions provided by the AIIS surveys and reports, have already become something of a point of reference for the integration discourse that takes place in Albania. The often quoted percentages of support for EU integration, of the attitudes of Albanians towards EU integration related reforms, of the evaluation of the work of Albanian governments as pertaining to the integration effort, are in many cases provided by the surveys that the AIIS has carried out through the years.1
Indeed, from the conception of this project back in 2003, it was the objective of the AIIS to provide just that: concrete information on the levels of knowledge, understanding, support, perceptions and expectations of Albanians on the integration process; information not based on hearsay, guess work and assumptions, but rather on solid data gathered through meticulous surveys. Owing to the longevity of this project, the AIIS has contributed to the Albanian political, academic, media and civil society communities, as well as to the public as a whole an invaluable record of the attitudes and perceptions of Albanians vis-ஶis the EU and the integration process since 2003 when Albania officially started negotiating the Stabilization and Association Agreement.
The importance of the project, however, is by no means confined to a matter of academic curiosity. The integration into the EU, alongside the by now successfully concluded integration into NATO, has constituted the most important strategic objective of post-Communist Albania. Indeed, awareness of being a part of Europe and the desire to become part of the European family after decades of dictatorship was without a doubt one of the most important driving forces behind the protests that brought about the fall of the Communist regime in 1990-91. After the advent of democracy, much of the political agenda of Albania’s governments was oriented towards achieving EU membership. The overwhelming majority of the reforms that have been carried out in the country since then, have to a greater or lesser extent been dictated by the integration agenda. And yet, although EU integration has had such a determining influence in shaping post-Communist Albania, much of what was known in terms of public perceptions of the integration process was more often than not based either on assumptions or on sketchy, fragmentary research and studies that failed to provide a complete picture of the attitude of the Albanian public vis-ஶis this process.
Put in simpler terms, Albanian governments advocated and implemented integration related reforms, the Albanian public was told that the reforms were required by the EU and their support on the matter was simply taken for granted. There was absolutely no effort to gauge the levels of local ownership of the process, no attention was paid to involving the public in discussions of the policies and reforms that were being proposed and carried out, and almost no information was provided on what integration entailed, on its costs and benefits. In a nutshell, the integration process was the exclusive domain of the political elite while the majority of the public was basically reduced to accepting and supporting the process and the related reforms on good faith.
Naturally, inherent in such a state of affairs is the risk of disappointment with the integration process as a whole. This too was one of the main concerns that led the AIIS to undertake this project in order to raise awareness on the unsustainable nature of a situation in which the public was kept in the dark of decisions that in one way or another exerted a great impact on their lives. Since 2003 the AIIS, through the publication of its studies on the perceptions of Albanians on the integration process, has continually advocated the need for a greater local ownership of the process, for a greater involvement of the public in the integration debate and for more transparence and openness to public concerns on the part of Albania’s governments. It has by no means succeeded to radically change the situation, nevertheless, through its project the AIIS has contributed to a more lively debate on the issues of integration and by presenting its findings in a simple, easy to digest format it has helped in securing broader coverage in the Albanian media, thus ensuring greater exposure of the public to the debate on integration.
We all love Europe
The survey carried out in May – June of 2010 once again confirms the extremely high levels of support for EU accession that exist in Albania. Uniquely among EU member states – be they old or new members – and for that matter among countries that aspire to join the Union, the percentage of Albanians that support EU integration has constantly hovered between the low and high 90s. In 2010, a full 93.4% replied that they would vote in favor of their country joining the EU were a referendum to be held on the next day. Only 3.6% declared that they would vote against accession in a hypothetical referendum; a figure that if one takes into account the margin of error of the survey also seems to have remained remarkably constant throughout the years.
Secondly, in the perception of many Albanians the perceived benefits of joining the EU simply outweigh any potential costs the integration entails. Thirdly, given the political discourse in post-Communist Albania, EU membership would be perceived by many
Albanians as bringing an end to the hardships and tribulations of the by now 20 year old transition.
The extremely high level of support recorded in the 2010 survey demonstrates that the likelihood of Albanians growing skeptical of EU integration is, at least for the time being, almost non-existent. Furthermore, it also casts the results of the 2009 survey in a completely new light. Thus in 2009, when the percentages who declared themselves in favor of accession fell to a rather ‘low’ 88.7%, it was thought that this result heralded the beginning of a growing Euro-skepticism in Albania. Now, when the levels of support have reverted to business as usual, with support for accession reaching 93.4%, it seems that the dip recorded by the 2009 study should be seen more as a freak result, than as a signal of an emerging trend of skepticism.
The results of the 2010 survey exclude the possibility of significant rise of Euro-skepticism among Albanians, but two pieces of data seem to warrant a rather more cautious reading.
While one cannot speak of outright opposition to accession, there seems to be a cooling down of the enthusiasm of the Albanians for their country’s EU integration. First, the percentage of those who deem integration to be very important has fallen significantly, by 8.9 percentage points as compared to 2009. It stands at the “low” level of 72.6%. The percentage of those who deem integration to be important but not a priority has correspondingly grown by 9.1 percentage points standing at 23.4%.
Standing at 72.6%, the percentage of those who deem integration very important is still very high by any standards, but in the Albanian context it could very well herald the nascent phases of a potential Euro-skepticism. This hypothetical possibility grows more probable if one considers the reasons why Albanians would support integration. Thus the single most important reason for supporting integration, standing at 37%, is free movement. Throughout the years this has constantly been the single most important reason why Albanians supported integration and many in Albania have asked what would happen to the levels of support for EU accession were Albanians allowed to travel freely through the EU. At the moment, given the fact that the visa liberalization is widely expected to take place in the end of 2010 or early 2011, this question assumes a newfound emergency. Will Albanians be as enthusiastic about EU integration and the related costs once they have been granted the possibility to travel freely through Europe?
Next to free movement, expectations of higher living standards once Albania joins the EU constitute the most important reason for voting in favor of accession, standing at 29.3%. The other important reason for support is that accession will consolidate democracy and the rule of law in Albania. A full 17.1% of Albanians would vote in favor of EU accession for this reason. An interesting result consists in the fact that the better educated respondents attached much greater importance to this more, principled expectation, while lesser educated respondents on the whole justified their support based on expectations of more direct, personal benefits such as free movement and higher living standards. The expectations of the benefits Albania stands to gain from EU membership, once again reveal a constant trait of the country’s integration process: the lack of local ownership and understanding of what the process entails. Thus, as in all other surveys carried out by the AIIS, all respondents conceive of the benefits as post accession outcomes rather than achievements to be gained while the country progresses on its integration bid.
EU – strategically the most important partner for Albanians
The importance of the EU to Albanians was also confirmed when respondents indicated who should be Albania’s man strategic partners. The EU gained the most support with a full 82% giving maximal marks to the organization as a strategic partner of Albania. Important EU countries, such as Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, and France also received high scores. The United States, which has historically been popular amongst Albanians, also received very high scores, although it did not match the results obtained by the EU. As far as Albania’s neighboring countries are concerned with the exception of Kosovo (75% for obvious reasons) only Greece received a relatively good score while all the other neighboring countries scored far lower than the EU; a reflection perhaps of the emotionally charged history of the Balkans. The fact that 58% thought that it was important to strengthen relations with Greece as a strategic partner, is positive in light of the historical rivalry between the two countries and the often heated and emotional coverage of incidents involving Albanian migrants in Greece or Greek speaking areas in Albania. It also goes to show that the scale of the much publicized friction between Albanians and Greece is to some extent an inflated media creation than a reflection of the reality.
Another section of the survey tried to gauge the perceptions of the Albanians on the progress their country has made in integration bid as well as the expectation on a possible date of accession. When asked to give their opinion on the progress made from 2009 to 2010, the largest group, 45.4% replied that the country has progressed somewhat. 17.6% on the other hand were of the opinion that a lot of progress has been made; a reduction of 6% when compared to 2009. A significant minority, 22.4% thought that little progress has been made while 11% were of the opinion that no progress at all has been achieved. The fact that a majority of Albanians think that their country has progressed somewhat or a lot is without a doubt a reflection of the much publicized application of Albania for EU candidate status as well as of the fact that the EU commented positively on the progress of the country when deciding to propose visa liberalization. Otherwise one would be hard pressed to find what progress has been made in the past year given the fact that ever since the elections of June 28th 2009, Albania has been in the grip of a serious political crisis that has seen the opposition boycott parliament and stage huge protests, thus making it almost impossible to implement any EU integration related reforms. The surprising fact is that most of the respondents seem to have simply ignored the repeated warnings of the EU, the Council of Europe and EU member states in the regress the country has made on the fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria as well as on the fight against corruption and freedom of the media. Perhaps this criticism accounts for the fact that the percentage of those who think a lot of progress has been made has dipped by 6 percentage points. It must also be pointed out that the better educated respondents were on the whole more skeptical of the achievements made by Albania.
“EU membership – we are
not ready”
For all the optimism in the opinions on the progress of Albania a full 50% of respondents responded that Albania is not yet ready to join the EU, while a considerable 36% do think their country is ready to join the Union. Once again the better educated category was more skeptical with 63.9% saying Albania is not ready. In what is becoming a pattern, the better educated respondents seem not only to be more skeptical and better informed, but also more demanding on what Albania must achieve in order to join the EU.
A majority of respondents, 54.3% said that the EU should not accept Albania before the country is ready for membership; a positive outcome compared to previous years when Albanians seemed to think that EU membership was up to Brussels rather than to the progress made by their country. Nevertheless a significant 41.8% continue to think that their country should be granted EU membership even if it does not meet the integration criteria and does not deserve to join the EU; a very high percentage that is indicative of the levels of misinformation and ignorance on the integration process. The really surprising figures however, concern the extremely high percentage of those who think that Albania will join the EU either in 2012 or in 2014. In fact there has been an increase by 15.9 percentage points in those who expect Albania to join in 2014, while only a puny 17.3% held the more realistic belief that Albania will join the
EU in 2020. One is at a loss to explain why so many Albanians would opt for these impossible dates. Ignorance of EU integration and of the distance the country has yet to cover coupled with an eagerness to join would perhaps explain these outlandish expectations.
On the issue of the various factors of integration that is of those factors that carry the greatest weight in the fulfillment of EU conditionalities, the survey revealed that the Albanian public has been significantly influenced in its views by the political crisis that has dominated public life in Albania since the general elections of June 2009. The need for free and fair elections as a factor of integration has suddenly jumped by 91 percentage points as compared to 2009, gaining top of the list with 87%. The economy as a factor of integration has also gained in importance standing at 71%. This result could well have been influenced by the deteriorating economic situation in the country, with growing prices, but it may as well reflect the impact that the criticism of the opposition on the economy has had on the public. Generally speaking all those factors that have figured prominently in the political discourse and the declarations of the EU and EU member states, such as respect for the rule of law, corruption, Albanian politics and organized crime have gained in importance. The only important factor that has remained in very low levels is religion, which was deemed to be an important factor of integration by only 18% of respondents. While in itself this figure constitutes a significant minority, the fact remains that a majority of Albanians, in a time honored tradition, do attach a great importance to religion.
Traveling to Europe – lack of visa and Šmoney
Some interesting information was gained by the section of the survey dedicated to the issue of free movement. Thus, perhaps unsurprisingly, 46.6% of Albanians have not traveled abroad for lack of a visa; a figure that goes to show the significant impact that the Visa Wall has had on the Albanians, especially if one keeps in mind that a full 97.1% of Albanians expressed their desire to travel to EU countries. However, the visa regime is not the only factor that has prevented Albanians to travel to EU member states or generally to countries that apply a visa regime. More than 40% of the Albanians admit that they have not traveled abroad because of economic reasons.
On the reasons for traveling in the past, the single largest group declared that they had been to visit their relatives residing in various EU countries, while only 6.3% declared that the purpose of their travel had been to look for employment. Another very important figure to be stressed is the considerable number of Albanians, namely 27.6%, which consider visa liberalization is important because it would make them feel equal with the citizens of the EU member states. It must also be stressed that only 3.7% of respondents declared that they would not return from abroad, an indication that the information campaign on the rules of the visa liberalization regime and the potential consequences of violating those rules, have penetrated to the public at large. Another important figure that has to be emphasized is the considerable number of Albanians, 27.6% who consider visa liberalization to be beneficial as it would make them feel equal to other Europeans. This idea has started to gain in importance among Albanian public opinion.2
1 See at www.aiis-albania.org
2 See Andi Balla, Tear Down This Wall, Tirana Times, September 10, 2010.
