After two decades of massive outward migration, Albania faces the costs and benefits of a dramatic demographic shift.
Albanians have known for years that massive immigration of its citizens has kept Albania’s population growth at bay. This week, they found out the population is actually shrinking at an astonishing rate of nearly 8 percent in a decade.
When Ines Nurja, Albania’s top statistician, gave the preliminary results of the 2011 census in a press conference, many Albanians were shocked to know the country’s population is now 2.8 million, down from 3 million a decade ago, a decrease of about 7.7 percent.
Ms. Nurja, head of the Albania Statistical Institute, said the sharp fall was due to “extensive immigration and a reduction in the birth rate.”
Faced with the new figure, the mood in Albania varied from disbelief from the census skeptics to anger from nationalists. But generally the decline is a logical conclusion of two decades of massive outward migration – a dramatic demographic shift that has come with costs and benefits.
The other factor, low birth rates are a pan-European problem נfrom Italy to Russia – but even that is tied to Albania’s primarily problem of massive immigration abroad.
Albania has one of the world’s highest per capita out-migration rates, according to the International Organization for Migration. In the European Union alone, the official Eurostat data shows Albanians are the third largest number of non-EU citizens living in EU countries. The top two are citizens of Turkey and Morocco, but they have respectively 25 times and 10 times the size of Albania’s population.
Eurostat data shows 1.1 million Albanian live in the EU, with Greece and Italy holding the lion’s share. In Italy alone, there are 467,000 Albanians. Eurostat has no official data for Greece on this, but the number of Albanians there is thought to be above 500,000. Albanian immigration to the EU has been aided by geographical proximity and cultural similarities, but Albanians have spread to all corners of the world. Census authorities in the United States and Canada report a combined 150,000 Albanians there.
A costly move
The reason immigration today is a double hit on Albania’s population is the fact that the typical immigrant comes from the most vital part of the population: young men, young families and their children. This is also the population segment that generates the most economic output and keeps the social safety net in place for the others.
Much of the Albanian immigration has been for unskilled labor, but more importantly, the country has also suffered a lot of brain drain. The government has put in place programs to stem brain drain and attract educated Albanians from abroad but the results have been mixed and the battle has been uphill since by 2004 Albania had lost 45 percent of its university professors and researchers to immigration. And the loss of mid-career intellectuals goes beyond skills.
“High-skilled emigrants to the U.S. and Canada are taking with them a considerable amount of money, which represents a net export of capital. It is also a drain of those who would otherwise likely become leaders and domestic investors, promoting Albania’s stability and development,” notes Kosta Barjaba, and Albanian scholar who did research on Albanian migration at Harvard University. “Moreover, studies show that once abroad, many highly educated emigrants do not work in their areas of specialization, including 74 percent in Greece, 67 percent in Italy, 58 percent in Austria, and 70 percent in the United States. While a few well-educated and high-skilled emigrants have succeeded in finding a job that matches their expertise, in general, Albania’s ‘brain drain’ is emerging as ‘brain waste.'”
Benefits and crisis
Thought declining as a result of the global economic crisis in recent years, due to its immigration rate, Albania is also one of the top per capita recipients of remittances in Europe, according to the World Bank. As a result, remittances have carried a large weight as a percentage of the GDP. It was 15 percent at its highest point, declining to 13.5 percent in 2007 and 10.7 percent in 2009, in the middle of the global economic crisis. Immigrants also spend billions of leks in their family visits to Albania each year.
Remittances from Albanians working abroad have been a lifeline for many Albanian families. But they are declining steadily, and the crises in Greece and Italy have only sped thing up. The latest data by the Bank of Albania, the country’s central bank, indicates migrant worker remittances have hit a new record low with the latest data available. Remittances dropped by 12 percent to 690 million euros in 2010, down from 781 million euros in 2009.
There is some evidence that Albanians migrants who have not been able to find work abroad are either returning or planning to return home, particularly from Greece, where pessimism has hit hard due to the prolonged economic crisis.
This opens new opportunities for Albania. Though some analysts fear social unrest will result when returning workers are unable to make a living in Albania, there are those who see a rosier picture.
Prime Minister Sali Berisha says Albania needs their skills and capital back to keep growing. In several media interviews he said the return of migrant workers from crisis-hit countries will ultimately help the Albanian economy.
“We will do everything we can to help our returning brothers convert their savings into successful businesses,” Mr. Berisha said in a recent government meeting.
To assist, the government has been discussing a series of programs, including a draft law aiming to support migrants’ return and reintegration into Albanian society. The primary target have been Albanian immigrantsworkingand living inGreece as these have led the trend to relocate their businesses andsavings to Albania thanks to the deep crisis in the host country. The government wants to give them fiscal incentives for bringing their capital and machinery to Albania where they can resume work immediately.
Albanians in Greece and Italy have shown a lot of entrepreneurial spirit, economic analysts note, opening many small businesses in services and construction which they can easily transfer to Albania.
Recent Albanian media reports have also featured several returned migrants with stories of being able to find plenty of room to open businesses in tourism, construction and agriculture in Albania, with skills and funds earned in Greece and Italy over the years.
Bringing migrants closer
More government attention would be welcomed by Albanians abroad. Beyond word of praise for their help through remittances, successive Albanian governments have done little to support Albanian immigrants abroad – largely failing to offer essential citizenship rights like voting and children’s birth registration for those living abroad.
Albanian citizens abroad are essentially disenfranchised. They can only vote if they return to Albania on ballot day, which is impossible for many, with some noting this suits Albanian politicians who don’t want to deal with a major voting block perhaps used to more accountable politicians in the countries in which they live.
Beyond voting, Albanian bureaucracy left many Albanian children born abroad virtually stateless for years, because their parents couldn’t come back to Albania to register them. Thousands of Albanian children born in Greece to Albanian parents went unregistered until recently when an NGO, TLAS, signed a memorandum of understanding with the government to help get these children on civil registers.
“There have been technical issues that made it impossible or difficult to register these children,” said Deputy Interior Minister Iva Zajmi at the signing ceremony, adding Albanian diplomatic and consular missions abroad will now help secure identification documents and registration for these children, which have a constitutional right to Albanian citizenship.
