The elections in Macedonia seen from the demographic point of view

The presidential and the mayors’ elections held in Macedonia Sunday, 21 March, offer an interesting though partial and to some degree refutable view of the composition of the Macedonian electorate as compared to the overall Macedonian population. Referring to the State Election Commission of Macedonia, the turnout at the presidential election was 56.44 %. On results based on data following the processing at 2823 polling places or 94.86 % of the votes cast, the Albanian candidates for presidency Imer Selmani (New Democracy), Agron Buxhaku (Democratic Union for Integration) and Mirushe Hoxha (Albanian Democratic Party) totaled 250643 votes (25.58 % of the votes). The Macedonian candidates totaled 728973 votes (74.41 % of the votes). The State Election Commission of Macedonia states that the election was not held in 134 polling stations. The voting participation of the Albanian electors compared to the Macedonian electors is unclear, and the general turnout at last Sunday’s elections is lower than, for example, at the 2002 elections. Many more Albanians from Macedonia (calculated in ratio to the stock of Albanians living in Macedonia) are reported to live abroad than Macedonians living abroad (calculated in ratio to the stock of Macedonians living in Macedonia). Many of them might not vote. But, if we were to refer to former elections, Albanian participation in the elections has generally been poorer than the Macedonian participation.
Cross-voting is thought to be low and should not account yet as a major contradictor to the ethnic vote, though the most successful Albanian candidate Imer Selmani (14.99 % of the votes) called for “an Obama effect in Macedonia” previous to the elections. The population in age to vote (over 18 years of age) might count out of the electoral body a larger part of the younger Albanian population than the Macedonian counterpart. The Macedonians consider the Albanians as the larger ethnic group that has a younger age structure than themselves. This factor, as well as the historic tendency of Albanians voting less than the Macedonians might induce to think that, with more than 25 % of the voters in the last presidential elections, the Albanians might represent in Macedonia an ethnic body of nearly 30 % of the total Macedonian population. Whatever be the accurate percentage of Albanians in Macedonia, the Albanian vote will be perhaps determinant in electing the country’s future president in the election runoff of 5 April.