Russia Benefits From Kosova

By Janusz Bugajski
Russia’s delaying tactics in United Nations Security Council decisions over Kosova are motivated by several strategic ambitions. The Putin regime is determined to raise Russia’s stature as a major international player in competition with the United States, to divide the NATO Alliance, and to drive wedges between Europe and America.
The pending decision on Kosova is reminiscent of the Cold War when European security was ultimately determined by relations between Washington and Moscow. The major difference with the Cold War is that more opportunities are available to undermine the Western alliance because Russia poses as a benign global power and not an ideological and militaristic empire.
Russia’s proposal to send a UN Security Council mission to Kosova this month is part of its grand plan to discredit Martti Ahtisaari’s plan for final status and to launch a new process of negotiations without time limits. The Kremlin calculates that this can split the EU and weaken the U.S. position. As a bonus, it may also provoke violence in Kosova that will reinforce Moscow’s assertions that you cannot give independence to people incapable of governing themselves.
The Bush administration will face a stiff test to gain unanimous Security Council agreement on the Ahtisaari plan. It intends to uphold the original timetable by which a new UN resolution on Kosova is issued by the end of May. The Security Council can simply declare resolution 1244 invalid or fully accept the Ahtisaari package and pass a new resolution. Either scenario would be acceptable to Washington.
However, as Moscow applies other delaying ploys, Washington may become more desperate and offer Putin concessions and advantages in other arenas as the price for approval or abstention in a Security Council vote. There are several quid pro quo arrangements that Moscow may be calculating as the price for Kosova’s status. They revolve around three issues: Russia’s regional influence, strategic capability, and economic benefit.
Moscow is intent on restoring its regional dominance in the former USSR. The key battleground with Washington has been in Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. All three states are to be brought under firmer Russian control. To accomplish these objectives, Moscow will insist on a diminished American role among these states.
It may also demand a permanent postponement of NATO membership for all three republics, non-interference in the “frozen conflicts” inside Moldova and Georgia, no condemnations of Russian military incursions into Georgia, and the long-term prolongation of Russian military bases in Georgia and peace-keeping units in Moldova. Moscow may also require Washington not to support President Viktor Yushchenko in the escalating power struggle with Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine.
Russia’s regime operates according to zero sum calculations whatever pleasant sentiments are issued about international cooperation and strategic partnerships. In this vein, Kremlin propagandists have latched on to the planned U.S. missile defense system in Central Europe as an alleged threat to Russian national interests. To block development of the missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia is provoking disputes within the EU and between America and Europe. In return for greater accommodation over Kosova, Russia may seek to benefit from America’s anti-missile technology while modernizing its own nuclear arsenal.
Regarding economic benefits, Russia may demand a faster track to World Trade Organization (WTO) membership with full U.S. support. Moscow can also seek increasing access to Western markets, especially in key areas such as energy and telecommunications, without opening up strategic elements of its own economy.
Noone should be surprised by Moscow seeking advantages from Kosova. The major question is whether Washington is willing to make concessions elsewhere in order to gain Russia’s support in the Security Council. Rather than surrendering to Russian political blackmail, Washington can simply bypass the UN process by supporting Kosova’s declaration of independence, recognizing the new state, and encouraging its allies to follow suit.