2008 marked important developments for Albania and the Albanians. Of particular and historical significance are two events: Albania received its invitation to join NATO and the independence of Kosovo. Both of these historical developments are ripe with opportunity to boost the strategic weight of the Albanian factor in the Balkans.
Like never before, the year drawing to a close and the new year approaching are closely linked with each other in terns of Albanian policy, economy and society. In April 2008 Albania received its invitation to join NATO, while in less than three months, in April of next year, it is expected that the Alliance will admit Albania as a member.
2008 was an important year of decision-making and developments for the Balkans, including Albania. With Kosovo’s independence, the political map of the Balkans changed. Kosovo’s independence is expected to breathe more oxygen into political cooperation, and especially into economic cooperation in the Balkans. However, beyond the political aspect, the independence of Kosovo is tantamount to extending the Albanian market in the Balkans.
Whereas during this year, the majority of the EU member countries ratified Albania’s SAA with the EU, next year, its expected that Albania will apply for membership to the EU. 2009 will be a key year for Albania, if we recall that next Summer the country will have political elections.
A number of strategic projects in infrastructure, like the Durres-Kukes northbound motorway, are expected to be completed next year. During 2008, Albania was exhibited as a fine opportunity for foreign investments, which are still few and far between in the Albanian economy, in comparison at least with all the other countries in the region.
NATO expansion – the year of Albania
2008 was, indisputably, a year of political importance. 2008 could be regarded as the year of Albania (and Croatia). After more than one and a half decades, since the collapse of communism, Albania, Europe’s most isolated and stalinist state, is to become a member of the Western Alliance. For Albania, the invitation to join NATO is the single most important, historical event since the collapse of communism in 1992. The Albanians regard membership to the western alliance as the correction of an historical abnormalcy caused by the totalitarian regime. This must also be the explanation of the spectacular support (93 per cent of the Albanians would vote in favour of NATO membership if there were to be a referendum) of Albanian society to join NATO, a support which is beyond any comparison with current members of the Alliance or other countries aspiring to this membership.
Albania: no crisis here
Difficult to believe! In the last week of 2008, a government institution, made public the fact that economic growth in Albania had finally reached 9.99 per cent. This reminds you of the astonishment of the Albanians in the Eighties’, when the government of the time declared that Albania had won an international prize for its food products. And that happened at a moment when the poverty and hunger of the Albanians were no more or no less than that suffered by the people of North Korea today. However, beyond the joke of world economic records, how was the economic year that the Albanians are leaving behind and what is the prognosis for 2009?
Whilst the almost world wide crisis of the financial industry is displaying clear cut signs of a trend towards an economic crisis, Albania appears to be protected. It could quite easily be that the Albanian financial system is more protected. Taking into account the fact that they operate in a state that is still weak and a society which is not so adapted to the financial market, the banks in Albania have not implemented liberal procedures in their granting of credits and loans. Another reason why Albania appears to be protected from the financial or economic crisis is linked with the real situation of the Albanian economy: The Albanian economy still operates in isolation from the European finance and economic markets, and even more so from these world markets. But what has begun to happen is that less and less remittance monies are being sent from our emigrants abroad. Economic experts say that the deline of remittance monies will be drastic during 2009. The financial crisis, which is fast being transformed into an economic crisis, could quite easily shrink investment possibilities, which Albania desperately requires.
Politics zero sums game
One year ago, it must have seemed a little strange to a person unfamiliar to Albanian politics, why the Christmas Tree and all the other decorations on and around the building of the Prime Ministers Office were a deep blue colour, whilist the rest of the capital had been decked out all in red. The explanation is easy for an Albanian to grasp. The christmas tree in the vicinity of the PM’s Office was blue because that is the colour of center right politics, while the big christmas tree in the center of Tirana and the rest of the street decor for Christmas and the New Year bathed everyhting in a red light because that is the political colour of the Mayor of Tirana who is also the Chairman of the Socialist Party.
This is just a simple detail, but which symbolizes the significant polarisation and – permament elements of Albanian politics. A similar situation is seen this year too, but the gap is much wider and not only in the colours of xmas decorations. As in most other aspects of political life, the Ruling Majority and Opposition are facing one another across a bitter divide over one of the laws linked with the past and the future: the Lustration Law. The Opposition says this law is anti-constitutional, while the government says the opposite. What is crystal clear is easy for everyone to understand – the government has drafted a law to politically utilise the past and not to make a break with the past. This is not all. The lack of consensus between the government and the opposition proves another truth, simple but essential: Laws are drafted in Albania bearing in mind concrete individuals.
Corruption’s dossier : All animals are equal but some are more equal than others ?
In one of his famous books, George Orwell says that all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others. In Albania everyone talks about the Rule of Law, but everyone implements the slogan of George Orwell. In 2009, its expected that the opposite will be proven. At least for three very important cases on which inquiries continue-: the first the explosion of Gerdec on 15 March, 2008, where 26 persons lost their lives adn another 300 received various degrees of injuries. Was this a corrupt racket based on arms trafficking? Was this an outright case of state capture? The second file: the allegations raised related to the Durres-Kukes road. The third file: the so-caleld Faslic file, which once again raises serious question marks about whether or not certain animals are more equal than others, as George Orwell says.
Elections, Elections and more Elections.
Whilst the plan is to have political elections next Summer, this year which is drawing to close has been a very heated electoral year in itself. But, parliamentary elections, which for a consolidated democracy constitute a routine process, in teh case of Albania these elections will be decisive in its break away once and for all from its communist heritage. Almost all electoral processes in Albania have been controversial and a long way from standards for a democratic country. Next year Albania will realise elections of a standard implemented by any NATO memebr country.
