Albania – Popular support for NATO membership

TIRANA, Feb.28- Albanians are overwhelmingly positive about integration into NATO. The main finding of a study conducted by the Albanian Institute for International Studies reveals that 91.3 percent of Albanians would vote yes in a referendum concerning entrance in NATO. The sample of 450 questioned people was carefully selected among four categories: armed forces, media, civil society and public administration. However Albanians do need more information in order to acquire an awareness of the costs of integration. The discourse over NATO despite intensifying over the prospectus of the Bucharest summit in April has left out important aspects over spending and requirements while fuelling positive feelings about the speed it has given to necessary reforms. The research project was carried out by the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) and funded by the US Embassy in Tirana, Albania, through Democracy ProgramThe full study will be presented at the AIIS International Conference ” Rethinking Balkan security Agenda, Tirana Mars 15, 2007. More information is available on the institution’ site: www.aiis-albania.org
Key findings: There are few issues that appeal to the Albanians more than their country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. However, while EU membership remains for the moment, a distant dream, in the recent months, expectations are raised that Albania might receive an invitation to join the Alliance in the Summit of Bucharest due in April 2008. The general belief is that a significant majority of the Albanians supports the integration of their country into NATO. However, no proper research was conducted on the subject. Further, while one can feel the existing support, it is much harder to ascertain the information Albanians possess on NATO and their country’s integration process.
Concerned about the proximity of the Summit of Bucharest and the high expectations for its possible invitation into NATO, the AIIS carried out a research project to assess the attitudes of four elite groups of the Albanian society on NATO and Albanian membership in NATO. The rationale behind the choice of the target groups (civil servants, military personnel, journalists and political analysts, and representatives of the civil society) was based on the belief that these groups, because of their social and formal positions, play a particular role as opinion leaders and decision makers.

High support for Albania’s NATO membership
The AIIS research shows that the support for Albania’s NATO membership is very high. 91.3% of all respondents would vote in favour of Albania joining NATO. The support vary for each target group with a high 94.6% yes voters in the military and a low 86.8% yes voters in the civil society. Only 1.8% of the general sample responded that they were against Albania joining NATO.

Perceived Importance of NATO Membership
Research shows that the Albanian elite consider the NATO membership as an important step. 62.3% of the respondents answered that they deemed this to be very important, while a further 31.3% evaluated NATO membership to be important, although not a priority. Only 2% replied that they did not find it important at all. The military was the group with the highest percentage of very important answers. 76.1% of the military personnel answered that they consider the NATO membership as very important.
Benefits Associated with NATO Membership
The largest group of respondents associates the NATO membership with improved national security for Albania. 34.8% of the respondents claimed that improved national security was the main reason why they would vote in favour of the NATO membership. 40.7% of the military personnel assigned the greatest importance to this reason for supporting NATO membership. 41.3% of the general sample assigned a grade of 10 points on a scale of 1 – 10 to NATO as a factor of security and peace. The second largest group, 25.4% of the respondents would have voted yes because NATO membership would strengthen democracy and the rule of law in Albania. The answer was expected because of the emphasis that NATO and NATO members have placed on reforms associated with the strengthening of democratic institutions and the rule of law. The third group, 23% of the respondents, (comprised mainly by journalists, analysts and representatives of civil society), believes that NATO membership would be to a recognition and confirmation of Albania’s Western values.

Costs of NATO Integration
Our research shows that the respondents appear willing to pay most of the costs associated with NATO integration. 79.2% of respondents support an increase of military spending up to 2% of the state budget. Only 9.2% of the general sample opposes this idea. Our research shows similar support for the financing of troop deployments, 74.9% in favour and 12.9% against. Nevertheless it is clear that the respondents are willing to pay the financial costs for NATO membership although the figures involved, although modest by NATO standards, amount to quite a burden for a small and not developed economy such as Albania.
The research shows that support is somewhat smaller when it comes to dangers that the Albanian troops would face in NATO missions with 51.6% pro and 31.9% against the deployment of the forces. It is clear that the Albanian public is quite sensitive to the “body-bag” phenomenon and reluctant to place Albanian men and women in harm’s way. We emphasise that no research have been undertaken to evaluate the attitudes on the deployment of the Albanian forces in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Readiness to Join
While the support for NATO membership is high, the responses to the question whether Albania is ready to join NATO give cause for caution. 43.5% of the respondents believed that Albania was ready to join NATO, while 38.2% replied no, and 18.3% were undecided. Civil servants were by far the most optimistic and 58.9% of them answered yes. They were followed by 57.6% of the military personnel who deemed Albania to be ready. It is problematic that only 35.2% of the journalists and analysts, and 18.7% of the representatives of the civil society believe that Albania is prepared to join NATO.
Research shows that asked about the progress made in the last two years, 31% of the respondents believed that a lot of progress was made and a further 44.5% of them responded that Albania had made some progress. The military personnel once again outscored the other groups. 51.1% of them replied that a lot of progress was made. The representatives of the civil society were unconvinced and only 11% of them supported the opinion that a lot of progress was made, 46.2% responded that some progress was made, and 34.1% believed that little progress was made. However, when asked to compare the progress made in Albania to that of other neighbouring countries, the respondents are confident that Albania had made better progress.

Military, other factors
In our research we tried to find out the respondents’ beliefs on the factors that influence the progress towards NATO and their respective importance. Unsurprisingly the military was deemed to be the most important factor. 42.3% judged it as the most important factor and 45.5% of the respondents assigned to this factor 10 points on a scale of 1 – 10. Significantly, politics received the second highest percentage of 10 points with 43.1% of the vote followed by failure of rule of law with 35% and the need for free and fair elections with 34.6%. Religion on the other hand was deemed to be the least important of all the factors.

Membership at Bucharest Summit?
Independent of their views on the progress of their country, a majority of respondents believes that NATO should invite Albania even if not ready. 58.3% responded positively to this question and only 23.4% believes that this is not going to happen. A further 18.3% were undecided. 68.5% of the military personnel and 64.4% of civil servants responded positively. Even 50.4% of the journalists and analysts replied positively. On one hand, these results can be interpreted as an expression of the desire to join NATO at all costs. Taking into account the opinions of the respondents on the progress Albania has made, it would appear that they expect NATO to meet them halfway and close an eye to any shortcomings as a reward for the progress made and the will to complete the reforms. On the other hand the results reveal the lack of local ownership over the process as the respondents seem to believe that the integration process starts with NATO and ends with Albania. The prevailing opinion is that if NATO has the will, it can easily accept Albania independent of its conditions.
Taking into consideration the previous results, it is somewhat difficult to find the reasons behind the expectations of the respondents concerning the probable moment when Albania is going to be invited to join NATO. Over 75% of the respondents believes that Albania would become member of NATO by year 2010 at the very latest. The single largest group, 35% of respondents believes that year 2010 is the likeliest year. The second highest percentage, 29.5% of the respondents believes that this will happen in 2008. This group however seems to confuse the invitation to join NATO with the membership in NATO. It is hard to say whether the expectations of the respondents were shaped by their trust on the progress made by Albania or due to some naive belief that NATO will grant Albania membership even if the country is not ready.

Information on NATO
The last research topic concerned the information the respondents had on NATO. The results revealed a worrying picture. Only the military personnel possesses satisfying information on NATO. 62% of them responded that they possess adequate information. Civil servants were divided. 43.8% of them responded positively, while 41.8% responded that they did not possess adequate information. It came as a shock that only 15.4% of journalist and analysts said that they possessed adequate information. The fact that they are supposed to play a very important monitoring and informing role in society and are so little informed is in itself a cause for concern. To make matters even worse, over 85% of the respondents claimed they were able to find information on NATO if they wanted to do so!