TIRANA, June 25 – The UK’s Leave decision in its Brexit referendum could have negative implications on Albania’s EU integration efforts and its economy by delaying the accession process and reducing investment, experts say.
Besnik Mustafaj, a writer and former foreign minister, says UK’s decision to leave the 28-member block will affect Brussels’ enlargement policy on EU aspirant Western Balkans countries, including Albania.
Commenting on a statement by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Mustafaj says “Albania is among the small countries who will have less Europe in the future, despite Albania’s choice being quite the opposite.”
“In the worst scenario, Albania would open its accession talks next year,” Mustafaj wrote in an opinion published on daily Panorama, adding that statements by EU leaders hint that enlargement will either stop or slow down.
Albania, an EU candidate country since mid-2014, is hoping to open accession talks next autumn after the expected approval of a long-awaited justice reform which has been set as a precondition for the negotiations.
Mustafaj says Albania could also face a reduction in its Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) funds.
“I think that in the coming weeks and months, Albania will not be officially told that its Brussels arrival has been postponed to an undetermined deadline. But, de facto, it is very likely that the IPA funds will shrink,” he says.
Economy experts say the Brexit decision could also have indirect implications on the Albanian economy by hitting investments at a time of unclear political and economic situation in the EU, Albania’s main trading partner and top foreign investor.
“In addition to direct consequences, it is unclear what the Brexit effect will be on capital markets and what happens in the EU will also have an effect on Albania’s foreign investment affecting growth,” says Arben Malaj, an economy expert.
Ardian Civici, another expert, says the EU will also become more reluctant to finance development projects in the Western Balkans, including Albania, until the Brexit situation clarifies.
Some 52 percent of Britons voted in favour of leaving the EU on the June 23 referendum, a decision which led Prime Minister David Cameron to announce he will step down by October. The pound tumbled to a 30-year low while Moody’s rating agency downgraded the UK’s outlook to “negative” following the vote.
