Retail sales grew by 5.5 percent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2012, compared to only 0.2 percent in the third quarter when they ended their downward trend
TIRANA, March 26 – Retail sales accelerated their growing trend in the final quarter of 2012 when they grew by 5.5 percent year-on-year and 12.5 percent compared to the third quarter of 2012, hinting improved performance of the economy in late 2012. INSTAT data show retail sales of food and beverages in non-specialized stores rose by an average of 13 percent and dropped by 4 percent in specialized stores. Trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles rose by an average of 7.5 percent in the final quarter of 2012, mainly due to a double-digit increase in the sale of fuel. INSTAT reports a 6.3 percent decline in retail sales of household equipment and 4 percent drop garment, footwear and leather products.
Data published by the country’s Institute of Statistics show retail sales ended their negative growth rates in the third quarter of 2012 when they grew by a mere 0.2 percent year-on-year and 10 percent compared to the previous second quarter. INSTAT did not publish employment rates in the retail sales sector which has been shrinking for several quarters.
In the first and second quarters of the year, retail sales dropped by 8.3 percent and 1.2 percent respectively.
Government revenue during the first two months of this year indicate the Albanian economy continues suffering and domestic consumption, the key driver of growth, remains sluggish.
Data show consumption remains poor as indirectly shown by the performance of the value added tax which dropped to 15.5 billion lek, down 9 percent compared to the first two months of 2012. After registering a double digit decline last year, profit tax rose by 13 percent while excise taxes collection dropped by 6.5 percent.
Facing a sharp drop in revenues, the Albanian government has been forced to revise downward its overoptimistic GDP growth rates and increase debt levels several times during the past year. The latest review was made last January in the 2013-2015 economic and fiscal programme where the GDP growth forecast for 2012 was cut to 1.5 percent down from an overoptimistic 4.3 percent targeted in the initial 2012 budget. Meanwhile, public debt, whose 60 percent of the GDP ceiling was lifted in late 2012, is expected to rise from 61.9 percent in 2012 to 63.8 percent at the end of 2013, compared to a target of 62.6 percent in the 2012 budget.
The Albanian government expects growth to accelerate from 3.1 percent in 2013 to 4.1 percent in 2015, twice higher compared to what international financial institutions have forecast.
With an average growth rate of 1.5 percent during the first nine months of 2012, the Albanian economy is reflecting clear signs of crisis from the Euro area partners and developments at home where domestic consumption and exports remains sluggish, and public debt now beyond the previous legal ceiling of 60 percent of the GDP poses a real threat to the country’s macroeconomic stability.
