By: Artan P쳮aska
apernaska@tiranatimes.com
Signs that the Albanian economy is somewhat disconnected from other economies, or that the Albanian economy may have been “waywarding” even so far astray of world economies that it finds itself in a different cycle, are numerous and may be more or less convincing.
One such sign seems to be the fact that Albanian citizens have been spending an extra 4% more on their holidays during the first quarter of 2009, at the same time that foreigners in Albania have been tightening their belts and spending 4 % less.
During this quarter, the behavior of foreign visitors in Albania seems to have been affected by the global crisis, while the behavior of Albanian holiday-goers seems to have been in tune with hard-line expectations of economic growth.
But as Albanians have been demonstrating behavior compliant with a positive growth cycle, the spiral of economic growth seems to be founded on a deepening deficit. The Bank of Albania (BoA) speaks of a “deficit in services” running parallel to the well-known deficit in trade exchange.
Deficit in services’ balance
Nearly 220 million Euros have been spent by Albanian citizens on their holidays abroad during the first quarter of the current year, according to data revealed by the Bank of Albania (BoA), quoted by the local press (Agon, 13.06.2009). That is 4 % more than in the first quarter of 2008.
The BoA speaks of a net deficit of nearly 10 million Euros, while it quotes a total of almost 212 million Euros in expenditures by foreigners in Albania.
The Bank of Albania (BoA) highlights an increase of the average daily expenditures and a slight prolongation of the stays of Albanians abroad, but reminds that the number of Albanian holiday-goers abroad has decreased from the first quarter of 2008 compared to the first quarter 2009. At the same time, BoA speaks of a slight decrease of the daily expenditures of foreign non-resident visitors in Albania.
High Volumes
What strikes is not only the fact that Albanians have been spending more abroad than foreigners in Albania, but also (and especially) the fact that Albanians have been spending abroad a very high volume of nearly 220 million Euros in a single quarter of 2009. This would suggest the spread of a much larger amount to be spent over the whole year. Since the first quarter is a cold-season, the expectancy for overseas holiday spending by Albanians should be even higher during the other quarters.
This volume surprises not only by its unexpected amount, its “ampleur”, but also by the fact that holiday destinations available to Albanian holiday-goers are restricted by the unfavorable visa policies of many of the countries with which Albania has relations. Only a few tourist destinations have a visa-free policy towards Albanian citizens, Turkey being one of them.
Albania is reported to have had a more liberal border-entry policy during the first quarter of 2008 as well as the first quarter of 2009, the time that is engulfed by the BoA report. Recently a new set of formalities on entry over the Albanian border has been adopted. These measures are not reported to be more restrictive, but just more formalistic. This week the Albanian Prime Minister made calls to all administration chains to reduce all unnecessary bureaucracy and make Albania an easy and hospitable land for foreigners.
The decrease of the volume of expenditures made by foreigners in Albania during the first quarter of 2009 does not seem to be affected by a corresponding decrease in visits. The more readily offered argument is that of the affects of the global crisis on the wallets and on the minds of those entering Albania.
A seasonal inversion of tendency is expected
A seasonal inversion of the tendency of less expenditure being realized in Albania is expected with the highly touristic periods of spring and especially summer. During these periods a higher influx of tourists and migrant holiday home-comers is expected in Albania. Every day, press reports speak of hundreds and thousands of entrants especially at the port of Durr쳠and at the border crossing-points with the neighboring countries. Moreover, the fact that Albania joined NATO this spring might serve this year as publicity for Albania in NATO countries or internationally for a discovery trip or summer tour in formerly “closed” Albania.
This special publicity might wipe out some of the unwanted effects of the global crisis on this year’s tourism in Albania. After a pre-electoral draw-back, an electoral “swell in” and “swell out” of Albanian migrants having come to vote, the post-electoral reports are speaking of rising numbers of holiday home-comers or foreign visitors.
On the contrary, the number of Albanians going abroad for the summer holidays is expected to decrease at least slightly. The affect of the global downturn is reported day after day to become progressively manifest in the media. The economic situation is expected to work also on the holiday budget of Albanian families. But as a profusion of colors and images of destinations out of Albania manifest themselves in publicity icons of affluent travel agencies, it is hard to abide by this expectancy.
