TIRANA, Feb. 23 – Albania’s population continued declining in 2015 fuelled by an asylum exodus that saw about 43,000 people leave the country, mainly to Germany, according to data published by the country’s state statistical institute, INSTAT.
The mass migration was compensated by about 26,000 migrants who permanently returned home, likely from crisis-hit neighboring Greece and Italy, the country’s top trading partners where an estimated 1 million migrants live and work.
Although having drastically declined, births exceeded deaths by about 16,000 in 2015, INSTAT reports. The number of births in 2015 dropped by 2,534 while deaths increased by 1,700 compared to 2014.
As a result Albania’s population is estimated to have declined by 6,276 residents to 2.88 million in 2015 with the median age at 34.7 years, compared to 30.6 years in 2001 and 26 years in 1990 just before the collapse of the communist regime when Albania boasted one of the world’s youngest populations.
Males continue dominating the country’s population with the sex-selective abortions believed to the key reason behind. In 2015, there were 109.5 boys for each 100 girls.
“Traditionally Albanian families have favored boys over girls for two main reasons: the inheritance of the family name and the prospect of boys growing up to become breadwinners,” reports shows.
The region of Tirana accounts for 28 percent of the country’s population with an estimated 812,000 residents in early 2016, followed by the southwestern region of Fier with 313,000 and Elbasan with 299,000.
The World Bank has warned the recent fertility decline in Albania has been dramatic and rapid. “For example, the shift from an average fertility rate of over five children per woman to below the population replacement rate took two centuries in France but only 34 years in Albania,” the World Bank says in its Golden Ageing report.
Although having one of the lowest GDP per capita among EU aspirant countries, Albania still boasts the highest life expectancy and one of the top fertility rates among the seven EU candidate and potential candidate countries, according to a report by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Data shows that at 76.4 years for men and 80.3 years for women in 2014, an average of 78.35 years on both sexes, Albania’s life expectancy was up to 3.2 years higher compared to other regional EU aspirants including Montenegro, Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.
However, life dynamics nowadays has brought down fertility in Albania, from the highest total fertility rate in Europe to the current level of 1.7 children per woman, well below the replacement level that is required to sustain the population size.
Once the country with the highest fertility rate under communism, Albania saw its average number of children per woman drop to 1.78 in 2014, down from 3 in 1990 just before the transition to a multi-party system and a record 6 in the early 1960s, which has contributed to the population shrink and ageing. The Eurostat report ranks Albania as the country with the third highest fertility rate among EU aspirants after Kosovo’s 2.2 and Turkey’s 2.17, well below the replacement level that is required to sustain the population size.
Shrinking populations pose a formidable fiscal challenge, placing public finances of countries under pressure on increased spending on pensions and health, reduce economic growth and make it more difficult to reduce public debt as a share of GDP, according to an IMF research paper.
Albania, which is experiencing for the first time the beginnings of the population’s ageing has already undertaken reforms in the pension system by approving a gradual increase in the retirement age, but declining fertility rates and immigration remain serious threats.
“These developments would place public finances of countries under pressure, through two channels. First, spending on age-related programs (pensions and health) would rise. Second, declining populations can reduce economic growth and, if not accompanied by a commensurate reduction in interest rates, make it more difficult for countries to reduce their public debt as a share of GDP,” says the IMF.
The 2011 census shows Albania’s resident population dropped by 8 percent to 2.8 million people compared to a decade earlier due to lower fertility rates and high immigration. Prospects are pessimistic as the population is expected to undergo another decline in the next few decades.
Large-scale involuntary migration, locally known as the asylum exodus, has emerged as the top concern for doing business in Albania after more than 50,000 Albanians left the country in 2015, mainly to Germany, with a negative impact on the small ailing economy of 2.8 million residents, according to a survey published in the latest Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum.
Large-scale involuntary migration was the top concern for 78 percent of respondents about doing business in Albania for the next ten years, the survey showed.
Nearly 52,000 Albanians applied for asylum in Germany between January and November 2015, an increase of around 645 percent on the previous year, Deutsche Welle cites Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF). The exodus was mainly a result of economic reasons but also disappointment and hope for better life although German officials have made it clear no Albanian will be granted asylum for economic reasons.
The exodus has already had an impact on the Albanian economy which is struggling with poor consumption levels and sluggish lending due to a high level of non-performing loans.
