At least 40 percent of the Berisha government will be overhauled after the February 18th electoral debacle. Sources close to the Democratic Party inform TT that besides the Ministry of Interior, the overhaul will touch the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Economy and Energy, Ministry of Transport and Public Works, Justice, Integration and Culture and Tourism. Quite possibly, Mr. Berisha may even change the structure of the executive by increasing the number of ministries in order to satisfy the ever hungrier allies of a disoriented majority. Already an agreement has been reached with the Democratic Christian Party (DCP) to join the government by taking control of one ministry. With the exception of the Republican Party which is already represented by the Minister of Defense, all the other allies are asking for more and Mr. Berisha will have to respond positively to some of the requests.
Although the changes were foretold before the elections, the electoral performance of the DP and its allies may have fallen victim to the weak performance of the executive which calls for immediate changes despite internal dynamics of the governing coalition.
Why Overhaul the Government
The outcome of the elections makes immediate changes in the executive an unavoidable imperative. The loss of Tirana and almost all other main urban areas to the united opposition raises serious question marks on the effectiveness of the administration in its first sixteen months. Thus, while the appointment of someone on the vacant post of Minister of Interior who bravely resigned to run for the coveted seat of Tirana’s mayor and to include the DCP in the executive were a matter-of-fact even before the elections, the rest of the changes are necessitated by the weak performance of the ruling coalition and by the loss of most areas of local government which voted for the current ministers in the last parliamentary elections.
Two elements are at play here: first, the DP needs to preserve its coalition at a time when the president’s election is knocking at the gates while the opposition has vowed to not give its consensus in order to force early elections. Second, the executive needs fresh energies and fresh ideas in order to perform better and climb out of the hole that the results of February 18th made glaringly obvious.
Changes and Currents within DP: Bamir Topi candidate for President?
Despite Mr. Berisha’s much trumpeted ‘exemplary’ control of the DP, different groups with opposing interests exist within the DP as well. And these groups seem to have been reactivated by the talk of executive overhaul.
One of the possible candidates for the very important post of Minister of Interior is the deputy leader of DP and chief of its parliamentary group, Mr. Bamir Topi. He was one of the few voices within DP to admit that the DP lost the local elections and needed to reflect on its performance. While it seems that Mr. Berisha is ready to make use of Mr. Topi’s services in government, Mr. Topi seems to be not quite willing to make them available. According to some DP sources, Topi is biding his time for the post of President of the Republic. However, he refuses to pronounce himself publicly on the matter. But, he has been one of the few to reject publicly the possibility of the DP handing over the presidential seat to the ex Socialist leader and ex arch enemy of Berisha, Mr. Fatos Nano.
The pool of new DP recruits for executive positions is not difficult to identify: Astrit Patozi, Bujar Nishani, Majlinda Bregu and Pre硚ogaj are some of the candidates waiting to receive offers from the Prime Minister.
The AlliesŠthe grand desires of the small
Other than the CDP whose numbers in parliament warrant a seat in government, the Liberal Democratic Union (LDU) is also demanding a seat at the executive table. The LDU seems to be greatly encouraged by its solid 2.4 percent performance in the local elections. The other allies also performed better than ever before: the Agrarians and the Reformed Democrats did quite well as did the Republicans and the Christian Democrats. Although their true test will be the parliamentary elections, buoyed by their electoral performance and sensing blood from the injured DP are demanding more from the executive. But, for the time being, only the Christian Democrats are sure to gain a post in the new government.
It is unclear whether the smaller allies will keep the same portfolios they have had up to now. Some of them have openly requested the exit of the Agrarians from the executive, but no one yet knows whether Mr. Genc Pollo will continue to head the Ministry of Education and Science or Mr. Barka will keep his seat at the head of the Ministry of Work and Equal Opportunities.
Quality of Governance
Despite the providential circumstances that dictate the need for changes in government such as in Interior and Health Ministries, the changes have the goal to improve the government performance for the center-right coalition. A number of projects under the mandate of the Ministry of Transport have been unjustifiably postponed which raises a great question mark over the name of Mr. Lul컩m Basha as head of that Ministry. Similarly, the spectacular failure of the Ministry of Economy and Energy to do anything about the economy or the energy crisis suggests the need for changes in that Ministry as well.
Another change may occur in the Ministry of Justice. While there have been a great many clashes between the Ministry and other judicial institutions such as the High Council of Justice and the Prosecutor General, Mr. Bum詠can hardly be blamed for them or for the government always coming up on the losing side of these little wars. The decision to undertake these conflicts were entirely political decisions of the governing majority rather than part of the strategy of the Minister to reform the Albanian judiciary.
Another change may be in the Ministry of Culture and Tourism whose wars with the Football Federation and political appointments at the head of the country’s major cultural institutions have left a bitter taste for the public.
According to the sources, it is quite possible that the Prime Minister will change the structure of the government. First, the Ministry of Interior may lose its oversight of local government which will become a new Ministry. At a time when the main centers of local government will be controlled by the opposition, the Prime Minister needs to find a “soft candidate” to head the Ministry of Local Government in order to avoid hard confrontations with the opposition. Second, it is also possible that the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will be divided in two despite Mr. Berisha’s early goal of heading a small government.
The Secure Posts
Despite the changes, the nucleus of the Berisha cabinet is likely to continue as is. Foreign Minister Mustafaj, Finance Minister Ridvan Bode, Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu, Education Minister Genc Pollo and Equal Opportunities Minister Kosta Barka are most likely to stay. While the latter two may be shifted around, their belonging to allied parties ensures that they will most likely keep their posts.
The ministers with an uncertain future are: Minister of Economy and Energy Genc Ruli, Minister of Justice Aldo Bum詬 Minister of Integration Arenca Trashani, Minister of Public Works Lul컩m Basha and Minister of Agriculture Mr. Jemin Gjana. Some may fall victim to their own performance. The others may fall victim to coalition demands. But, in the final analysis no one can be certain of the changes to come except for Mr. Berisha of course.
