Tirana Times Editorial
Tirana, Dec 22 – Albania’s population has shrank for the first time well below the peak level of more than 3 million at the fall of communism, according to the 2011 preliminary census data. Between 1960 and 1990 the country doubled in population, then the population growth stayed largely flat.
In the last decade, if the preliminary data holds, the country lost 7.7 percent of its population, standing now at 2.8 million. The decline is the result of massive immigration of Albanians to other countries, which kept Albania afloat in its poorest and difficult days through remittances, but could now turn into an impediment as Albania develops further and tries to compete in a globalized world.
The current European economic crisis and the wider stagnating global economy are dramatically shifting the immigration equation. Current trends show skilled EU citizens themselves from countries hurting in the bad economy are immigrating, often outside the continent altogether. Recent World Bank data shows 1.2 million Greeks immigrated since the crisis started. That’s equal to 10.8 percent of the population and went to far flung places like Canada and Australia.
Lower, but still very significant similar trends are taking place in Portugal, Spain and Ireland. But the movement of EU citizens outside the continent hasn’t stemmed the tide of poorer Eastern Europeans, Asians and Africans moving in.
But what does this mean for Albania? No doubt some of Albania’s large diasporas in places like Greece and Italy will themselves move to the new world, but the vast majority that will choose to leave their countries, will return home. We predict the general net result of this will be positive. Albania needs skilled and educated workers more than ever, and the crisis offers a golden opportunity for the country to shift from a consumer of remittances from abroad to a producer of wealth here at home.
Opening of new businesses, particularly in agriculture, will create the need for unskilled labor as well, helping dissuade the poorest people in Albania from leaving There are many currently who would immigrate if it were legally possible. They want to leave for the same reason so many other have left before them – a better life.
The reason immigration has cost Albania a lot is that the typical immigrant comes from the most vital part of the population, working age healthy adults. It is the segment that generates the most economic output and keeps the social safety net in place for the others.
The return of a portion of this population might cause some social friction but overall will likely generate more business, development and ultimately improve Albanian society.
The government is on the right track with discussing a series of programs, including a draft law aiming to support migrants’ return and reintegration into Albanian society. It’s a good start, but more concrete steps need to take place to help Albanian immigrants relocate and work in Albania.
Albanians in Greece and Italy have shown a lot of entrepreneurial spirit, opening many small businesses in services and construction which they can easily transfer to Albania. They should be helped as much as possible to do so, if they are having a hard time in their current host countries and decide to try their luck back in Albania.
At the end of the day, in a modern world, people will move. They will move from the villages to towns and cities, from small poor countries to large rich ones, but if Albania plays its hand right, it might just be able to get some benefits out of the current immigration equation, reversing its fortunes.
