By Paolo Quercia
Rome, Mar. 14 – With a protest-vote blended with strong dissent and sovereignty tones, the recent elections in Italy contradicted most of the political forecasts and left most analysts and political leaders astonished.
The greatest majority of Italians expressed their discontent deciding not to cast their vote at all: 13 million (the figure had never so high since 1948) decided not express any preference at all.
The outgoing Prime Minister Monti and his centrist coalition was the main loser of the elections and his party has now little relevance in the new political situation.
The real winner is the Beppe Grillo movement (M5S), a strange mix of leftist populism, anti-establishment positions and anti-EU, sovereignty stances. It was able to attract 1 vote out of 5 (8.6 million). According to some forecasts, it is still able to grow, especially attracting more protest voters from the entire political spectrum.
Before the vote, Mr. Grillo declared that his movement will question every existing European treaty and decisions, including Bolkenstein, Common Agricultural Policy, Common Fisheries Policy, as well as Italian foreign debt.
He also proposed a strategy of exit of Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece from the eurozone and the creation of a weak-euro currency area. The Partito Democratico, the Italian social-democrats headed by Pier Luigi Bersani, obtained almost the same vote as Grillo, but practically lost the elections because it is not in the position to form a government: not alone (as it was wrongly polled before the elections) nor with its centrist ally Mario Monti. It must now choose between a dangerous and unpredictable alliance with Grillo’s MPs (refused by Grillo himself) or with its arch-enemy Berlusconi.
Berlusconi, who received, 7.3 million votes, survived politically and his party remained the third political force in the parliament. Theoretically, it is the most realistic partner for the creation of a large-coalition style government between center left and center right. But the center-left party holds a veto against political cooperation with Berlusconi, and such an option seems not very likely.
The new parliament, that starts work on March 15 has the hard task of electing the new presidents of the two chambers, the president of the republic and to come up with a new government in a very complex political situation, working under the pressure of a growing social dissatisfaction and skepticism for both the Italian and European political institutions.
Foreign policy and the role of Italy in the Balkans or in the Mediterranean was practically absent from the electoral campaign and from the programs of the main political parties.
The outgoing president of the republic, Giorgio Napolitano remains a strong factor of stability in an otherwise confused political spectrum.
Paolo Quercia is a political analyst based in Rome.
