Although simplistic, an analysis of the 2009 using two different approaches (of the half full- half empty glass) would be in order. So, if we consider Albania’s membership in NATO, 2009 was without a doubt the year of Albania in the Balkans. FYROM lost its chance of membership in the Alliance – even though it looked like it needed it more than the other candidate states- formally because of the name dispute with Greece, but more essentially because of its domestic policies. During this year, the Albanian government submitted its accession bid to the European Union, the European Council approved it and Albania got the assessment questionnaire, events that can certainly be counted in the half-full glass approach.
Thus, the country has taken a long but certain path towards European integration. But the empty half of the glass seems rather frustrating. The EU did not lift the visa regime for Albanian citizens as it did for Serbia, Montenegro and FYROM.
The country’s economy was not affected by the global financial crisis during 2009, which may also be a simplistic reading if we consider Albania’s economic structure and the extent of its integration in the European and global market.
Meanwhile, this year that was supposed to mark a turning point regarding domestic policy, proved once more that the Albanian democracy is a non-functioning democracy. In fact, 2010 will be determined by all the events that took place during 2009.
Domestic politics: First it gets blurry, then it gets clear
Once more, Albania returned to deep political conflicts. Once more, an old trend of the past two decades since the fall of communism, a zero sum kind of politics prevailed. Six months have passed since the general elections and four since the constitution of the new parliament but the opposition continues to boycott it and does not recognize the election results yet.
An ancient Chinese theory may provide a solution. First it gets blurry and then it clears. This is what has happened during these twenty years of Albanian transition. Deep political disputes have aroused, only to be solved later, sometimes at a very high price. This happened in 1991, but it was understandable. The same happened in 1997 and it cost too much.
This political deadlock came when one least expected it. Unusually, Albanian politics seemed to be on a honeymoon. The first half of 2009 was dominated by consensus between the two major parties. More than what was necessary perhaps. The government and the opposition changed the constitution overnight, as it pleased them. They changed the electoral code – they fully agreed to change the rules of the game for the general elections of June 28th. Just when everyone thought that Albanian politics had left behind a shameful cycle of severe political conflict, the opposite happened. The Socialist Party, that lost the general elections with a head-to-head result, decided not to recognize it. The opposition declared a boycott of the Parliament. During the last months it has radicalized its position by demanding the opening of the ballot boxes and accusing the government of holding unfair elections. The SP closed this year with a cycle of protests and rallies throughout the country’s main towns, including of course the capital. It has also declared an escalation of the protests during 2010.
EU: The White Schengen list for Albanians – see you next year
Nevertheless, optimism reigns in Albania’s capital. The visa wall will fall for Albanians in 2010. The government states it will happen during the first half of 2010. Next Christmas at the latest. And then Albanians will be able to travel to EU countries without a visa. For more that half of Albanians, the possibility of free movement is about all that is expected of EU integration.
The myth of popular support for EU membership might fall if Albanians obtain free movement next year. Free movement will be a reality without membership. It happened for Serbia, Montenegro and FYROM and Albanians believe it will happen for them too by the end of next year at the latest. International relations experts in Tirana view the fairness of the Commission’s decision to omit Albania from the White Schengen List with some suspicion. At least the ‘grade’ we received was unjustifiably low. The arguments presented on border security, for instance, cannot hold entirely true. Albania is a NATO member and its borders are now borders of the Alliance. The same applies to the assessment of Albania’s foreign relations. Nevertheless, key conditions such as the introduction of biometrics in travel documents had not been fulfilled.
In Western media, the exclusion of Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina was mainly commented in light of the country’s Muslim majorities. For Albanians, this is a rather ridiculous argument, far from genuine. Beyond the technical aspects of the process, it is highly likely that hesitancy of EU countries to make the visa wall fall is linked to perceptions of a high migratory propensity of Albanians. But it has already happened. Around a million Albanians live and work in Greece and Italy mainly, as well as other EU countries. Clearly, migratory potentials have diminished.
In the meantime, the party for the fall of the Schengen Wall for those that think that it will also miraculously put an end to poverty, unemployment and the rest, will only last a few months.
Above all possible speculation, the question remains: if the political conflict between government and opposition continues in Albania, or even deepens, will the EU still be willing to offer a visa-free regime for Albanians?
The economic crisis- not a big deal
As the economies of the West have started their recovery, there are signs that Albania might feel the effects of the crisis in 2010. In 2009, Albania managed to maintain economic growth stability at 6%, which is very impressive in light of what happened to consolidated western economies. Only China and Albania felt immune to the most severe financial crisis in the world since the thirties. For different reasons, though. In Albania’s case this can be explained by three important arguments. First of all, the Albanian economy is not highly integrated with the European and global one. Secondly, it is a developing economy and a double digit economic growth is not a surprise but a rather normal occurrence and a necessity. Thirdly, the Albanian economy is strongly based on the remittances, which are considerable if we bear in mind that at least one million Albanians work and live abroad.
To keep it short, the Albanian economy was protected by its structure and its low degree of integration. But the first signs of a potential crisis have emerged and 2010 can be a difficult year. The level of economic growth is on a fast decline, with the government claiming that during 2010 will be 5 percent, nevertheless. On the other hand, according to the international financial institutions it can hardly reach 3 percent, which can still be an enviable figure, since we might be the only country in the continent with a +3 rate of economic growth.
The economic crisis in Greece will affect Albania. The Albanian economy is highly reliant on remittances and the incomes of the 700 thousand Albanians working in Greece have inevitably declined.
If one looks at old and new warnings of the IMF and Bank of Albania attentively, the government must set more realistic objectives and cut expenditures.
Likewise, we saw fewer investments in 2009 due to the global crisis. And the return of political conflict between government and opposition does not promise well for a favourable economic environment. The government holds that the economic crisis is no big deal while the opposition warns that 2010 will be a year of crisis for Albania. Instead of debating strategies to avoid or minimise the effects of the crisis, debates in Albania are more than ever focused on the presence of the crisis or not.
