It was supposed to be a reform which everyone wanted, everyone supported and everyone worked for. The reform in which the international community in Tirana, especially the offices of the American Embassy and the EU Delegation invested heavily with technical expertise, political lobbying and facilitation of dialogue whenever one side threatened boycott. The reform which would correct and breathe new life into the justice sector, hated, despised and feared by people as many national polls repeatedly showed.
Yet, after the final draft is on the table, after the Venice Commission has finished the process of issuing recommendations to it, there is a sudden turn in the behavior of several political actors and the process seems to be on the verge of collapse. The opposition has resumed talk of the reform being a tool for the political control of the judiciary. The Democratic Party (DP) has brought into the table 10 points to be discussed politically. All the points challenge directly the major infrastructure of the new system that is proposed.
They set to dismantle the draft and probably renegotiate the reform entirely. The opposition has complicated things even more by throwing into the mix the bizarre proposal to approve the reform only after preliminary elections are held. What makes the proposal bizarre is that the elections themselves, according to DP, have to be organized by a technical government. The junior coalition partner, the Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI) after insisting on the necessity of political dialogue and on having the support of the opposition for this process has taken a step back. Satisfied with the level of pressure they have applied to their senior majority partner they are back on the track reassuring the international community that their votes are solid in favor of the reform.
The senior partner, the Socialist Party (SP) is already talking post-failure scenarios with preliminary general elections to be called since the issue at stake is too big and citizens should have a stake at punishing those who allegedly are responsible. SP seems to take for granted that the overall public will know the DP is to blame. If the reform is not being approved within this month, Albania will miss out on an important opportunity. EU Commissioner Hanh is participating in the EU Albania High Level Dialogue at the very last days of March. Should the reform be approved by the Parliament by then, he can carry back to Brussels a position to recommend the opening of negotiations. If not, Albania will have to wait much longer.
So the question which any media and analysts are trying to answer now is who wants to kills this reform? Who would have most to gain if the process does not go through? How would the blame and shame battle go then? First alternative is that the opposition does not want the justice reform to live. They seem to have reason to believe the reform would institutionalize political interference. They must be aware that they are not going to be in power for some time so that would mean interference from the opposite camp. Ultimately if the reform goes through the majority hence the government would be the winner. The opening of negotiations would be an impressive jewel on the sparsely embellished crown of Rama’s mandate and a real asset in the next electoral campaign. Second alternative is that the SP itself has ‘discovered’ that preliminary elections would be in its favor should the reform fail.
The opposition has not recovered from subsequent losses in general and local elections and is in the worst position to face a completion right now. The SP has not been damaged, just scratched so far, by the internal dissent voices appearing this month on the verge of its party congress. One more year of governance in this dire economic context would bring one more year of discontent. The general elections could even be the opportunity for SP to recalibrate its own fragile relations with the junior coalition partner. Third alternative is that the political calculations of all sides now that the final draft is on the table do not match their interest. Some might be afraid that major corruption cases or even worse might be reopened.
New investigations will surface. Corrupted judges or prosecutors that have been under their orders might rebel when faced with pressure. This analysis takes for granted of course that the corrupted and criminal wing of the justice system in Albania has always worked against the reform and that they are only happy to see it slither. This part of the system is happy with all the alternatives. Time is running fast on the promise made to the US Secretary of State, John Kerry on his visit to Albania, by the Prime Minister Rama: that the justice reform would pass within March. With so many actors intent on revisions, reconsiderations, discussions, recalculations, speculations, delays about the justice reform the real question becomes: who will save it?
