WB warns developing economies to face long-term tough times

TIRANA, June 18 – Developing countries should prepare for a long period of volatility in the global economy by re-emphasizing medium-term development strategies, while preparing for tougher times, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP), June 2012.
A resurgence of tensions in high-income Europe has eroded the gains made during the first four months of this year, which saw a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries and an easing of risk aversion among investors. Since May 1st, increased market jitters have spread. Developing and high-income country stock markets have lost some 7 percent, giving up two-thirds of the gains generated over the preceding four months. Most industrial commodity prices are down, with crude and copper prices down by 19 and 14 percent, respectively, while developing country currencies have lost value against the US dollar, as international capital fled to safe-haven assets, such as German and U.S. government bonds, the World Bank says.
“Global capital market and investor sentiment are likely to remain volatile over the medium term – making economic policy setting difficult. In this environment, developing countries should focus on productivity-enhancing reforms and infrastructure investment instead of reacting to day-to-day changes in the international environment,” said Hans Timmer, Director of Development Prospects at the World Bank.
However, should the situation in Europe deteriorate sharply no developing region would be spared. Developing Europe and Central Asia is especially vulnerable because of its close trade and financial ties with high-income Europe, but the world’s poorest countries will also feel the fall out – especially countries that are heavily reliant on remittances, tourism or commodity exports or that have high-levels of short-term debt.
“Where possible, developing countries need to move to reduce vulnerabilities by lowering short-term debt levels, cutting budget deficits and returning to a more neutral monetary policy stance. Doing so will provide them with more leeway to loosen policy, should global conditions take a sharp turn for the worse,” said Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics and lead author of the report.
The World Bank expects the Albanian economy to grow by 1.6 percent in 2012, 2.5 percent in 2013 and 3 percent in 2014. The current account deficit is also expected to drop to -10.8 percent in 2012. The report warns high levels of short-term debt makes countries vulnerable to a freezing of international capital flows. Albania’s short-term debt stood at 50 percent of currency reserves at the end of 2011, having increased by 10 percent compared to the end of 2010.